My favorite part of fantasy, regardless of the sport, is preparing for the draft. I love putting together rankings and, so long as you are willing to be flexible, I don’t think there is anything wrong about starting to collect your thoughts about next season before this one is completely finished. Obviously, Week 17 is a big week for DFS, and many of the top target-getters in Week 16 are important for Week 17 and the playoffs. That being said, this week’s Target Analysis will mostly take a look at the target leaders from Week 16 and the season as a whole within the context of their prospects for 2019.

PlayerTeamGamesTargetsRecYardsTDsDropsCatch %ADoTYards Per TargetYards Per Reception
Antonio BrownPIT15164104129715163.411.657.9112.47
Davante AdamsGB15162111138613568.511.698.5612.49
Julio JonesATL151531041539786814.2810.0614.8
JuJu Smith-SchusterPIT1515110613896570.29.259.213.1
Zach ErtzPHI1515011311488575.37.557.6510.16
Adam ThielenMIN1514511013359575.99.949.2112.14
DeAndre HopkinsHST15144103142511071.512.529.913.83
Michael ThomasNO1513912013769386.37.959.911.47
Stefon DiggsMIN14131949748171.810.267.4410.36
Travis KelceKC1513098127410775.49.459.813
Jarvis LandryCLV15128768743559.411.036.8311.5
Mike EvansTB151268014186763.516.5811.2517.73
Robert WoodsLAR151248411956267.711.879.6414.23
Keenan AllenLAC151229311326376.29.449.2812.17
Tyreek HillKC1512282137811567.215.4711.316.8
Christian McCaffreyCAR151211078546088.40.937.067.98
Odell Beckham Jr.NYG121197710526364.712.558.8413.66
Kenny GolladayDET151157010635360.912.529.2415.19
George KittleSF151147912284569.37.8310.7715.54
James WhiteNE15111837126474.82.246.418.58
T.Y. HiltonIND131107412096367.311.4810.9916.34
Saquon BarkleyNYG15107876884581.30.216.437.91
Tyler BoydCIN141037610287373.89.569.9813.53
Eric EbronIND151026269012560.810.476.7611.13
Brandin CooksLAR151027511423173.513.4611.215.23
Corey DavisTEN15102608434458.810.668.2614.05
Golden TatePHI141007076247706.767.6210.89
Julian EdelmanNE1199697815869.77.577.8911.32
Larry FitzgeraldARZ1598656985366.39.647.1210.74
Alvin KamaraNO1598817094382.71.97.238.75
Emmanuel SandersDEN1297718684473.29.748.9512.23
Adam HumphriesTB1597717505273.25.817.7310.56
Michael CrabtreeBLT15965258731154.211.186.1111.29
Jared CookOAK1594658686569.18.669.2313.35
Allen Robinson IICHI1394557544258.512.538.0213.71
Sterling ShepardNYG1593628054766.710.48.6612.98
Amari CooperDAL1491709737376.910.0110.6913.9
Ezekiel ElliottDAL1591775673484.60.196.237.36
Zay JonesBUF1590505595355.613.436.2111.18
Willie Snead IVBLT1589616261568.58.927.0310.26
Dede WestbrookJAX1589637075670.88.757.9411.22
John BrownBLT1588417085646.617.398.0517.27
Demaryius ThomasHST1587596775767.810.747.7811.47
Taylor GabrielCHI1587636272272.410.927.219.95
Calvin RidleyATL1586597899868.610.849.1713.37
Alshon JefferyPHI1285607845570.610.959.2213.07
Nelson AgholorPHI1584596962470.210.98.2911.8
Tarik CohenCHI1584697175182.13.968.5410.39
Donte MoncriefJAX1582466473456.113.567.8914.07
Mohamed SanuATL1581597484172.88.639.2312.68
Chris GodwinTB1581537285165.412.588.9913.74
  • DeAndre Hopkins is seventh in the NFL with 144 targets, ninth in the NFL with 103 receptions and he and Christian McCaffrey are the only players on our target leaderboard with nary a drop. Hopkins had five drops last season and four in 2016, so while having no drops is probably a fluke, I do think his hands are an underrated part of his game, and one reason he feels awfully safe despite finishing with 78 catches for 954 yards and four touchdowns in 2016.
  • Speaking of McCaffrey, he set a new career high with 33 touches last week, including 12 receptions on 13 targets. It was nice to see him still be productive even with Cam Newton out, as that probably would have been the only concern with McCaffrey heading into 2019. Maybe it’s time to admit smaller backs like McCaffrey can carry a heavier load in today’s NFL than we are used to seeing.
  • I still believe Kenny Golladay is on the cusp of stardom, even after he managed to catch just six of 14 targets for 58 yards last week. Golladay has an above-average quarterback, and he should benefit from having Marvin Jones and Kerryon Johnson back to keep defenses honest next season. There are a ton of safer receivers who were awfully good this season, but I still think Golladay is a borderline top-20 fantasy wide receiver heading into next season.
  • Who would you rather have for 2019, Kenny Golladay or Doug Baldwin ? It’s tough, right? Baldwin had his best game of the season in Week 16, catching seven of 12 targets for 126 yards and a touchdown. It seems unlikely very many teams made it to the championship game with Baldwin on a roster, considering he had a down season even if you don’t count the three games he missed.

