Week 5 was the week for breakout receiving performances. We saw a couple of young receivers announce their presence with authority, and a couple of veterans finally look like themselves for the first time with their new teams. On some level, the last thing we need is to add more receivers to the list of potential starters each week. On the other hand, as injuries pile up and covid threatens to upend the season, even the deepest fantasy rosters could be in need of receiving depth. With that in mind, let's look at some of the standout target numbers from Week 5.
There’s probably no reason not to love Chase Claypool right now. Out of all of the hot waiver wire receivers so far this season, Claypool certainly has the best chance to be a league winner. I would prefer to stash him on my bench for at least a week before I rely on him, especially if Diontae Johnson is active, but I wouldn’t argue too strongly with anyone who wanted to start him right away.
I do think there are a couple of reasons not to go crazy bidding for Claypool or trading for him, however. First of all, I still think Diontae Johnson is the better player. Of course, I used to think Emmanuel Sanders was better than Antonio Brown back when they were both young late-round draft picks in Pittsburgh. I was wrong about that (though Sanders obviously was pretty good, too) and I could be wrong about Johnson. Secondly, we should note that two of Claypool’s four touchdowns came while he was matched up on a linebacker. That almost certainly won’t happen again.
I also think there is a chance Claypool’s emergence opens up more opportunities out of the slot for JuJu Smith-Schuster . I wouldn’t exactly be excited to start Smith-Schuster this week, but I’m not ready to give up on him, either.
The Eagles have been waiting for the better part of the last two seasons to get Alshon Jeffrey back, and it appears they may have found the next Alshon in Travis Fulgham. Fulgham had 13 targets in Week 5, and while it’s possible he goes away with more defensive attention or when Alshon does finally return, it is also possible Fulgham is playable all season. I would rather take a shot on Chase Claypool’s ceiling, but Fulgham could very well be the safer fantasy play.
It is too neat and tidy to draw a straight line between Bill O’Brien’s firing and Brandin Cooks ’s 12 targets and eight receptions against Jacksonville and proclaim Cooks a fantasy starter going forward. But I’m awfully tempted to. Cooks had 1000-yard seasons from three different quarterbacks in four consecutive years, including one with Jared Goff . It would be insane to think he couldn’t do it again with Deshaun Watson . I’m willing to chalk up his early-season struggles to injuries and Bill O’Brien, and now might be a good time to offer a trade if his owner isn’t willing to wait and see if Week 5 was real.
It almost certainly isn't a coincidence that the Saints’ offense stopped spinning its tires Monday when it started targeting Emmanuel Sanders . Sanders now has 18 receptions on 23 targets for 215 yards over the last two weeks. Mike Thomas should return following the Saints’ Week 6 bye, which is the only thing potentially standing in the way of Sanders being a solid WR2 going forward. There's no reason this offense cannot support both Thomas and Sanders as fantasy starters, but no one could be blamed for wanting to see it before you believe it.
There may be some confirmation bias on my part, but it certainly looks like Tyler Higbee is the number two receiving tight end in an offense that doesn't target the tight end much. Higbee's one good game this season came, like his six good games in 2019, when Gerald Everett was hurt. Everett is probably worth a shot if you need tight ends help, but four targets isn't anything to get excited about, even if he made the most of them in Week 5.
We know the Ryan Fitzpatrick will probably turn into a pumpkin this month, but it probably won’t be for at least one more week. Is it being too dismissive to say that Preston Williams and, to a slightly lesser extent, Davante Parker, are simply the wide receiver versions of Fitzpatrick? They have high upside and are fine streamers, but relying on them each week is a pretty surefire way of missing the fantasy playoffs.
The one reason not to take that view with Williams is that he is now nearly one full year removed from his ACL injury. Williams has a chance to be Alshon Jeffery , but until his four catches on five targets Sunday, he had just looked slow. I’m not reading a whole lot into Sunday’s performance, and while Williams is playable Sunday against the Jets, I also think he is droppable during Miami’s Week 7 bye, almost regardless of what Williams does in Week 6.
