Houston Astros @ Boston Red Sox

Boston Red Sox -114

Games Total: 7.5

 

Game Play Predictions

Boston Red Sox

  • Chris Sale is 1-2 with a 6.19 ERA in the postseason in his career.
  • Sale was a big question mark heading into the postseason after throwing just 17 innings since July 27. He got the win in Game 1 against the Yankees, allowing two runs on five hits with eight strikeouts in 5.1 innings. Sale also pitched a perfect eighth inning in Game 4.
  • Chris Sale is 1-3 with a 3.97 ERA, 1.26 WHIP and .261 batting average against in seven head-to-head starts against Justin Verlander.
  • If Houston is going to get to Chris Sale, it may have to be the top of the order that does the damage. George Springer is 5-for-14 with a home run against Sale while Jose Altuve is 8-for-24.
  • The rest of the order hasn’t fared nearly as well, with Jake Marisnick, Marwin Gonzalez, Evan Gattis, Josh Reddick and Carlos Correa going a combined 10-for-59 (.169) against Sale.
  • The Astros had the third-highest wOBA and third lowest strikeout rate on the road this season at .334 and 19.7 percent, respectively.
  • Houston led all of baseball with an .803 OPS against lefties this season. Houston’s 20.1 percent strikeout rate against lefties ranked third, behind only Cleveland and Detroit.
  • Alex Bregman, Marwin Gonzalez, George Springer and Josh Reddick lead the American League in batting average in these playoffs at .556, .538, .429 and .400, respectively.
  • George Springer is tied with Aaron Judge and Manny Machado with three home runs in these playoffs.

Houston Astros

  • Justin Verlander led the American league with a career-high 290 strikeouts this season.
  • Verlander won two games against Boston in the 2017 ALDS; Chris Sale took the loss in both games.
  • Verlander is 12-6 with a 3.08 ERA in his postseason career.
  • Verlander is 3-0 with a 2.06 ERA, 0.98 WHIP and .207 batting average against in seven head-to-head matchups with Chris Sale.
  • Justin Verlander is 3-3 with a 3.51 ERA in 10 career starts at Fenway Park.
  • Even if the Red Sox are able to knock Justin Verlander out of the game early, they could still find runs hard to come by. Houston’s relievers had the lowest ERA in baseball this season at 3.03.
  • A trio of Red Sox have had modest success against Justin Verlander, with Eduardo Nunez going 6-for-18, Mitch Moreland 10-for-32 and Brock Holt 3-for-10 against Verlander.
  • The most intriguing matchup in this game is probably Verlander against Mookie Betts. Betts is 0-for-13 in his career against Verlander.
  • The rest of Boston’s lineup has bene only marginally better. Andrew Benintendi and Jackie Bradley Jr. are both 1-for-9 against Verlander. Ian Kinsler is 6-for-38, Sandy Leon is 2-for-9 and Xander Bogaerts is 4-for-17 against Verlander.
  • The Red Sox had a .829 OPS at home during the regular season, second only to the Rockies. Boston’s 19.3 percent strikeout rate at home ranked third this season.
  • Boston had the highest OPS in baseball against righties this season, at .817. Their 19.0 percent strikeout rate against righties trailed only Cleveland.
  • J.D. Martinez has six RBI in these playoffs, tops in the American League. Brock Holt is tied for second with five.

 

Pre-Game Predictions

1. Both teams record a strikeout in the 1st Inning (1.9x yes/ 3.6x no).

NO. As you can see above, neither of these teams strike out a whole lot. At the same time, Chris Sale and Justin Verlander ranked first and second in strikeout rate among pitchers who threw at least 150 innings this season, at 38.4 and 34.8 percent, respectively. Both of these pitchers are probably good for at least a strikeout an nning, but that doesn’t mean they will record at least one strikeout every inning. I suspect the vast majority of players to pick Yes, which makes my No call a bit more palatable.

 

2. Either team scores in the 1st Inning (4.9x yes/ 1.5x no)

NO. You have two great offenses going against two great pitchers, and I tend to think the pitchers will win out. Most of the numbers above seem to indicate that would be the case. I think if anyone gives up a run it will probably be Chris Sale, but his two appearances against in the ALDS quieted a lot of the concerns I had.


3. A HOU batter reaches a full count in the 1st Inning (3.3x yes/ 2.1x no)

NO. For as good as the Astros have been against lefties this season, their walk rate was just 8.9 percent, good for 12th. No is still getting a reasonably good payoff here, and I expect Chris Sale to make relatively quick work of the Astros in the first inning.


4. LEADOFF BATTER* (HOU) swings at the first pitch or sees at least 6 pitches (3.7x yes/ 1.7x no)

YES. George Springer will almost certainly lead off in this game, and he has swung at 44.4 percent of the pitches he has seen and 66.5 percent of the strikes he has seen this season. That alone is worth saying Yes. Chris Sale has a 67.6 percent first-pitch strike rate. Opponents have swung at 48 percent of his pitches and 62.8 percent of his strikes this season.