New Orleans Pelicans at Houston Rockets

Houston Rockets -7.5

Over/Under 228.5

  • The biggest question mark for the Pelicans this season is if Elfrid Payton can replace Rajon Rondo. Stylistically, Payton is a reasonable facsimile of Rondo, as both are pass-first point guards who can put up a triple-double any given night but are pretty terrible shooting from the perimeter or the free throw line. That being said, Rondo was a surprisingly good fit in New Orleans last season, and if there is any drop off from Rondo to Payton, the Pelicans’ offensive efficiency will likely suffer.
  • Houston shot 64.6 percent at the rim last season, good for eighth in the NBA, but it will be interesting to see how they fare against Anthony Davis in this game. Davis allowed the fifth lowest field goal percentage (54.1 percent) on shots at the rim last season.
  • The Rockets were seventh in defensive efficiency at 105.6 last season. We can probably expect at least a modest dip after Luc Mbah a Moute and Trevor Ariza left via free agency.
  • If the Rockets are going to be as good as last season, they probably need Carmelo Anthony to fit in better than he did with the Thunder last season. The stars on this team are better off the ball than Russell Westbrook, so that should help at least a little bit.
  • The Pelicans led the league in pace in the preseason, and while I would be inclined to write that off as an aberration, they led the league in pace last season as well. It helps that New Orleans’ bigs are all capable of grabbing the ball off the rim and taking off the other way.
  • After the All-Star break last season, the Pelicans had a 111.0 offensive rating with Anthony Davis on the court and a 98.5 offensive rating when he sat. The addition of Julius Randle should help, and I would expect Randle and Nikola Mirotic to both be on the court for most of the meaningful minutes Davis spends on the bench. Randle had a career-high 104.6 offensive rating last season, and he should be effective both playing alongside Davis and anchoring bench units.
  • James Harden led the NBA in usage last season per CleaningtheGlass.com, at 40.4 percent. He assisted on 44.9 percent of his teammates’ made shots. Chris Paul had a 29.6 percent usage and assists on 38.9 percent of teammates’ made shots.
  • Anthony Davis had a 26.6 percent usage rate last season. Julius Randle wasn’t far behind, at 25.0 percent.
  • No team took more threes than the Rockets last season, as 46.7 percent of their shots came behind the arc. Both the Pelicans and Rockets were in the middle of the pack in threes allowed, at 31.2 and 31.5 percent, respectively.
  • The Rockets allowed the fifth highest percentage of shots at the rim last season, at 36.0 percent. Julius Randle took 69 percent of his shots at the rim.

 

1. The last made shot (FG or FT) of the 1st Quarter is a 3 pointer (we'll leave this open until the 1:00 mark). (3.7x yes/1.8x no) NO. Three's made up 26.3 percent of the Rockets’ made shots last season, and 17.4 percent of the Pelicans’ made shots. That’s not quite enough to make me say Yes, though it is close enough that if you need to chase points late, I don’t hate it.

2. The first made shot of the 1st Quarter is a 2 pointer (1.7x yes/4.2x no)
NO. Two pointers made up 40.1 percent of the Rockets’ makes last season, and 55.2 percent of New Orleans’ makes. Those numbers are not nearly high enough to justify saying Yes, even if I think Houston takes a slightly higher percentage of twos with Mbah a Moute and Ariza gone.


3. J. Harden (HOU) records 4 or more free throw attempts in the 1st Quarter (2.6x yes/2.2x no)

NO. Harden averaged 10.1 free throw attempts per game last season, there there is no reason to believe he will average significantly more than that this season. Four free throw attempts in one quarter is high, even for Harden.


4. A. Davis (NOP) has the most points at the end of the 1st Quarter (4x yes/1.5x no)
NO. Davis has an awful lot of competition, though it does help that Chris Paul usually gets an early hook in the first quarter. Even so, Paul, James Harden, Clint Capela, Eric Gordon, Nikola Mirotic and Jrue Holliday are all capable of outscoring Davis in the first quarter.


5. Either team commits a turnover by the 10:15 mark (3.4x yes/2.1x no)

NO. The Pelicans averaged 14.9 turnovers per game last season, compared to 13.8 for the Rockets. Pelicans’ opponents averaged 14.5 turnovers per game compared to 14.5 for the Rockets. I expect all of those numbers to increase slightly due to the roster changes for both teams, but not enough to make Yes profitable.


6. HOU wins the opening tipoff (2.6x yes/2.3x no).

NO. Anthony Davis won 57.8 percent of opening tips last season, compared to 41.1 percent for Clint Capela. I need a better payout to consider saying Yes.