In Saturday’s DFS EPL Playbook we pointed out that the EPL has been wildly unpredictable this season, and Saturday’s games did not disappoint. Chelsea and Manchester United played to a scoreless draw, doubling their total number of clean sheets from the previous five game weeks. The other two games were closer to expectations, with Liverpool and Crystal Palace winning 2-1. Sunday’s slate looks rather predictable as well, but I would expect at least one surprise.
Has there ever been a game that had 1-0 written all over it like Wolves/Newcastle? Wolves have won their last two games 1-0 while Newcastle have struggled to score over the last two seasons. Everton/Southampton is probably the toughest game to predict. Everton sit on the top of the table, but they are only +140 to win at Southampton, who are 2-1-2. Everton entered the week second in the league in goals, while Southampton have eight goals for and nine against through five games.
Leicester and Arsenal are tied with nine points this season, and we should probably expect a close game, even if the over/under is difficult to figure out. Leicester have 12 goals for and eight against this season, while Arsenal have scored eight and allowed six. My guess is that Arsenal will manage to keep the scoring down, but as we have seen, anything can happen.
As always, the lineups below are examples of lineups you can make using the players in the Playbook and are not meant for plug and play.
Goal Keepers | |||||||
Player | Team | Opp. | DK $ | DK FPPG | FD $ | FD FPPG | |
Rui Patricio | WOL | NEW | 5400 | 9.4 | 14 | 15.70 | |
Patricio leads the league in clean sheets, and I believe he has the best chance of getting another one Sunday. You'll have to pay for him, and he probably won't get many saves, but I'm not sure any keepers offer many saves Sunday. | |||||||
Karl Darlow | NEW | WOL | 4000 | 11.62 | 7 | 17.10 | |
Darlow is dealing with a knock, and I have no idea what to expect if Mark Gillespie starts instead. The other problem is that Wolves have the third-fewest shots on target this season, so if Darlow isn't getting a win or a clean sheet, which we don't really expect, there may not be many points here. That being said, cheap keepers have served us well all season, and I expect that to be the case again in this slate. | |||||||
Alex McCarthy | SOU | EVE | 4600 | 5.04 | 9 | 8.30 | |
With Richarlison already ruled out and James Rodriguez questionable, McCarthy could be facing a rather toothless Everton attack. He'd still be risky, but I think I would take the risk at the price. |
Forwards | |||||||
Player | Team | Opp. | DK $ | DK FPPG | FD $ | FD FPPG | |
Dominic Calvert-Lewin | EVE | SOU | 8700 | 22.3 | 21 | 35.94 | |
You'd have to think he can't keep up this goal streak forever, but I wouldn't necessarily bet against him. He's a GPP play, and it seems kind of insane that he's cheaper than Danny Ings and Raul Jimenez. That being said, I'm only playing him if James Rodriguez starts. | |||||||
Raul Jimenez | WOL | NEW | 10300 | 13.58 | 22 | 17.86 | |
There really aren't any safe forwards in this slate, especially if James Rodriguez is out, but Jimenez is safe-ish. He's scored in three of his five games this season, and I like his chances of scoring again. He has at least two shots, including one on goal, in every game this season, which keeps his floor reasonable. | |||||||
