NFL Target Analysis: Week 15

There are always receivers who emerge late in the season who are intriguing for the next year; Kenny Golladay ’s 2017 December comes to mind. While that is certainly true this year, it feels like there a lot of receivers who have come out of nowhere to be useful in the fantasy championship, as well as next season. I would normally be the last person to suggest picking up someone so late in the season to start him, but this year appears to be different, especially if a few key receivers are forced to sit out this week.

Catch Rate Leaders

• Mike Williams got all of the touchdowns and headlines, but Tyrell Williams had 12 targets. He caught just seven for 71 yards, but I’m not sure Mike Williams is a better fantasy play moving forward. After all, we have seen Mike Williams log multi-touchdown games before only to disappear for long stretches. Mike Williams is a better bet for touchdowns, but if Keenan Allen is out in Week 16, I bet Tyrell Williams winds up with more receptions and yards.
• If you look at the bottom of our target leaderboard, you see a lot of solid wide receivers who aren’t particularly special, and you also see Alshon Jeffery . Jeffrey has played the fewest games of anyone on our leaderboard outside of Julian Edelman . Injuries will always be a concern with Jeffrey, who has played 16 games just once in the past four seasons, but his upside is undeniable. He caught all eight of his targets for 160 yards last week, and not too many players have that kind of upside.
• For all of the talk about how good Baker Mayfield looks, he still isn’t doing a particularly good job of getting the ball to his number one receiver. Jarvis Landry is 11^th in the NFL in targets but 22^nd in receptions, and he has been borderline unplayable for fantasy of late. Landry has three receptions or fewer in four of his last five games, with just one touchdown in his last seven games. Landry has a chance to be much better next season providing Baker Mayfield improves and the Browns add more pass-catching weapons to take some of the defensive attention away, but I wonder if he will be overrated anyway.
• DaeSean Hamilton continues to get a ton of targets with Emmanuel Sanders out, but he still hasn’t done a whole lot with those targets. Hamilton caught seven of his 11 targets Saturday, but he managed just 46 receiving yards. It was his second straight week with seven receptions and fewer than 50 yards. I think he is basically the new Keke Coutee , and while that gives his a high floor, he has a very low ceiling.
• Evan Engram has largely been a disappointment this season, but he did catch eight of 12 targets for 75 yards last week. It probably isn’t a coincidence Engram’s best games since Week 2 came with Odell Beckham out. Engram is playable in Week 16 if Beckham sits again, but even if the Giants have a new quarterback next season, I’m not sure Engram should be drafted as a TE1.
• Robbie Anderson caught seven of 11 targets for 96 yards and a touchdown last week. He now has 25 targets over his last three games. Anderson is someone you could legitimately add and play in the fantasy championship. He is a solid DFS play as well.
• I drafted Stefon Diggs ahead of Adam Thielen in at least one league, and while I doubt anyone will have Diggs ranked ahead of Thielen next season, I think there is a decent chance Diggs finishes with more fantasy points in 2019. Diggs is ninth in targets and 10^th in receptions this season, and he is one of three players on our leaderboard without a drop. Diggs trails Adam Thielen by more than 300 receiving yards, but Diggs actually has a higher average depth of target. Like Alshon Jeffrey, Diggs is not exactly a bastion of health, but his numbers look even more impressive when you consider he has only played 13 games.
• Kenny Golladay caught seven of eight passes last week for 146 yards, just one week after he caught two passes for five yards. While Golladay has been inconsistent this season, there is no doubt he has gotten more targets since Golden Tate was traded. Golladay has averaged 8.6 targets per game since the trade compared to 6.3 targets per game before the trade. If he had gotten 8.6 targets per game all season, he would be tied with Jarvis Landry .
• Davante Adams failed to score a touchdown in Week 15, but he did lead the way with 13 targets. Adams is an elite fantasy play so long as Aaron Rodgers is under center.
• Jordy Nelson still isn’t dead yet. He now has 26 targets over his last three games, with 22 receptions and 233 receiving yards. Touchdowns aren’t particularly likely on such a poor offense, but you could do worse if you’re desperate. At the very least, he’s probably a cash play for DFS.