I don’t usually like to lean too heavily on recent history for my DFS plays, but that is exactly what I am doing with this week’s PrizePicks. In the case of Al Horford , riding the hot streak is easier because it has coincided with increased playing time and (presumably) better health. Horford’s increased playing time is also a reason to believe Jarrett Allen ’s cold streak will continue. I don’t think I would ever make an over/under pick based solely on a players’ recent performance, but in the case of three of the four picks below, recent form is an important factor.
Every week in this article I will make four picks, and every week I will play at least one entry on PrizePicks. I feel like making four picks provides the most value for FANation, but I’m only going to play three or four picks if I feel real strongly about them. I will always list my picks in order or preference, so you know if I am playing a 2-pick entry, it is the first two picks listed. I like all four picks this week, but I don’t love any of them. That may be a good time to swing for the fences with a 4-pick entry, but I’m not feeling that adventurous, so I’m going with a 2-pick entry. Good Luck, and be sure to let us know in the subscriber chat which picks you’re making.
Steve’s Picks for January 28, 2019
Al Horford vs. Brooklyn Nets
Projected Fantasy Points: 32.5
OVER
Horford looks unstoppable after a slow start to the season, averaging 17.3 points, 9.3 rebounds, 2.0 assists and 1.8 blocks in 31.2 minutes per game over his last four games. He is averaging 10.0 points, 5.5 rebounds and 4.5 assists in 22.0 minutes per game in two games against Brooklyn this season, and if he reaches 30 minutes, I think he goes over quite comfortably. Only the Bulls have allowed more fantasy points to opposing centers than the Nets this season.
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Jeremy Lamb vs. New York Knicks
Projected Fantasy Points: 26.5
OVER
Only the Lakers have allowed more fantasy points to opposing shooting guards than the Knicks this season. Jeremy Lamb is averaging 17.5 points, 7.0 rebounds, 2.5 assists and 1.0 turnovers in two games against the Knicks this season. The Knicks have little rim protection and their only above-average perimeter defender, Frank Ntilikina , has been ruled out for this game.
Darren Collison vs. Golden State Warriors
Projected Fantasy Points: 32.3
OVER
Darren Collison has topped 32.3 fantasy points in each of his last three games. He has also topped 32.3 fantasy points in six of the last nine games Victor Oladipo has missed.
Jarrett Allen at Boston Celtics
Projected Fantasy Points: 27.4
UNDER
Since putting up a monster game against Houston two weeks ago, Jarrett Allen has struggled, averaging 5.5 points, 9.8 rebounds, 1.3 assists, 1.3 blocks and 2.0 turnovers over his last four games. His two games against the Celtics—both in January—were a mixed bag, with six points, eight rebounds and one block in the first meeting and 19 points, 12 rebounds and four blocks in the second. Only the Warriors have been blocked less often than the Celtics this season, and that is where Jarrett Allen gets most of his fantasy value. Al Horford has been getting increased minutes since the last time these two teams met, and that should hinder Allen’s fantasy production as well.