Esports CS:GO DFS Playbook: May 3

Tony Lavender

eSports

Published: May 02, 2022

Updated: May 04, 2022

Apeks (World rank: #35) vs. GamerLegion (World rank: #43) - 4:00 A.M. ET

Moneyline Odds: Apeks (-205) | GamerLegion (+165)

Map Handicap: Apeks -1.5 (+150) | GamerLegion +1.5 (-185)

Map Total: Over 2.5 (+115) | Under 2.5 (-140)

This is a best-of-three online series for Pinnacle Cup IV - Swiss round 3 (teams with a 2-0 record). Winner advances to playoffs.
Apeks - Rating at event: nawwk 1.28 | jkaem 1.13 | STYKO 1.07 | AcilioN 1.07 | chawzyyy 0.99
Apeks - Rating past three months: jkaem 1.15 | nawwk 1.14 | STYKO 1.05 | AcilioN 0.97 | chawzyyy 0.97
GamerLegion - Rating at event: iM 1.36 | isak 1.11 | eraa 1.07 | Zero 1.05 | RuStY 0.98
GamerLegion - Rating past three months: iM 1.20 | eraa 1.06 | isak 0.99 | Zero 0.98 | RuStY 0.98

H2H Data:

These teams faced in January at Pinnacle Winter Series 1 Regionals and GamerLegion won 2-1 (19-17 Ancient / 12-16 Overpass / 16-14 Mirage). Jkaem topped the leaderboards with 77 kills and a 1.17 Rating across three maps.

Map Projections:

GamerLegion removes Dust2

Apeks removes Nuke

GamerLegion picks Overpass

Apeks picks Inferno

GamerLegion removes Ancient

Apeks removes Vertigo

Mirage is left over

Prediction/Narrative: Apeks wins 2-0.

GamerLegion won when these teams last met, however, that was the very first official match that Apeks played with this roster. Apeks have certainly improved since then, plus the series from January was really close with one map going to overtime, so I have to imagine that Apeks will have a much better showing this time. Apeks have a 35-23 W/L record across 58 maps played in the past three months, and they have at least a 57.1% win rate on Ancient, Overpass, Dust2, Mirage and Inferno during that time. They have been elite on Inferno with a 9-1 W/L record along with a 77.7% 5v4 conversion rate and a 37.1% 4v5 conversion rate. GamerLegion have been solid in the past three months as well with a 38-31 W/L record across 69 maps played, but their map pool just isn’t nearly as deep as Apeks. The only map that GamerLegion have at least a 57.1% win rate on is Mirage, but I’d still favor Apeks on that map considering they were on a five-win streak prior to their loss yesterday to BIG. Overall, I just don’t see much of an opportunity for GamerLegion in this series, and I think the maps favor Apeks enough to where this could easily be a 2-0 sweep. Draftkings also has GamerLegion as the more expensive team, which makes Apeks an even more attractive option as (-205) moneyline favorites.

On Overpass, jkaem leads Apeks with a 1.18 Rating and 1.22 K/D ratio across six maps played in the past three months.
On Inferno, jkaem leads Apeks with a 1.26 Rating, while nawwk leads with a 1.43 K/D ratio across 10 maps played in the past three months.
On Mirage, nawwk leads Apeks with a 1.25 Rating and 1.43 K/D ratio across 13 maps played in the past three months.
Jkaem leads Apeks with 25.1% opening duel attempts across 58 maps played in the past three months.

Favorite Draftkings Plays (In order of priority):

MASONIC (World rank: #44) vs. Isurus (World rank: #62) - 10:00 A.M. ET

Moneyline Odds: MASONIC (-175) | Isurus (+145)

Map Handicap: MASONIC -1.5 (-210) | Isurus +1.5 (+170)

Map Total: Over 2.5 (+110) | Under 2.5 (-135)

This is a best-of-three online series for the semi-finals of BLAST Premier Spring Showdown 2022 North America
MASONIC - Rating at event: Queenix 1.13 | kraghen 1.11 | J3nsyy 1.10 | Cabbi 1.06 | notaN 1.01
MASONIC - Rating past three months: Queenix 1.10 | kraghen 1.10 | J3nsyy 1.08 | Cabbi 1.08 | notaN 1.07
Isurus - Rating at event: Gafolo 1.11 | deco 1.08 | Noktse 1.05 | ALLE 1.04 | DeStiNy 0.99
Isurus - Rating past three months: DeStiNy 1.07 | deco 1.03 | Gafolo 1.02 | Noktse 1.02 | ALLE 1.01

H2H Data:

These rosters have never faced each other.

Map Projections:

Isurus removes Vertigo

MASONIC removes Mirage

Isurus picks Overpass

MASONIC picks Nuke

Isurus removes Ancient

MASONIC removes Dust2

Inferno is left over

Prediction/Narrative: MASONIC wins 2-1.

MASONIC have been the higher-rated team at this event with a 1.08 Team Rating across nine maps played. They are (-175) favorites against Isurus in this spot, yet Draftkings has their players priced significantly lower than Isurus for this slate. Thus, the obvious value on Draftkings is with MASONIC. Beyond that, I do expect MASONIC to win here as their lineup has been rolling with a 42-24 W/L record across 66 maps played. Their map pool has been solid with at least a 63.6% win rate on Inferno, Overpass, Vertigo, Dust2, and Nuke. As for Isurus, they have had mixed results with a 19-16 W/L record across 35 maps played, though they just had an impressive win over SKADE on Friday at this event. The map pool does not look as promising for Isurus as they only have at least a 63.6% win rate on one map: Ancient. Even then, they’ve only played Ancient three times, and I’d probably consider MASONIC to be favorites on that map since they have played it 12 times with their lineup. I could see Isurus picking up a map here, like perhaps Overpass, which is their most played map. Ultimately, I expect MASONIC to win out here in the best-of-three format given the depth of their map pool, and I am happy to take the unexpected value on Draftkings.

On Overpass, J3nsyy leads MASONIC with a 1.25 Rating, while Queenix leads with a 1.31 K/D ratio across six maps played.
On Nuke, kraghen leads MASONIC with a 1.11 Rating, while J3nsyy leads with a 1.10 K/D ratio across 17 maps played.
On Inferno, notaN leads MASONIC with a 1.12 Rating, while J3nsyy leads with a 1.08 K/D ratio across 11 maps played.
Cabbi leads MASONIC with 22.8% opening duel attempts across 66 maps played.

Favorite Draftkings Plays (In order of priority):

*Top Stacks: Apeks, MASONIC

*Favorite Captain Plays: jkaem, nawwk, kraghen, Gafolo, iM

*Favorite Value Plays: AcilioN, J3nsyy, Cabbi, STYKO, Queenix, chawzyyy