NFL Target Analysis: Week 2

There was not much change at the top of the target leaderboard from weeks one to two. Alvin Kamara and Corey Davis dropped out of the top 10, but stayed inside the top 25. The biggest surprise was JuJu Smith Schuster, who had 18 targets in Week 2 after just seven in Week 1. We probably won’t have two Steelers in the top five for much longer, but at the very least, Smith-Schuster should be pretty safe week to week. Let’s take a look at the aforementioned target leaderboard, as well as some of the top target-getters from Week 2.

Breakdowns

• Allen Robinson shot up the target leaderboard with 14 targets in Week 2 after he had just seven targets in Week 1. He led the Bears in targets both weeks, but it was nice to see him get a much heavier target share in Week 2. He has established himself as an every-week starter, but I’m not sure I see WR1 potential unless Mitch Trubisky and this offense take a big step forward.
• For the second consecutive week, Jordan Howard had more receptions than Tarik Cohen . Cohen should still benefit when the Bears have a negative game script, but I don’t know when you will ever feel comfortable starting him. Cohen is droppable, which is not to say I would want to drop him, while Howard’s newfound target share helps him retain some of the value he lost in recent seasons in PPR formats.
• John Brown ’s Week 2 film is exactly what we talk about when we say all film is not created equal. Of his 10 targets in Week 2, four were uncatchable, and Brown failed to hang onto three others, including an inexcusable drop in the end zone. Brown is a good player, so big plays and touchdowns should be relatively frequent, but I would look to trade him for someone who will be more reliable week to week.
• I want to see it for at least one more week before I will trust it, but it was nice to see Amari Cooper get 10 targets (and catch them all) in Week 2. If there is any concern from watching the tape, it is that Cooper was wide open on the vast majority of his targets. It’s nice to see him get open against a good defense, but if Cooper’s going to be a consistent fantasy play, Derek Carr is going to have to throw the ball even when there are defenders in the area.
• As for his teammate, Jordy Nelson , I’m giving him one more week before I consider cutting him. It his disappointing to see him with just eight targets through two weeks, but Oakland has faced two very good defenses in the Rams and Broncos. If Nelson doesn’t produce more in Week 3, or at least see more targets, then it will probably be time to give up on him.
• I told anyone who would listen not to start Will Fuller in Week 2, and I was wrong. I’ve been thinking of Fuller as a DeSean Jackson type who would have a few huge games but also a bunch of duds, but he may be a bit safer than that after he finished second on his team with nine targets in his first game of the season. Fuller isn’t exactly a technician when it comes to running routes, but with his speed, playing opposite DeAndre Hopkins , he doesn’t have to be. He got some short, easy receptions with the cornerback playing off him, and he was wide open a couple of times due to play action.
• Demaryius Thomas is one of two players with 15+ touches and fewer than 90 yards. The other is Theo Riddick . Thomas is tied with Laquon Treadwell with four drops through two weeks, and while you could argue a couple of those drops were the result of poorly thrown balls, Thomas deserves a fair share of the blame as well. Better days lie ahead for Thomas, but I’m not sure his fantasy value will ever be commensurate with his talent or target share.
• Donte Moncrief was the only Jaguar to make the target leaderboard through two weeks, but his production is pitiful compared to his teammates Keelan Cole and Dede Westbrook . Cole and Westbrook both have 11 targets this season; Westbrook has nine receptions for 134 yards and a touchdown while Cole has 10 receptions for 170 yards and a touchdown. Moncrief is tied with tight end Austin-Seferian Jenkins with 48 receiving yards and one touchdown.
• Moncrief’s touchdown came on a fade on first and goal from the four, and if he continues to be used that way in the red zone, he will probably continue to be ownable. DJ Chark was targeted on a fade in the end zone as well, and even though Cole and Westbrook both scored in this game, I am a bit concerned about their touchdown potential going forward.
• Week 2 will probably wind up being Blake Bortles ’s best game of the season, and while all three Jacksonville recievers produced against the Patriots, I don’t think you will ever get consistent production from any of them barring injury.  You probably have to just hold them if you own them, but I would probably try to sell high on Keelan Cole if someone in your league thinks he is an every week starter.
• Saquon Barkley ’s fantasy day was saved by 16 targets Sunday, though all those targets only amounted to 14 receptions for 80 yards. Barkley’s usage in the passing game gives him an awfully high floor, but that’s also what we would have said about David Johnson two weeks ago.
• The Jets trailed for the entire game in Week 2, so I’m a bit skeptical of the numbers Quincy Enunwa and Terrelle Pryor put up in that game. That being said, Enunwa is tied for 14^th with 20 targets this season. If he keeps getting 10 targets per game, it won’t matter that he and his quarterback are just average. Enunwa should be 100 percent owned, even if his ceiling is as a low end WR2. Pryor is a high-upside add in deep leagues, but even if he keeps getting eight targets per game, I don’t expect a particularly high catch rate.