NFL Target Analysis: Week 14

Now that we are in the thick of the fantasy playoffs, my goals with the Target Analysis article are twofold. While I will still look at the notable target leaders for the whole season as well as last week, I will split my analysis between identifying players who can help you the rest of the way both for season and DFS as well as looking at how those players can help us next season. It’s never too early to start thinking about how players’ fortunes may change in 2019.

Catch Rate Leaders

• Dede Westbrook and Donte Moncrief were both targeted 10 times Thursday night, with Westbrook catching seven for 88 yards and a touchdown and Moncrief catching five for 47 yards. Keelan Cole caught three of seven targets for 55 yards, but he wasn’t targeted until the two-minute drill to end the first half and he didn’t catch a pass until the first drive of the second half. I still think Westbrook is the one you want. Kessler proved he is willing to throw into tight coverage and capable of getting the ball to his receivers more often than not. That being said, that was the first time Westbrook had more than five targets since Veterans Day and the first game he had more than 55 receiving yards since Week 4.

• Amari Cooper has established himself as a must-start in the mold of Mike Evans . Both are too inconsistent to be a WR1, but their ceilings are as high as anyone's. If you own Amari Cooper , I don’t know how you could possibly get away from starting him the rest of the way.

• DaeSean Hamilton took immediate advantage of Emmanuel Sanders ’s injury, catching seven of nine targets for 47 yards and a touchdown. The yards don’t exactly jump off the page, but everything else does. This will never be a high-powered offense, but the rookie fourth-rounder has undeniable upside down the stretch. That being said, Time Patrick caught seven of 10 targets for 85 yards as well Sunday.

• Dante Pettis has ruined any chance of being a fantasy sleeper in 2019, but I’m not sure he is a fantasy starter in 2018. He has exactly seven targets in three consecutive games, averaging four receptions in that span. He has made up for it by catching a touchdown in each of those games, but I certainly wouldn’t want to count on that in the fantasy playoffs. How much difference is there really between Pettis and John Ross right now?

• Zay Jones has found his way onto our target leaderboard, though his 58.7 percent catch rate has kept him off of the fantasy radar outside of deep leagues. Jones’s catch rate is still better than Allen Robinson , Corey Davis , Michael Crabtree , Donte Moncrief and John Brown , and like Jones, all of those receivers have terrible quarterbacks. Jones will probably have more competition for targets next season, but if Josh Allen makes any sort of progress as a passer, Jones could enter the WR3 conversation. I’m certainly more interested in Jones than in Robert Foster , despite Foster’s 104 receiving yards on eight targets Sunday.

• Julian Edelman has played the fewest games of any player on our target leaderboard (along with A.J. Green ), but his most notable stat may be his four touchdowns. Edelman has never had more than seven touchdowns in any season, but he has done a better job of finding the end zone this season, even with Rob Gronkowski healthy. Edelman’s game-to-game ceiling isn’t particularly high, but you could do much worse for your WR3.

• Out of all of the possible outcomes when Josh Gordon joined the Patriots, did anyone think he would be just solid? Gordon doesn’t even make our target leaderboard, but he did have five catches on eight targets for 96 yards Sunday. He no longer looks like his old explosive self, but at just 27 years old, that could change again next season.

• Ian Thomas caught nine of 11 targets for 77 yards last week, and while it is doubtful any Panthers receiver settles into consistent targets this season, Thomas and D.J. Moore would appear to have the best chance. For as good as Thomas has been at times, Thomas still doesn’t have a touchdown this season, and that would cause me to hesitate unless I was really desperate at tight end.

• Austin Hooper is the top tight end on our target leaderboard in catch rate, ranking sixth overall. He is in a good offense with a good quarterback, but he will almost certainly be overdrafted next season. If Atlanta’s offense takes a step back or Matt Ryan gets over his fear of throwing to Julio Jones in the end zone, Hooper could easily turn back into Kyle Rudolph .

• Is it possible for a player to have 1196 yards and 12 touchdowns on 92 receptions and be under the radar? If so, that player is Davante Adams . He might be the poster child for why you can wait on wide receivers early in fantasy drafts. He is currently second in fantasy points among wide receivers in PPR scoring, but he will probably be the fifth WR off the board at best next season. Adams may not be in the same conversation with athletic freaks like Antonio Brown , Julio Jones , Michael Thomas , DeAndre Hopkins , Odell Beckham Jr. and Tyreek Hill , but he probably needs to be for fantasy.

• Can someone explain Eric Ebron to me? He is tied with Adams and Antonio Brown with 12 touchdown receptions, though he does have a rushing touchdown as well. It seems like every time I see him catch the ball he is wide open, and I can’t explain why. Frank Reich probably deserves more credit for the job he has done in Indy, even though I wish he would let Andrew Luck throw the ball down the field more often. I guarantee I won’t own Eric Ebron next season, because I’m still not convinced he is a good player, but that feels like a mistake right now.