Monkey Knife Fight: Thurs. Night Football Week 7
Steve Pimental breaks down his plays on Monkey Knife Fight for Thursday Night Football Week 7
Hopefully you didn’t miss me too much last week, as I was hiking in Arizona and had to skip the MonkeyKnifeFight Playbook. We’re back at it this week for an intriguing AFC West matchup. The Broncos have played better of late, especially defensively, after a poor start. The Chiefs, on the other hand, have not looked the same after a 4-0 start. The defense has played well enough to win the last two weeks, but it has surprisingly been the offense that has struggled. Sammy Watkins will miss his second straight game, though the Chiefs do have Tyreek Hill back again.
Only the Dolphins and Bengals have been a better matchup for opposing running backs this season, so Phillip Lindsay is an easy inclusion in this entry. In fact, I am tempted to including Royce Freeman along with Lindsay. Lindsay has outscored Freeman in four of their six games this season, so I’m not particularly tempted to play Freeman ahead of Lindsay.
The other player I strongly considered bringing in was Tyreek Hill , instead of either Courtland Sutton or Travis Kelce . If I was shooting for 55.5 or 62.5 fantasy points, I think I would be even more tempted to choose Hill. That being said, Hill does figure to see quite a bit of Chris Harris , and that concerns me a bit. Kelce has scored at least 9.8 fantasy points in every game this season, and I like that floor, especially since I expect Phillip Lindsay to do much of the heavy lifting for this lineup.
Courtland Sutton is averaging 16.0 fantasy points this season, and he has been far more consistent than Emmanuel Sanders . Sutton has proven he can get his fantasy points whether Sanders has one reception or 11, which is good considering Sanders is still dealing with a knee injury.
Mahomes hasn’t topped 325 passing yards in three straight games, and I’m not expecting him to turn it around at Denver on Thursday night. Flacco hasn’t had to throw a whole lot the last two weeks, but that is likely to change against the Chiefs.
Travis Kelce has four receptions in five straight games, and he has seven receptions in three games this season. Hill had five receptions in his first game back, but this should be a much tougher matchup. I think Kelce will definitely win if he gets seven receptions again, but I don’t think he necessarily needs seven receptions.
Phillip Lindsay has outrushed Royce Freeman by at least 36 yards in three straight games. They will probably have a similar number of carries, but Lindsay is clearly the better player, and 17.5 yards isn’t that many.
Patrick Mahomes Under 320 passing yards
Courtland Sutton Over 4.5 receptions
Phillip Lindsay Over 70.5 rushing yards
Tyreek Hill Under 84.5 receiving yards
Mahomes has been under 320 passing yards twice in his last three games, and the only time he went over was when he had 321 passing yards against Indianapolis in Week 5. Denver’s defense looks awfully good of late, and if Mahomes is being slowed by his ankle injury, he isn’t likely to get any healthier before the Thursday Night game.
Courtland Sutton has at least four receptions in all six games, but he has only gone over 4.5 receptions in three games. That being said, the three teams to hold Sutton to four receptions were the Bears, Chargers and Titans, and the Chiefs’ defense is clearly worse than those teams.
As we’ve mentioned above, this is a very good matchup for Lindsay. I expect him to outrun Royce Freeman by at least 18 yards, and if he does so, he will likely have at least 71 yards himself.
Hill was held to 80 receiving yards in his first game back from injury, and he is facing a tougher defense in Denver and a tougher cornerback in Chris Harris . Hill is certainly capable of going over, but I don’t expect it this week.