Golden State Warriors at Utah Jazz

Golden State Warriors -2.5

Over/Under 218

  • The Jazz won the regular season series 3-1 last season, averaging 213.5 points in those contests. Utah held Golden state under 100 points in three of those games, including both at Vivint Smart Home Arena. The Warriors were held under 100 points just 11 times all season.

  • It is worth noting the Jazz faced Stephen Curry just once last season. Klay Thompson , Kevin Durant and Draymond Green each played Utah three times. Even so, Klay Thompson was the only member of the Death Lineup to average more than 21.7 ppg against Utah. Kevin Durant averaged 17.0 points against the Jazz while Steph Curry had 14 points, two rebounds, five assists and three turnovers in his lone game against Utah.

  • The Jazz needed some late heroics from Donovan Mitchell to defeat the Kings 123-117 Wednesday night. Mitchel scored 11 of his 24 points in the fourth quarter, but shot just 38 percent from the field including 3-10 on threes.

  • Ricky Rubio struggled Wednesday, going 0-4 from the field in just 22 minutes.

  • Rubio was outplayed by backup Dante Exum , who had 13 points, four rebounds and four assists in 26 minutes off the bench.

  • Derrick Favors was great against Sacramento Wednesday, but he doesn’t match up nearly so well against the Warriors. Favors averaged fewer than 25 minutes per game against Golden State last season, and I would expect similar playing time in this game.

  • By now we know exactly what the Warriors are with one notable exception: the center position. While Kevon Looney grabbed headlines for his double-double on opening night, Damian Jones got the start and scored 12 points (6-7 FG) with three rebounds, two assists and three blocks in 27 minutes against the Thunder and Steven Adams . I suspect Jones will play heavy minutes again Friday, as neither Looney nor Jordan Bell have the size to matchup with Rudy Gobert .

 

1. The last made shot (FG or FT) of the 1st Quarter is a 2 pointer (we'll leave this open until the 1:00 mark). (1.6x yes/4.2x no)

NO. Two-pointers accounted for just 53 percent of Golden State’s made shots (including free throws) last season, compared to 50.6 percent for Utah. I have no idea why anyone would pick Yes.

2. K. Thompson (GSW) makes 1 or more 3 pointers in the 1st Quarter (1.8x yes/3.9x no)

NO. Thompson averaged just 1.7 made threes last season. Even if you use his career average of 2.9, you still get fewer than one made three per quarter. I know it seems like Thompson hits a three every couple of minutes, especially when you bet against him, but the odds are ever in your favor if you go with No.

3. R. Gobert (UTA) records 3 or more rebounds and scores 4 or more points in the 1st Quarter (2.0x yes/3.2x no)

NO. It may seem like it, but it's not a fait accompli that Gobert reaches one of these thresholds, much less both of them.

4. Either team has 5 or more points at the 10:45 mark (4x yes/1.5x no)

YES. With the way NBA teams jack up three-pointers, one or both of these teams could easily score five points in just a couple of trips down the floor. Also, if either team turns the ball over, it could result in quick points the other way. If Golden State wasn’t involved, I would probably say No.

5. UTA wins the opening tip-off (2.1x yes/3.4x no)

NO. I think this will probably be my One Shot. Rudy Gobert only won 50.9 percent of opening tips last season. Damian Jones is 7’0” tall, so he at least should have a chance against Gobert. Even if you think Gobert is the favorite to win the tip, the payout for No is too good to ignore. Jones won the opening tip against Steven Adams Tuesday night, which makes me feel even better about this pick.

6. Both teams make their first shot attempt of the 1st Quarter (4.0x yes/1.5x no)

NO. The Warriors shot 50.3 percent from the field last season, while the Jazz shot 46.2 percent. Golden State held their opponents to 44.7 percent shooting compared to 44.9 percent for Utah. I would put Yes at roughly a 20 percent chance, and I don’t think the payout is great enough in this case.