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Last week’s MKF picks were a decidedly mixed bag. Our Premier League picks were canceled because Fabinho sat the game out, and while Mohamed Salah finished under 24.5 fantasy points, Raul Jimenez’s goal put him well over 11.5 fantasy points. We’ll never know what would have happened had Fabinho played, but I’m choosing to believe we would have won.

I loved our first foray into MKF’s soccer contests, even though we split there. Justin Rose had less than 277.5 strokes, and while I thought he would contend for the win rather than miss the cut, I’ll take the victory all the same. Our lone miss was Hideki Matsuyama, who needed par or better on four more holes to get us the win. 

While we will no doubt get back to golf and soccer and basketball in the coming weeks, we turn our attention this week back to the NFL one final time. On paper, this looks like the closest Super Bowl matchup in years, as reflected by the Vegas line. I’m still not sure who I’m picking to win, though as of right now, I’m leaning towards the 49ers. The great thing is you don’t have to correctly pick the winner to win some money, so let’s get to it. 

Rapidfire 3/3

Passing Yards: Patrick Mahomes vs. Jimmy Garoppolo +72.5

We’ve seen Jimmy G keep pace with a Hall-of-Fame quarterback in a shootout once already this season, and I think Garoppolo can do it again if needed. We just need the Chiefs to do a reasonable job stopping the run, and they proved they could do that last week against Derrick Henry . Give me Jimmy Garoppolo .

Receptions: Travis Kelce vs. Tyreek Hill +0.5

Including the playoffs, Kelce, Hill and Mahomes have appeared in 12 games together this season. Kelce had more receptions than Hill in seven of those games. I hate betting against Tyreek Hill , but I think he will be double-covered for most of this game, so I’ll take Kelce.

Rushing Yards: Raheem Mostert vs. Damien Williams +36.5

Williams was held under 50 rushing yards in both playoff games, despite getting 12 carries against Houston and 17 against Tennessee. I doubt Williams will get many more opportunities than that in this game, and I think San Francisco will do a reasonably good job of bottling him up. Mostert, on the other hand, has topped 70 rushing yards just twice since Week 3, and he will almost certainly have to do that to come out on top. Give me Williams.

More or Less 3/4

Patrick Mahomes Less than 309.5 passing yards

Mahomes topped 310 passing yards just once in his last six regular season games, including games against the Patriots, Bears and Chargers. He is obviously incredible, but I just can’t pick him to go over against one of the best defenses in the league. As good as he was in the AFC Championship game, he still didn’t reach 300 passing yards. That makes me feel better about my pick.

George Kittle Less than 71.5 receiving yards

We obviously don’t expect Kittle to be held under 20 receiving yards for a third straight game, but those games still happened. Kittle topped 72 receiving yards in three straight games to end the season, but two of those games were against Atlanta and Seattle, so I’m not sure they count. Kittle could have a big game and still go under 72 receiving yards, as he did against New Orleans in Week 14, and that’s kind of what I’m expecting in this game.

Raheem Mostert Less than 86.5 rushing yards

Mostert has topped 86.5 rushing yards twice all season and just once since Week 13. Even if Tevin Coleman is out, I’m not sure Mostert is particularly likely to go over.

Travis Kelce Less than 6.5 receptions

Kelce has topped 6.5 receptions in half of the games he has played with Patrick Mahomes and Tyreek Hill this season. Of course, most of those games weren’t against defenses as good as San Francisco’s, which is why I’m going Under.

Fantasy Challenge

Travis Kelce , Emmanuel Sanders and Tyreek Hill over 59.5 fantasy points

Maybe I’m a sucker, but I think Jimmy Garoppolo is going to throw a lot in this game, and I think Emmanuel Sanders will be on the other end of a lot of those passes. Sanders hasn’t been great down the stretch, thanks at least in part to nagging injuries, but I think the week off will help him, and we shouldn’t forget it was Sanders, not Kittle or Deebo Samuel, who led the 49ers in targets, receptions and yards in the aforementioned Saints game. Kittle and Samuel are both capable of racking up fantasy points themselves, but Hill and Kelce are probably safer, and I’m on enough of a limb with Sanders as it is. 

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