Phoenix Suns @ Los Angeles Clippers
Over/Under: 221
Spread: PHX -1
After taking the first two games of the series, Phoenix heads on the road with the intention of not letting the Clippers come up for air. Each game has been close so far, Tuesday’s was decided by a single point, but things do change as the Suns get Chris Paul back in the lineup.
Injuries:
*Kawhi Leonard – OUT
Player Breakdown:
CPT/MVP
Paul George – The numbers continue to be there for George, but he is struggling with inefficiency as is forced to carry the load on his own with Leonard sidelined. Regardless of what came before, all we will remember from Game Two is George missing two late free throws. He couldn’t find the mark from long distance (missing seven of eight three-point attempts) which led to his poor shooting night (10 of 23) but George still put up 26 points while playing 40-plus minutes. From a DFS perspective it works in both directions that George is the only star in town for Los Angeles and I would to rebound tonight in a must win game for the Clippers as he looks to get back in 50 fantasy point territory.
Chris Paul – Paul is back and well rested as the Suns look continue their positive momentum. When we last saw Paul he scored 37 points and handed out seven assists to close out Denver as the point guard does not appear to be interested in pacing himself or taking on a supporting role this postseason. Those seven assists create a nice floor as he has hit double figures in three games already in the playoffs while showing offensive upside that just wasn’t there in the regular season.
Devin Booker – After carrying the load for Phoenix in the first two games of the series, Booker now cedes the reigns back to Paul. By no means will Booker fade into the background but it is only natural to see a decrease in usage as Paul had been taking on a larger role so far this postseason. With that being said he did take a step back offensively scoring only 20 points on Tuesday but Booker did come through when it counted for Phoenix in the fourth quarter. The offense will still be there for Booker but we can’t count on double digit assists or rebounds and we also have to account for the wide range scoring outcomes he has produced so far this postseason.
MID-TIER
Reggie Jackson – Running as the second option behind George has been going quite well for Jackson this post-season. Jackson was unable to eclipse the 20-point mark for the fourth straight game on Tuesday, but at 19 points it’s hard to come much closer. He will continue to get ample offensive opportunities and in the last four games Jackson has played between 36 and 39 minutes so, I think, we are safe to assume that heavy playing time will continue.
Deandre Ayton – There we go. I knew it was in there for Ayton, now only if he can repeat this on an ongoing basis. Ayton turned in his best performance of the postseason in Game Two with 24 points and 14 rebounds in 34 minutes of action. The floor with Ayton is generally still a double-double so I do feel comfortable hunting for a repeat, or at least something close to it, tonight.
Mikal Bridges – Tuesday really was just an off night for the Phoenix forwards as Bridges dropped down to five points after consistently hitting double digits previously. I would expect Bridges to rebound tonight, having Paul back as a facilitator could also be helpful, but there is a little value here from a salary cap perspective after the poor performance.
Jae Crowder – Despite playing 32 minutes on Tuesday, Crowder was simply a disaster from a DFS perspective. Two points, four rebounds, and three assists aren’t going to cut it, but Crowder generally does hit double figures offensively and thanks to his well-rounded approach, he still got to 14 FD points on Tuesday.
DART THROWS
Nicolas Batum – After carrying a heavy load for the Clippers this postseason, Batum was demoted to the bench on Tuesday and he was essentially a non-factor. In 15 minutes the forward scored just three points (not entirely surprising since offensive upside isn’t where he holds his value) but Batum had just two rebounds and that was the extent of his production. At this point it’s hard to expect much more from Batum as he needs playing time to hold any type of DFS value.
Cameron Payne – Payne now heads back to the bench after holding down the fort in Paul’s absence. He will still play around 15 minutes and has proven he can be a solid contributor, but role is more of the issue here.
Marcus Morris – After two games of 36 FD points against Utah, Morris has taken a step back. Part of the reason is a reduction in playing time, closer to the mid-20’s, but in his last three games Morris has combined for 20 points as he is in more of a complementary role.
Terance Mann – Instead of bouncing back on Tuesday, Mann’s performance to close out the Jazz was a distant memory as he scored eight points in 19 minutes. We know that offensive upside is there, but it doesn’t appear he will get the playing time to do so.
Cameron Johnson – Johnson’s price on FD jumps off the page at me as he has played 24 minutes in each game so far against the Clippers while averaging 11.5 points and 3.5 rebounds per game. It isn’t much, but at the price and in a showdown slate, we can’t ignore that.