Los Angeles Angels @ Cleveland Indians

Cleveland Indians -250

Games Total: 8.5

 

Game Play Predictions

Los Angeles Angels

  • Corey Kluber has thrown 112.1 more innings than Felix Pena – his opponent on the mound Saturday - this season, but Kluber has issued just five more walks. That tells you everything you need to know about this matchup.
  • In his only start against the Angels this season, Kluber allowed two runs on three hits with six strikeouts and two walks in 7.0 innings.
  • Kluber’s 8.63 K/9 is his lowest since 2013, but he has made up for it with a career-low 1.18 BB/9. Kluber has been uncharacteristically homer prone this season, as his 1.24 HR/9 is his highest since 2012.
  • Kluber’s 1.18 BB/9 is the lowest in baseball; Zack Greinke is next at 1.58.
  • Mike Trout is optimistic he will rejoin the starting lineup Saturday, and those first-inning props obviously look a lot different with Trout in the lineup. Prior to injuring his wrist and going 0-for-3 Wednesday, Trout had a six-game hitting streak.
  • Shohei Otani returned to the lineup Friday after two days off and went 4-for-5 with two home runs and a stolen base.
  • The Angels will no doubt want to get Kluber out of the game early, but things will only get marginally better from there. Cleveland’s bullpen got a boost with the return of Andrew Miller , who threw a scoreless inning in his first game off the disabled list Friday.
  • Justin Upton is 5-for-18 with three home runs, five walks and seven strikeouts against Kluber. Upton is 8-for-25 with a home run over the last week.
  • Albert Pujols is 0-for-16 with three strikeouts against Kluber.
  • Kole Calhoun has cooled off a bit over his last two games, but he is still 7-for-23 with two home runs over the last seven days.

Cleveland Indians

  • Felix Pena has allowed 35 strikeouts and 36 hits in 32.2 innings this season, and that would be pretty good if he hadn’t also allowed 14 walks.
  • Pena was terrible in his last start, retiring just one of the nine batters he faced. He allowed seven runs on six hits and two walks.
  • Left-handed batters have a .373 wOBA against Pena this season.
  • While the Angels hope to get their MVP candidate back Saturday, Cleveland has two MVP candidates of its own to throw at Felix Pena . José Ramírez leads the Indians in home runs (32), batting average (.300) and RBI (79). He is fourth in baseball with a .428 wOBA.
  • Ramirez is 8-for-16 with two home runs and two stolen bases during his four-game hitting streak.
  • Ramirez has a .452 wOBA against right-handed pitchers this season.
  • Francisco Lindor has been great in his own right, batting .291/.371/.558 with 27 home runs and 16 steals.
  • This game features the two players who have struck out the least this season. Michael Brantley ’s 8.5 percent strikeout rate trails only Andrelton Simmons . José Ramírez is ninth at 11.3 percent.
  • Not surprisingly, the Indians have the lowest strikeout rate in baseball at 19.3 percent.
  • Only the Red Sox and Brewers have more stolen bases than Cleveland’s 84 this season.
  • Cleveland ranks 16th in MLB with an 8.5 percent walk rate.
  • Leonys Martín is 3-for-5 since joining the Indiants. He is 7-for-18 during his five-game hitting streak.

 

Pre-Game Props

  1. A batter from either team draws a walk in the 1st inning.

Kluber has issued the fewest walks per nine innings in baseball this season, so if anyone draws a walk, it will probably be an Indian. Cleveland has an 8.5 percent walk rate this season, and Pena has a 9.5 percent walk rate. I’m saying NO.

  1. Either team fouls off 5 or more pitches in the 1st inning.

I think both teams have a decent chance to get to this number. The Indians have the lowest strikeout rate in baseball, and the Angels don’t strike out a ton, either. Kluber is missing fewer bats than ever, but he is always around the strike zone, which is a good way to rack up a lot of foul balls. YES.

  1. Either team grounds out 2 or more times in the 1st inning.

Both pitchers strike out roughly a batter per inning, so if we pencil in one strikeout, that means the other two outs would have to be groundouts. Pena has a 48.0 percent groundball rate this season, but he hasn’t generated that many ground balls at any level since low-A ball in 2012. Kluber’s groundball rate is 44.6 percent this season and 44.9 percent for his career. NO.

  1. A LAA batter reaches a full count in the 1st inning.

Kluber has a 44.1 percent zone rate this season and opponents swing at 48.8 percent of his pitches. On the rare occasions he does throw the ball outside the strike zone, his opponents swing 34.9 percent of the time. I think 3-2 counts will be few and far between in this game. NO.

  1. LAA scores in the 1st inning

Kluber is really good, so this seems unlikely, though I will admit, it is a bit more likely if Shohei Otani and Mike Trout are in the lineup. Kluber has a 2.44 ERA the first time through the lineup, so I’m going NO.

  1. 2 or more LAA batters see 5 or more pitches in the 1st Inning

This is complicated. On the one hand, if no LAA batter is going to a full count, how likely is it they reach 5 or more pitches? On the other hand, if they foul off five or more pitches, 5+ pitches in an at-bat is more likely. On another hand, I’m not anticipating more than four LAA batters getting to the plate in the first inning, which has me leaning no. In the end, I think LAA will foul off some pitches, and Kluber throws enough strikes to reach 5+ pitches to two batters without reaching a full count. YES.