We’ve had a good year overall with our MonkeyKnifeFight props, and it is nice to get one last chance to add to our success in the biggest game of them all. I would be lying if I said I was looking forward to watching Tom Brady in this game yet again, but if I’m going to watch anyway, I may as well have some fun and (hopefully) make some money. 

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Prop 1: More or Less (Pays 3.5-to-1)

Both of these totals feel a bit high, and while I don’t love betting against either of these quarterbacks, I’m going to. I feel like Tampa Bay’s defense has carried Brady for most of these playoffs, and if that happens again, I think he’ll go well under like he has each of the last two games. It took the Chiefs going up big and taking their foot off the gas for Brady to reach 345 yards back in Week 12, and while that certainly could happen again, I don’t think its the most likely scenario.

As good as Patrick Mahomes has been in these playoffs, he topped out at 325 passing yards against Buffalo. He went well, well over that total in the first game against Tampa Bay, but with two weeks to prepare, I think the Bucs defense will have a better showing, especially if the cornerbacks are allowed to hold on every play.

Prop 2: Rapid Fire (Pays 3-to-1)

Mahomes has the higher yardage total, he’ll certainly run more than Brady and with his team favored to win, he’s likely to have more touchdowns as well. That is a loot of points to give, but Mahomes is a much better player than Brady at this point, so I’m fine giving them.

Tampa Bay is susceptible to big plays deep, but I think they will try to shut down Tyreek Hill and take their medicine with Kelce in the middle of the field. Even if they do that, there’s no guarantee it works, but I’m willing to take my chances.

Prop 3: Touchdown Dance (Over 2.5 TDs Pays 2.5-to-1)

Both Hill and Kelce are heavily favored to score a touchdown, and no one would be surprised if they get three or even four all by themselves. Any of Tampa’s receivers could score, and while Mike Evans is the most tempting of those, he just makes me nervous. Like Evans, Fournette scored a touchdown in two of three playoff games, and unlike Evans, I’m not worried about other running backs vulturing touchdowns from Fournette.

Prop 4: More or Less Longshot (Pays 20-to-1)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Kansas City Chiefs

Fournette only had three carries against Kansas City in Week 12, and I have to imagine Bruce Arians has learned his lesson. We already discussed the quarterback totals above, as well as my thoughts on Kelce and Hill. The Hill prop feels like the riskiest, but I have to imagine Tampa will do a better job defending him than they did in the regular season.