If Baldwin is healthy he probably finishes next season as a top-20 fantasy receiver, but how confident can you be in any receiver on a team that currently has the fewest passing attempts in the NFL? The last time Russell Wilson completed fewer than 300 passes (2014), Doug Baldwin caught 66 of 98 targets for 825 yards and three touchdowns. In that context, Baldwin’s 2018 stats don’t look very fluky. The one bright side, again, is Baldwin’s five touchdowns through 12 games. Do you really want to count on that for 2019?

  • Robby Anderson is shaping up to be one of the most difficult players to rank for 2019. With Sam Darnold back for the last three games, Anderson is averaging 10.3 targets, 6.7 receptions and 104 receiving yards while catching a touchdown in each game. I understand completely if you want to ride his hot streak for DFS in Week 17, but I’m guessing this recent production has a lot more to do with Sam Darnold and the lack of receiving talent in New York than with Robby Anderson ’s. I’ll probably look elsewhere for mid-round upside at receiver, but I don’t think anyone would be shocked if Darnold takes a step forward next season and drags Anderson to top-25 fantasy production.
  • When it comes time to draft Evan Engram next season, please keep a few things in mind:
    • He still only has two touchdowns all season.
    • Through two NFL seasons, he has only been good when Odell Beckham Jr. has been out.
    • Just because Eli Manning will be gone doesn’t mean the Giants’ offense will necessarily be better.

Engram looks like a fine upside play late in a draft, but I don’t see how anyone could possibly be comfortable starting him Week 1.

  • I’ll be the first to admit I still don’t know what to make of the Tampa Bay pass catchers, especially Adam Humphries . Humphries caught 10 of 12 targets in Week 16 for 79 yards. We have no idea who the quarterback will be or what this offense will look like in 2019, but I think I’m looking elsewhere for upside late in drafts. Humphrieswould likely benefit if DeSean Jackson leaves in the offseason, but even then, he would be behind Mike Evans , O.J. Howard and Chris Godwin in terms of talent. Evans and Howard are studs, but I’m not sure we should expect any other receivers from this team to contribute consistently next season.
  • I don’t know that there is any team in more desperate need of a number one wide receiver next season than the Panthers. They haven’t really had one since Steve Smith, and while I like Cam Newton ’s weapons, they are all miscast as top receivers. Curtis Samuel led the way for Carolina in Week 16, catching seven of 11 targets for 47 yards. Samuel is explosive, if undersize, but if Carolina had somebody to draw a double-team, I could see Samuel or D.J. Moore making a big play every week or two in a Taylor Gabriel kind of way.
  • Is Zay Jones actually good, or is he simply the last man standing in Buffalo? Is Josh Allen a good enough passer for it to matter? I tend to lean towards yes and yes, but anyone who says they actually know the answer is lying. Jones has at least nine targets in four of his last six games, and he has a solid chance to reach 100 targets for the season. I might take the under on 100 targets in 2019, assuming Buffalo adds a competent receiver or two, but I suspect the targets he does get will be more productive.
  • Ted Ginn returned in Week 16, and Drew Brees topped 203 passing yards for the first time since Week 12. For his part, Ginn caught five of eight targets for 74 yards. Coincidence? Probably, but I’ll feel better about Brees in 2019 if Ted Ginn returns. Tre’Quan Smith obviously wasn’t ready to replace Ginn as a rookie, which isn’t to say he won’t be able to in his second NFL season.
  • I think the Jacksonville receivers are probably just a better version of the Carolina receivers. Dede Westbrook has emerged as the top dog, but I think he would do much better as a number two, much like Tyler Boyd . Of course, if Jacksonville did have a legit WR1, it could turn out like Indianapolis, where the secondary recivers are so similar, none is able to emerge behind T.Y. Hilton .
  • Robert Woods ranks 13th in targets this season with 124 targets, but it is worth noting he is averaging 9.6 targets per game since Cooper Kupp went down compared to 7.6 targets per game before Kupp’s injury. Woods has been the opposite of teammate Brandin Cooks , who was far better before Kupp went down. Both players will probably move in my offseason rankings depending on what we hear about Kupp’s recovery, but I think Cooks and Jared Goff are more dependent on Kupp than Woods is.