Houston Astros @ Los Angeles Angels

Houston Astros -174

Games Total: 8

Game Play Predictions

Houston Astros

  • In his only start against Houston, Jaime Barria allowed one earned run on four hits with seven strikeouts and zero walks in 7.0 innings.
  • Barria has allowed two earned runs in 15.2 innings with 17 strikeouts and three walks over his last three games.
  • As good as Barria has been at times, he has probably gotten a bit lucky. He has an 83.8 LOB% and .281 BABIP.
  • Barria has a 40.3 percent groundball rate in the major leagues this season, but his groundball rate was below 30 percent at both Double-A and Triple-A.
  • Barria has an 18.8 percent strikeout rate and 6.7 percent walk rate.
  • Barria could struggle to get strikeouts in this game, as the Astros have the fifth lowest strikeout rate against right-handed pitchers this season at 20.1 percent.
  • The Astros rank eighth with a 9.2 percent walk rate against righties.
  • Marwin Gonzalez leads the Astros with 19 total bases over the last seven days. He is 8-for-22 with three home runs over his current five-game hitting streak.
  • George Springer has not played since August 20 due to quad tightness, and his presence would make a big difference at the top of the lineup, especially for those first-inning props.
  • Jose Altuve went hitless in his first game off the disabled list Tuesday, but he went 2-for-5 in each of his next two games with a home run and a stolen base.
  • Martin Maldonado is 8-for-19 with three home runs over his last five games.
  • Maldonado has a chance at more frequent playing time with Brian McCann out and Evan Gattis struggling. Gattis is 1-for-12 over the last seven days.
  • Alex Bregman is 19th among qualified batters with a 12.9 percent walk rate and 14th in wOBA at .385. Bregman has five more walks than strikeouts this season.
  • Bregman has the 12th lowest strikeout rate in baseball this season at 12.0 percent, but he doesn’t even have the lowest strikeout rate on his own team. That honor goes to Yulieski Gurriel at 10.8 percent. Jose Altuve is not far behind at 12.4 percent.


Los Angeles Angels

  • Justin Verlander’s 33.5 percent strikeout rate is fourth in MLB, and his 4.4 percent walk rate is also fourth among qualified starters. Verlander ranks first with a 7.69 K/BB.
  • When opponents do actually make contact against Verlander, they rarely hit it hard. Verlander’s 29.2 percent hard contact percentage is the eighth lowest among qualified pitchers.
  • Only Jake Odorizzi has a lower groundball rate than Verlander’s 29.6 percent. Verlander’s 52.5 percent flyball rate is 4.9 percentage points higher than any other qualified pitcher.
  • Justin Verlander has won all five of his starts against the Angels since he was traded to the Astros Sept. 1, allowing two earned runs in 36 innings.
  • Verlander’s last win against the Angels came July 21, when he threw six shutout innings and allowed just five hits.
  • It is remarkable Verlander’s numbers are as good as they are considering he has allowed 26 home runs this season. Only Dylan Bundy and Bartolo Colon have allowed more.
  • In fact, Verlander has a chance to join Colon as the only qualified pitchers who have allowed more home runs than walks this season. Verlander has allowed 29 walks, tied for seventh fewest in baseball.
  • The Angels have a 20.6 percent strikeout rate against right-handed pitchers this season, good for 22nd in baseball.
  • They rank 15th with an 8.6 percent walk rate against righties.
  • They have an excellent chance to add to Justin Verlander’s home run total, as the Angels have the fifth highest slugging percentage against righties this season.
  • The Angels got Mike Trout back Friday night after he missed 20 games with a sore right wrist and the sudden death of his brother-in-law. He went 2-for-3 with a triple.
  • Despite the missed time, Trout still leads all qualified hitters with a .447 wOBA and a 20.6 percent walk rate.
  • David Fletcher went 0-for-3 Friday, ending an eight-game hitting streak. He is still batting .400 over the last 15 days.
  • Albert Pujols is 10-for-33 with five walks and five strikeouts against Justin Verlander.
  • Kole Calhoun is 3-for-31 with 17 strikeouts and one walk against Justin Verlander.
  • Shohei Ohtani is 1-for-7 with three strikeouts against Justin Verlander.
  • Andrelton Simmons is 3-for-20 with one strikeout against Verlander.
  • Simmons has the lowest strikeout rate in baseball among qualified batters at 6.0 percent. Albert Pujols ranks 21st at 13.5 percent.
  • Rene Rivera is 0-for-8 with four strikeouts in his career against Justin Verlander. Rivera is 3-for-13 over the last seven days.