Maybe it’s time to stop waiting on D.J. Moore . He’s still a good player, and as such, he’ll be worthy of start consideration nearly every week, but he is averaging five targets over his last three games. While it was nice to see him catch four passes for 93 yards and a touchdown in Week 5, that’s pretty much the bare minimum we expect from a good receiver against Atlanta. I no longer consider Moore a buy-low, and even I have to admit Robbie Anderson, with double-digit targets in three of the last four games, really is the number one receiver in Carolina now.
It is going to take more than three targets for Henry Ruggs to turn into Tyreek Hill , but if you watched Ruggs against Kansas City Sunday, it is easy to see how that is Ruggs’s ceiling. He is a risky, high-upside play for now, but considering this was his first game back from a knee/hamstring injury, he could easily be much more than that before long. Vegas’s Week 6 bye is probably coming at the right time, allowing time for Ruggs to get completely healthy and for the coaches to find new ways to get him the ball.
I know just about every fantasy analyst on the planet is falling all over themselves trying to divine how Dak Prescott ’s injury affects the Cowboys’ pass-catchers, but the Occam’s Razor answer is by far the most likely one: They all suffer a little bit, but nothing really changes.
It was nice to see Andy Dalton loft two 50/50 balls for Michael Gallup in the game-winning drive, but Gallup’s ceiling is capped for fantasy so long as that is his primary role in the offense. Dalton has been willing to go downfield throughout his career, and Gallup should be fine, though clearly third among Dallas’s wide receivers. Similarly, I’m not worried about CeeDee Lamb after his eight catches on 11 targets for 124 yards, even if most of those numbers came before Prescott was carted off. Lamb is very good, even if he hasn’t quite reached Amari Cooper ’s level yet.
Dalton sustained great fantasy seasons for A.J. Green for several years, and he certainly could do the same for Cooper. Again, I’m not necessarily expecting it, but I think Cooper’s ceiling is just as high as it was a week ago, even if his probability of reaching that ceiling is lower. Cooper was due for a bad game, so if his owner in your league is worried about his two catches on four targets or Dak’s injury, now is the time to make an offer. Cooper is eighth among wide receivers in fantasy points, and I wouldn’t rank him too far below that for the rest of the season.
If there’s one Dallas pass-catcher who stands to lose the most with Dalton taking over, it is probably Dalton Schultz . That isn’t to say we have any idea how much Andy Dalton will target Schultz, only that Schultz barely had any margin for error and even a small decline in the number or quality of his targets would result in him being unplayable for fantasy. I’m not sure he would have been playable had Dak remained the quarterback.
I’m not sure I buy the narrative that says Adam Thielen ’s back-to-back big fantasy weeks are related to Justin Jefferson’s emergence as a legit NFL wide receiver, but any concerns we had about Thielen have clearly been answered. Jefferson still only has more than five targets in one game this season, so while he’s playable against Atlanta this week, he is far from a must-start.
I wasn't actually thinking about Mike Williams when I wrote the introduction, but he may be the poster child for receivers who have rejoined the weekly start/sit conversation after their performances in Week 5. Williams caught five of eight targets for 109 yards and two touchdowns in his return from a hamstring injury Monday. Williams will likely always be too touchdown-dependent to be a weekly fantasy starter, but if Justin Herbert continues to play like one of the best young quarterbacks in the league, Williams could easily reach double-digit touchdowns for the second time in his career. I tend to think it would be bad for Williams if Keenan Allen is out, but the targets going to Allen each week have to go somewhere, and at least some of them should go to Williams.
The argument against Jamison Crowder has long been that functional NFL offenses don’t target small slot receivers 10+ times per game. The argument for Crowder the last two seasons (and even for most of his time in Washington) is that he doesn’t play in a functional NFL offense. Among the players on our target leaderboard, only Allen Robinson (barely) has more than Crowder’s 11 targets per game. Robinson is probably more of a red-zone threat thanks to his size, but I think it is time we start considering Crowder in the same light as Robinson for fantasy.
Mark Andrews got in the end zone again Sunday, which is always nice, but I think his nine targets were even more encouraging than the touchdown. On the one hand, I am inclined to trade someone who is so touchdown-dependent, especially considering the offense has not been nearly as explosive as it was last season. On the other hand, not having to stream a tight end really feels like a blessing this season, and I’m not particularly eager to give that away. At the end of the day, Andrews probably is what we thought he was, but he’s down at eighth in targets among tight ends, which is a bit worrisome.