Danny Ings | SOU | EVE | 9000 | 14.46 | 20 | 22.58 | |
You could make a compelling argument Ings should cost more than Jimenez. The only thing working in Jimenez's favor is Everton have surrendered two fewer goals than Newcastle. |
Midfielders | |||||||
Player | Team | Opp. | DK $ | DK FPPG | FD $ | FD FPPG | |
Alex Iwobi | EVE | SOU | 3000 | 2.54 | 10 | 5.43 | |
Iwobi hasn't started yet this season but he played 65 minutes against Brighton and had 9.4 DK fantasy points. With Richarlison out Sunday, Iwobi could be a fantastic value. | |||||||
James Rodriguez | EVE | SOU | 10100 | 23.45 | 17 | 30.32 | |
If he plays, he's the safest player on the slate, and he is forward eligible as well. I'm not particularly worried about him coming off early if he's able to start, but that would be something of a concern. | |||||||
Gylfi Sigurdsson | EVE | SOU | 6000 | 4.35 | 12 | 6.32 | |
My guess is that Sigurdsson would start for Rodriguez and would replace him on set pieces and penalties. Nothing is guaranteed, and he was pretty awful last season, but we could do far worse at that price. | |||||||
James Ward-Prowse | SOU | EVE | 7100 | 9.54 | 14 | 10.24 | |
He is basically a must-play on DraftKings, and I think he's one of the safer plays on FanDuel as well. He has double-digit fantasy points on DK in three of five games this season. | |||||||
Allan Saint-Maximin | NEW | WOL | 6400 | 12.47 | 14 | 13.05 | |
Saint-Maximin has double-digit fantasy points on DK in all three starts this season. He hasn't been quite so consistent on FanDuel, but he is averaging 24.15 FD fantasy points over his last two games. | |||||||
Player | Team | Opp. | DK $ | DK FPPG | FD $ | FD FPPG | |
James Maddison | LEI | ARS | 16 | 6.50 | |||
Maddison has come off the bench in four games this season, recording a goal and an assist on two shots and two chances created. He may not play the full 90 minutes, but he's too cheap if he does. |
Defenders | |||||||
Player | Team | Opp. | DK $ | DK FPPG | FD $ | FD FPPG | |
Jamal Lewis | NEW | WOL | 3400 | 3.53 | 8 | 6.78 | |
He has nine crosses through four starts, and perhaps more importantly, he has looked the part as a left back who can get forward in the right situations. This isn't a great matchup, but beggars can't be choosers. | |||||||
Ben Godfrey | EVE | SOU | 2600 | 1.24 | 12 | 9.50 | |
Godfrey only had three crosses for Norwich last season, but just because he didn't do it with his old team doesn't mean he can't. He'll replace Seamus Coleman in the lineup, and if there's even a chance he'll replace Coleman's fantasy production at a discount, we should take it. | |||||||
Lucas Digne | EVE | SOU | 6300 | 13.31 | 15 | 20.28 | |
Digne is averaging 4.6 more DK fantasy points than anyone else on the slate, and he's the only player I really trust. He's not cheap, but I think he's worth it. | |||||||
Ryan Bertrand | SOU | EVE | 4900 | 7.3 | 13 | 11.38 | |
Bertrand is the most consistent defender for DK outside of Digne, with at least three crosses in four of his five games. | |||||||
Jannik Vestergaard | SOU | EVE | 3900 | 6.52 | 14 | 18.65 | |
He has 23 clearances through four games, and Everton figure to send a lot of balls into the box. | |||||||
Player | Team | Opp. | DK $ | DK FPPG | FD $ | FD FPPG | |
