WinView Games NBA Pre-Game Props
February 6, 2018
|
D. Russell (BKN) records more assists than N. Jokic (DEN) in Wednesday’s game. Yes 3.4x // No 2.1x
YES. Brooklyn is allowing the fourth fewest opponent’s assists per 100 possessions this season, while Denver ranks 21st in that stat. In their only meeting this season, in Denver, D’Angelo Russell had five assists in 26.1 minutes while Jokic had three in 33.1 minutes. On the season, Jokic is averaging 7.7 assists compared to 6.4 for Russell. This is close enough that I will chase the points. Jamal Murray is questionable, and if he returns, it could take an assist or two away from Jokic.
B. Beal (WAS) makes more 3 pointers than K. Middleton (MIL) in Wednesday’s game. Yes 2.2x // No 3.1x
YES. Over the last 30 days, Bradley Beal is averaging 3.2 made threes per game compared to 1.6 for Middleton. The Bucks have allowed the greatest percentage of three point attempts in the NBA, while Washington ranks 17th in that stat.
K. Walker (CHA) and L. Doncic (DAL) combine to record at least 12 assists in Wednesday’s game. Yes 2.6x // No 2.3x
YES. Together they are averaging 13.0 assists per game over the last 15 days, and I might expect Doncic to record even more assists with Dennis Smith Jr. gone. The Hornets rank 24th in the NBA in opponent’s assists per game while Dallas ranks 12th. In their only meeting this season, they combined for just nine assists, but I doubt that happens again.
D. Ayton (PHX) records more rebounds than R. Gobert (UTA) in Wednesday’s game. Yes 3x // No 2x
NO. Gobert is averaging 12.8 rebounds per game this season compared to 10.6 for Ayton. Gobert has a 19.5 percent rebounding rate compared to 17.5 percent for Ayton. The payout is tempting, but I doubt Ayton gets more rebounds.
.jpg)
J. Harden (HOU) is the leading scorer in Wednesday’s game (@SAC). Yes 1.7x // No 4.6x
YES. In the four games Chris Paul has played in 2019. James Harden has had 44, 30, 37 and 40 points. Harden was the leading scorer in three of those games (Malik Beasley topped him in the other). The Nets have not had anyone go over 30 points in seven consecutive games, and they likely need to go well over to top Harden.
K. Durant (GSW), K. Thompson (GSW), and S. Curry (GSW) each make at least two 3 pointers in Wednesday’s game (vs SAS). Yes 4x // No 1.6x
NO. It has happened six times this season including four times in 2019 but none since January 16. The Spurs rank 13th in opponent’s three-point attempts allowed, and I suspect a lot of people are going to say Yes, which makes me feel even better about saying No.
Who wins Wednesday’s game? Houston Rocets or Sacramento Kings. HOU 1.9x // SAC 3.6x.
SAC. The Sacramento money line is +135 for this game, and with that in mind, Sacramento’s payout for this prop is too good to pass up. The Rockets actually have a losing record (12-14) on the road, while the Kings are 17-10 at home this season.
MIL wins Wednesday’s game by 12 or more points (vs. WAS). Yes 2.6x // No 2.2x
Yes. The line for this game is 12, so I’ll go with the better payout.
M. Morris (DEN) and M. Beasley (DEN) both score 14 or more points in Wednesday’s game (@ BKN) Yes 3.3x // No 2.1x.
YES. I’m definitely going with No if we find out Jamal Murray is active. If Murray is inactive, I’ll say yes. This is the first game of the night, so we should know before we have to lock in our pick. Morris and Beasley have both scored at least 14 points in four consecutive games and six of their last 15. Of the last nine games Jamal Murray has played, Morris and Beasley both scored 14+ points just twice.
J. Allen (BKN) records 3 or more blocks in Wednesday’s game (vs. DEN). Yes 3.9x // No 1.6x
NO. Allen has reached three blocks just eight times in 53 games this season and just once in his last eight games, and he is now averaging just 1.5 blocks per game this season. He had five blocks in Denver this season but also played 30+ minutes, which he hasn’t done in any of his last nine games and just twice in his last 15. Denver ranks 18th in opponent’s blocks this season at 5.2 per game.
L. Markkanen (CHI) records a double double in Wednesday’s game (vs. NOP) Yes 2.8x //No 2.1x
YES. Wendell Carter has missed the Bulls’ last nine games, and Lauri Markkanen has a double-double in four of those games, including three of his last four. The Pelicans ranks 26th in opponent’s rebounds with Anthony Davis out the last eight games, but I will like Markkanen’s double-double chances better if Julius Randle sits again.
G. Antetokounmpo (MIL) makes at least one 3 pointer in Wednesday’s game (vs. WAS) Yes 4.5x // No 1.5x
YES. Giannis has made a three in 16 of his 49 games this season but five of his last eight. The payout is too good to ignore even if the odds are probably against him making a three.
D. Booker (PHX) scores 30 or more points in Wednesday’s game (@UTA) Yes 2.8x // No 2.3x
NO. Booker will not play Wednesday.
M. Bagley III (SAC) and K. Faried (HOU) combine to record 25 or more rebounds in Wednesday’s game Yes 3.3x // No 2x
NO. In his last six games, Faried is averaging 11.2 rebounds. In his last five games, Marvin Bagley III is averaging 10.0 rebounds. Twenty-five is an awfully big ask.
D. Cousins (GSW) records at least 4 assists and 4 rebounds in Wednesday’s game (vs. SAS) Yes 3.6x // No 1.8x
YES. Cousins has at least six rebounds in every game this season, so this question is really about the assists. He has at least four assists in four of his seven games this season including each of his last three. This seems like free money, especially considering the Spurs rank 21st in opponent’s assists this season.
At least 2 teams score 128 or more points during Wednesday’s games. Yes 4.1x // No 1.7x
YES. We have had at least three teams top 128 points in each of the last three days, including Sunday when there were only three games. No team has an implied point total over 122.4 today, but I’m chasing a big payout with a prop that looks likelier than I would have thought at first blush.
Any of Wednesday’s games go into OT. Yes 5x // No 1.5x
NO. NBA games go to overtime roughly six percent of the time, which isn’t near enough to justify saying Yes.
Any team scores 40 or more points in a single Quarter during Wednesday’s games. Yes 3.7x // No 1.7x.
YES. At least one team has scored 40 or more points in a single quarter in at least 10 consecutive games. It could be more; I stopped counting when I got to 10. If that’s not enough to convince you to go with Yes, I doubt anything will be.
D. Nowitzki (DAL) makes 2 or more FG’s in Wednesday’s game (vs. CHA). Yes 3.5x // No 2x
YES. Dirk has played 21 games this season and made two or more field goals in nine of them, including his first meeting with Charlotte. After a slow start, Dirk has made 2+ field goals in nine of his last 16 games. It also doesn’t hurt that he hasn’t played since Saturday.
Any of Wednesday’s games are decided by 2 or fewer points. Yes 3.6x // No 1.6x
YES. Four of the seven games have no spread just one has a spread of greater than three points. Each of the last three slates with more than five games has seen at least one game decided by two points or fewer.