Los Angeles Rams @ Oakland Raiders

Los Angeles Rams -6.0

Games Total: 41.5

  • This is our first chance to learn what the Oakland offense will look like under Jon Gruden. Gruden never met a quarterback he didn’t like, but it remains to be seen if he is going to try to air it out, or even run a modern NFL offense.

  • Derek Carr has largely been an afterthought for fantasy after struggling in 2017, but he was considered one of the best young quarterbacks in the game at this time last year. Carr especially struggled to deal with pressure last season, and the Rams should be able to get after the quarterback with Aaron Donald and Ndamukong Suh anchoring the line.

  • At 33 years old, is Jordy Nelson washed up? I’m not sure anyone was asking that question last season before Aaron Rodgers got hurt, but they are certainly asking it now. Even if the answer is mostly yes, isn’t he still at least as good as Michael Crabtree ? Crabtree caught at least eight touchdowns in each of his three seasons in Oakland, and Nelson figures to be a popular end zone target at the very least.

  • Is Amari Cooper good? He caught a career-high seven touchdowns last season, but set career-lows with 48 receptions, 96 targets and 680 yards. He probably has to win consistently against elite cornerbacks for Oakland’s offense to have sustained success in this game.

  • Oakland will almost certainly split touches between Marshawn Lynch and Doug Martin , and it is an open question if they or the offensive line are good enough to matter for fantasy. We may not get an answer in this game if the Rams’ defense is as good as we expect, but we should at least get a clue as to how they will be used.

  • I’m not sure we should expect the Rams’ defense to be great right away. They have a ton of talent, and a defensive coordinator with a well-earned reputation, but with so many changes from 2017, it may take a little time for this unit to gel.

  • The Rams offense, on the other hand, is mostly a known commodity. Perhaps the biggest question is: How good is Brandin Cooks when he doesn’t have a Hall-of-Fame caliber quarterback throwing him the ball?

  • There is a certain segment of the fantasy community who acts like Jared Goff is a future Hall-of-Famer, but he wasn’t used that way last season. He didn’t perform that way either, especially on deep throws. You have to think Oakland’s defense is going to try to dare Goff to throw the ball downfield, but there is no reason to be confident they can actually do so.

Pre-Game Props

1.  The last non-kneeling, offensive play of the 1st Quarter is a running play (we'll leave this open until the 2:00 mark)  Yes (2.5x) No (2.5x)

NO. It’s kind of crazy that the payouts for these are the same. The only NFL teams who didn’t throw the ball more than they ran last season were Jacksonville and Buffalo. The Rams were ninth in the NFL with 454 rushing attempts last season, and they ranked 24th with 518 passing attempts. Nobody knows what Jon Gruden’s offense is going to look like, but Oakland will almost certainly throw more than it runs. No is the easy choice.

2. D. Carr completes more passes than J. Goff in the 1st Quarter Yes (2.5x) No (2.5x)

NO. Again, we know precious little about what Oakland’s  offense will look like, but it is fair to expect the Rams to be largely the same. The Rams were 22nd in completed passes last season, while Oakland, for whatever it’s worth, had 27 more completions to finish  14th. I suspect Oakland will throw more than the Rams this season, but I am less confident the Raiders will be successful against the Rams defense. Oakland’s defense didn’t look like a juggernaut even before the Kahlil Mack trade, and Goff should pad his completion total with a lot of short, safe throws.

3. M. Lynch gains more rushing yards than T. Gurley in the 1st Quarter Yes (4x) No (1.8x)

NO. If we knew for sure that Marshawn Lynch would get a heavy workload, I would probably say Yes. Then again, if Lynch’s workload was assured, the payouts would likely look different. Gurley is the better player, facing a much worse defense, so I feel good about this pick even if Lynch gets a ton of carries.

4. LAR scores a TD on their opening drive (4.5x) No (1.6x)

YES. The Rams led the league in points per game last season, and while they may be due for some regression, they almost certainly improved by replacing Sammy Watkins with Brandin Cooks . This is the biggest payout of the pre-game props and it feels like it has a much better chance of happening than Marshawn Lynch outrushing Todd Gurley . My only hesitation is that I expect a lot of people to go with Yes as well.

5. OAK gains 2 or more 1st Downs on their opening drive Yes (3x) No (2x)

NO. In case you couldn’t tell, I am a lot more confident in the Rams’ defense than the Raiders’ offense. The Rams have a lot of ways to disrupt an offense, and I don’t have much faith in Oakland if they get into second or third-and-long.

6. The first offensive play of the 1st Quarter gains 4 or more yards Yes (3x) No (2x)

YES. I think I might pick Yes even if the payouts were even. I will feel better about this call if the Rams get the ball first, but I think both teams are going to start their first drive with safe, short throws, and I like their chances of picking up at least four yards.