NFL Target Analysis: Week 10

You might think most teams’ passing games would be settled more than halfway through the season, but that certainly doesn’t appear to be the case. A lot of players came out of nowhere to get a lot of targets in Week 11. I find it hard to trust most of the receivers who had a big game last week, but there is no doubt most of them offer intriguing upside going forward.

• Amari Cooper ’s targets were maddeningly inconsistent in Oakland, but only seven players have more targets than Cooper over the last two weeks. Cooper’s numbers haven’t exactly jumped off the page, but if he keeps catching 5-6 passes for 60-75 yards with a decent chance at a touchdown most weeks, I think his fantasy owners would be satisfied. I know I would be.

• Outside of Zach Ertz , Carson Wentz spread the ball around a ton, so while Golden Tate should see more targets once he is more comfortable in this offense, I still think his floor is much lower than it was in Detroit. His ceiling is probably still higher as well, but I didn’t see anything in Sunday’s tape that would make me want to play Tate in Week 11.

• Austin Hooper finished second among tight ends with 11 targets Sunday. He caught 10 for 56 yards and a touchdown. In his last five games, Hooper has had 10, three, three, nine and nine receptions. Hooper is a solid tight end with some touchdown upside, but I don’t think his ceiling is significantly higher than what he has shown to this point.

• Brandin Cooks had a season-high 12 targets Sunday, his first game with double-digit targets this season. He certainly could see more targets with Cooper Kupp done for the season, but he had his fewest targets of the season with Kupp out in Week 6, so we probably shouldn’t value Cooks much differently than we did at this time last week.

• Josh Reynolds probably does benefit from Kupp being out, but he had just six targets in the two games Kupp missed last month. He is nothing more than a bench stash until he sees more than five targets in a game.

• Anthony Miller now has at least six targets in each of his last four games, but he still hasn’t topped seven targets on the season. Both of his big plays on Sunday were the result of blown coverages, and in watching his six targets on tape, I didn’t see anything to make me think Miller should be started outside of deep leagues. That being said, he probably needs to be ranked ahead of Taylor Gabriel at this point just based on the consistent target share.

• Eric Ebron —In Week 10, Eric Ebron touched the ball four times on three targets and a handoff, and he finished with three touchdowns. His 53-yard touchdown was the result of poor coverage and even worse tackling. The rushing touchdown came on a well-designed misdirection play. Ebron was even more wide open on the third touchdown than on the first. He could certainly continue to frustrate Lions’ fans and Jack Doyle ’s fantasy owners for the rest of the season, but he could just as easily turn into a pumpkin. All three of those touchdowns could have just as easily gone to Jack Doyle .

• Josh Gordon —Gordon had four consecutive targets on New England’s opening drive, and he finished with four catches on 10 targets for 81 yards and zero touchdowns. Gordon is tied for seventh  in the NFL in targets since Week 6, though he has just one touchdown and is also tied for the lead in drops over that span. I wish Gordon’s catch rate was higher, but his floor is pretty high thanks to all of the targets, and I still don’t think he has come close to approaching his ceiling with the Patriots.

• Corey Davis —When I write about Corey Davis and Tennessee’s offense in general, I feel like Vizzini from The Princess Bride, raising point after counter-point and talking myself in circles.  In the end, I think I’m settling on cautious optimism, which has been my view more often than not this season. That being said, let’s lay out the good and bad, starting with what we saw in Week 10.

Tennessee’s offense looked light years better than it has in any game since Week 4, and Corey Davis was at the center of that, with seven catches on 10 targets for 125 yards and a touchdown. Davis  had a 15.9 average depth of target in this game, the highest in Week 10 for any receiver with more than six targets. I’m not sure if I agree with the broadcast crew from Sunday in saying Marcus Mariota finally looked healthy, but he certainly looked more willing to throw the ball down the field.

That being said, Tennessee’s offense looked at least this good in Week 4 against Philadelphia, and since then they have looked so bad as to make fantasy players long for the days of Mike Mullarkey.  And New England also made Blake Bortles look unbeatable this season, so skepticism is probably warranted. Unless you want to swing for the fences or your options are limited by byes, I would recommend leaving Davis on the bench for at least one more week.

• Zay Jones —Jones had 11 targets in Week 10, catching eight for 93 yards and a touchdown.  I won’t argue too vociferously with anyone who added Jones this week, but I can’t say he looked particularly great on film. He was targeted downfield multiple times in the first quarter even though he wasn’t really open. The one time he did get open down the field, Matt Barkley underthrew him. That being said, Barkely seems to look Jones’s way an awful lot, and Jones has a chance to keep this up at least while Barkley remains the starter.