Maximilian Kilman | WOL | NEW | 3700 | 8.73 | 12 | 22.75 | |
He had five clearances in both starts this season, against Fulham and Leeds. I don't completely trust him, especially against Newcastle, but the value is too much to ignore. | |||||||
Wesley Fofana | LEI | ARS | 11 | 19.50 | |||
Banana nana Fofana had nine clearances in his only start of the season against Aston Villa. Like Kilman, Fofana looks like a fantastic value, even if I don't completely trust him. |
DK Cash | DK GPP | |||||||||||
Pos. | Player | Team | Opp | FPPG | Salary | Pos. | Player | Team | Opp | FPPG | Salary | |
F | Danny Ings | SOU | EVE | 14.46 | $9,000 | F | Danny Ings | SOU | EVE | 14.46 | $9,000 | |
F | James Rodriguez | EVE | SOU | 23.45 | $10,100 | F | James Rodriguez | EVE | SOU | 23.45 | $10,100 | |
M | Alex Iwobi | EVE | SOU | 2.54 | $3,000 | M | Alex Iwobi | EVE | SOU | 2.54 | $3,000 | |
M | James Ward-Prowse | SOU | EVE | 9.54 | $7,100 | M | Allan Saint-Maximin | NEW | WOL | 12.47 | $6,400 | |
D | Lucas Digne | EVE | SOU | 13.31 | $6,300 | D | Lucas Digne | EVE | SOU | 13.31 | $6,300 | |
D | Ben Godfrey | EVE | SOU | 1.24 | $2,600 | D | Kyle Walker-Peters | SOU | EVE | 7.83 | $4,400 | |
GK | Rui Patricio | WOL | NEW | 9.4 | $5,400 | GK | Karl Darlow | NEW | WOL | 11.62 | $4,000 | |
Util | Allan Saint-Maximin | NEW | WOL | 12.47 | $6,400 | Util | Stuart Armstrong | SOU | EVE | 7.2 | $6,800 | |
Total | $49,900 | Total | $50,000 | |||||||||
DK Pivot Cash | DK Pivot GPP | |||||||||||
Pos. | Player | Team | Opp | FPPG | Salary | Pos. | Player | Team | Opp | FPPG | Salary | |
F | F | |||||||||||
F | Raul Jimenez | WOL | NEW | 13.58 | $10,300 | F | Pedro Neto | WOL | NEW | 11.57 | $8,500 | |
M | M | |||||||||||
M | M | |||||||||||
D | D | Ryan Bertrand | SOU | EVE | 7.3 | $4,900 | ||||||
D | D | |||||||||||
GK | GK | Alex McCarthy | SOU | EVE | 5.04 | $4,600 | ||||||
Util | Gylfi Sigurdsson | EVE | SOU | 4.35 | $6,000 | Util | ||||||
Total | $16,300 | Total | $18,000 | |||||||||
FD Cash | FD GPP | |||||||||||
Pos | Player | Team | Opp | FPPG | Salary | Pos | Player | Team | Opp | FPPG | Salary | |
F/M | Alex Iwobi | EVE | SOU | 5.43 | $10 | F/M | Alex Iwobi | EVE | SOU | 5.43 | $10 | |
F/M | James Rodriguez | EVE | SOU | 30.32 | $17 | F/M | Allan Saint-Maximin | NEW | WOL | 13.05 | $14 | |
F/M | Daniel Podence | WOL | NEW | 10.20 | $16 | F/M | Dominic Calvert-Lewin | EVE | SOU | 35.94 | $21 | |
F/M | James Maddison | LEI | ARS | 6.50 | $16 | F/M | James Rodriguez | EVE | SOU | 30.32 | $17 | |
D | Jannik Vestergaard | SOU | EVE | 18.65 | $14 | D | Maximilian Kilman | WOL | NEW | 22.75 | $12 | |
D | Maximilian Kilman | WOL | NEW | 22.75 | $12 | D | Wesley Fofana | LEI | ARS | 19.50 | $11 | |
GK | Rui Patricio | WOL | NEW | 15.70 | $14 | GK | Rui Patricio | WOL | NEW | 15.70 | $14 | |
Total | $99 | Total | $99 | |||||||||
FD Pivot Cash | FD Pivot GPP | |||||||||||
Pos | Player | Team | Opp | FPPG | Salary | Pos | Player | Team | Opp | FPPG | Salary | |
F/M | F/M | |||||||||||
F/M | Gylfi Sigurdsson | EVE | SOU | 6.32 | $12 | F/M | ||||||
F/M | F/M | Raul Jimenez | WOL | NEW | 17.86 | $22 | ||||||
F/M | Raul Jimenez | WOL | NEW | 17.86 | $22 | F/M | James Maddison | LEI | ARS | 6.50 | $16 | |
D | D | |||||||||||
D | D | |||||||||||
GK | GK | |||||||||||
Total | $34 | Total | $38 |