Houston Astros @ Los Angeles Dodgers

Houston Astros -109

Games Total: 7.5

Game Play Predictions

Houston Astros

  • The Astros face left-hander Alex Wood for the first time since Game 4 of the World Series, when Wood allowed one run in 5.2 innings.
  • Wood is 7-4 with a 3.68 ERA and 1.17 WHIP in 117.1 innings.
  • Houston has the third lowest strikeout rate in baseball at 19.8 percent, and they rank 10th in walk rate at 9.2 percent.
  • Current Astros are 2-for-14 against Dodgers starter Alex Wood during the regular season, including George Springer , who is 1-for-3.
  • Springer left Tuesday’s game with left shoulder soreness and did not play Wednesday, though he was reportedly available off the bench.
  • Springer has a .359 wOBA against left-handed pitchers this season.
  • Springer had a 1.471 OPS, including five home runs, in the World Series.
  • Evan Gattis is 10-for-24 with two home runs over the last seven days.
  • Tyler White is 5-for-11 with a home run since being recalled from Triple-A Fresno this week.
  • Alex Bregman has a .999 OPS against left-handed pitchers this season.
  • Jake Marisnick was 2-for-4 with a home run Wednesday after he was called up to start for George Springer .

Los Angeles Dodgers

  • The Dodgers will face Justin Verlander , who is 10-6 with a 2.24 ERA this season. He allowed five earned runs in 12 innings against the Dodgers in the World Series.
  • Verlander is arguably having the best season of his Hall of Fame career. His 32.9 percent strikeout rate, 4.7 percent walk rate and 7.04 K/BB are all career highs. Verlander’s 2.88 FIP is his lowest since 2009.
  • The Dodgers have the best walk rate in baseball, but it is likely to go down a bit after facing Verlander.
  • The Dodgers enter this game after scoring a record 21 runs at home against Milwaukee Thursday.
  • Max Muncy leads the Dodgers with 24 home runs despite playing only 88 games. He is the only Dodger to top 20 homers so far this season.
  • Muncy’s 17.0 percent walk rate is fifth among players with at least 300 plate appearances this season.
  • Muncy has struggled a bit of late, going 4-for-34 over his last 10 games.
  • Justin Turner returned from the disabled list Thursday and went 1-for-2 with a walk and a home run.
  • Brian Dozer has been great since joining the Dodgers, going 5-for-9 with two home runs in two games.
  • Yasiel Puig is 6-for-12 with two home runs during his current three-game hitting streak.
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Pre-Game Props

  1. Either team scores in the 1st Inning

The low Vegas point total would suggest NO. Verlander has a 2.22 ERA the first time through the order, while Wood’s ERA is 4.03 the first time through. I will be a bit more hesitant if George Springer is back in the lineup, but either way, I’m saying NO.

  1. HOU batters combine to swing and miss more times than LAD batters in the 1st Inning.

The Astros have the second lowest swinging strike rate in all of baseball at 9.1 percent, but the Dodgers are nearly as good at 9.8 percent. The Astros have actually been significantly better over the last seven days (8.4 percent) which seems impossible with Carlos Correa and José Altuve out. The Astros have the fifth highest contact rate over the last seven days, and the Dodgers have to face  the better pitcher. This is a resounding NO.

  1. Each team reaches base in the 1st Inning

Both pitchers have miniscule walk rates, with Alex Wood at 5.5 percent and Verlander at 4.7 percent. Opposing batters are hitting .193 against Verlander and .241 against Wood. If neither team scores in the first inning, there is a decent chance at least one goes down 1-2-3. NO.

  1. A HOU batter reaches third base in the 1st Inning

Maybe I’m just feeling negative today, but at this point, I feel like I’ve almost backed myself into a corner. If neither team scores, and at least one of the teams fails to rech base, then why would I think an Astro makes it to third. NO.

  1. HOU hits for extra bases in the 1st Inning

At this point, you can probably guess what my answer will be. The Astros have a pretty mediocre .440 slugging percentage over the last week, so that doesn’t hurt. NO.

  1. A HOU batter takes 3 or more consecutive pitches in the 1st Inning

Alex Wood has thrown just 39.1 percent of pitches in the strike zone this season, a career low. It’s kind of amazing his walk rate isn’t higher, but opponents are swinging at a career-high 49.2 percent of his pitches. That being said, only the Dodgers have swung at fewer pitches than the Astros this season, so I will say YES.