Washington Nationals @ Pittsburgh Pirates

Washington Nationals -110

Games Total: 9.5

Game Play Predictions

Washington Nationals

  • The Nationals are 4-0 against the Pirates this season, having held Pittsburgh to just 10 runs scored over those four games.
  • Washington will face Pirates right-hander Iván Nova . Nova is 4-6 with a 4.48 ERA and 1.26 WHIP.
  • Nova’s 1.66 HR/9 is seventh among qualified pitchers, and his 16.3 percent HR/FB rate is 11th.
  • Nova has been prone to home runs throughout his career, but he has overcome it by limiting his walks and throwing a reasonably high number of ground balls.
  • Nova has a 45.9 percent groundball rate and his 1.66 BB/9 ranks sixth among qualified starters.
  • Nova presents an interesting matchup for the Nationals, who rank fifth in MLB with a 9.8 percent walk rate. Washington is just 13th in home runs this season, and Nova will have a chance to go deep into this game if he can keep the ball in the yard.
  • That was not the case in Nova’s only start against Washington this season. Nova allowed two home runs and lasted just 4.2 innings, allowing eight runs (five earned) on 11 hits with five strikeouts and two walks back on May 2.
  • Nova gave up a team-record five home runs in his most recent start.
  • Despite rarely issuing walks, Iván Nova ranks 80th out of 88 qualified starters with a 56.5 percent first pitch strike percentage.
  • While Washington is hitting fewer home runs than in years past, they are making up for it on the basepaths. Only four teams have more stolen bases than Washington this season.
  • Most of their stolen bases have come from Michael A. Taylor and Trea Turner , who rank first and third respectively with 23 and 22 stolen bases. