Philadelphia 76ers at Toronto Raptors

Toronto Raptors -6.5

Total: 223

Philadelphia 76ers

Of the four Eastern Conference teams that advanced to the second round, the 76ers looked most vulnerable. They lost game one at home and could have easily lost Game 2 if Joel Embiid had been given a Flagrant 2 (as he should have) for elbowing Jarrett Allen in the nose. That being said, Philadelphia won game 3 without Embiid and won Game 4 despite Jimmy Butler getting tossed in the third quarter.

Philly’s starting lineup is as good as anyone’s, and it will be extremely interesting how Toronto chooses to match up with them. If Marc Gasol can guard Joel Embiid one-on-one, I’m not sure I see a way for Philly to win this series. It will also be interesting to see who Kyle Lowry guards. It probably makes the most sense for Lowry to guard Tobias Harris and dare Harris to post him up with Embiid and Ben Simmons clogging the paint. Lowry is capable of chasing J.J. Redick around screens all day, but it might make him less effective on the offensive end. If Lowry guards Harris, Jimmy Butler might have a mismatch against Pascal Siakam . Siakam is big and fast, but it’s still not an ideal matchup for him. That would leave Danny Green to chase Redick and Kawhi Leonard to harass Ben Simmons .

I don’t think I’m playing Redick or Simmons until we see them have success or their prices go down. I am intrigued by a couple of bench options, most notably Boban Marjanovic . The only Raptor who can body him up is Gasol, and I doubt he’ll play very many minutes when Embiid is off the floor. If Boban plays 15 minutes against Serge Ibaka he could easily score 20+ fantasy points. Jonah Bolden and James Ennis could both play more minutes due to the Mike Scott injury, though it remains to be seen if that will translate into fantasy production.

I’m not really in a hurry to play any 76ers, though I could see a repeat of Game 1 of the previous series, where Jimmy Butler is the only players who shows up and he scores a ton of points. I think you also have to consider Joel Embiid just because he is so good, and there is a chance he gets some minutes against Serge Ibaka and completely dominates.

Toronto Raptors

Marc Gasol averaged 24.3 mpg over the last four games against Orlando, but he has a chance to play 30+ against Joel Embiid . Gasol probably isn’t going to be the focal point of the offense, but if his minutes increase, he could be a solid value. Even if he only plays 25 minutes, I don’t hate this matchup for him.

Pascal Siakam probably has the best matchup among Toronto’s starters. I assume Tobias Harris will at least start out on Siakam, and while Harris is big enough and is a solid defender, I don’t think he can match Siakam’s athleticism. The only one who can is probably Ben Simmons , but I kind of doubt Philadelphia will go to that right away.

It wasn’t too long ago that Jimmy Butler used to harass LeBron James in the playoffs, and he needs to do that to Kawhi Leonard for Philadelphia to win this series. I’m skeptical that he can, but I won’t be in a hurry to play Kawhi even though I like his price, especially on DraftKings.

The real wild card for Toronto is probably Kyle Lowry . He has a long history of underachieving in the playoffs, especially in Game 1s. As I stated above, I think Lowry could wear down if he is forced to guard J.J. Redick for most of this series. Even so, Philadelphia doesn’t really have anyone to guard point guards, and Lowry played much better in the last four games against Brooklyn after shooting 0-7 in Game 1. Like Kawhi, Lowry is someone I am okay playing but am not necessarily targeting.

Three players I will strongly consider targeting are Serge Ibaka , Fred VanVleet and Norman Powell , probably in that order. Toronto’s bench should have a big advantage against Philadelphia’s bench. Serge probably won’t do a ton against Joel Embiid but I love his matchup against anyone else. There is no one on Philly’s bench who can guard VanVleet, and Norman Powell topped 20 fantasy points in each of his last two games against Orlando. If you need cheap plays, going with Toronto’s bench seems like a smart strategy.

San Antonio Spurs at Denver Nuggets

Denver Nuggets -6.0

Total: 208.5

San Antonio Spurs

This game is the complete opposite of the first game in every way. While the other game is all question marks, we basically know what we are getting out of these teams at this point. San Antonio attacked the rim with abandon in Game 6, and that has to be the formula in Game 7. Derrick White especially is going to try to get to the rim every time he touches the ball, and if Denver’s help defense improves, he’ll try to hit open shooters. Beyond that, we can expect approximately 800 midrange shots from DeMar DeRozan and LaMarcus Aldridge . DeRozan especially couldn’t miss in Game 6, and I’m not counting on that in Game 7. I am counting on Aldridge, but only on DraftKings, where he is $1,700 cheaper than FanDuel. Derrick White , on the other hand, is $500 cheaper on FanDuel than DraftKings.

Denver Nuggets

Nikola Jokic looked completely unstoppable in Game 6, I suppose he could come back down to Earth in Game 7, but I’m not particularly worried about that considering he has at least 43.5 fantasy points in every game in this series. He needs 16 assists to become the third NBA player ever to average a triple-double in his first playoff series, and while I doubt he gets there, he certainly can. I’m going to be tempted to have Jokic in every lineup Saturday.

The rest of the Nuggets are far more enigmatic. Torey Craig is averaging 25.2 fppg in the three games since he was inserted into the starting lineup, but he had just 15.0 fantasy points in Game 5. Will Barton cheaper than Craig and he will probably bounce back after shooting 1-7 in Game 6, but I’d be lying if I said I felt great about playing him. Jamal Murray has scored anywhere between 45.5 and 11.25 fantasy points in this series, and nothing in that range would surprise me a whole lot in Game 7. He has at least 14 field goal attempts and 27.75 fantasy points in each of his last three games, and that probably continues in Game 7, but he makes me nervous too. That being said, I like Murray’s price on DraftKings.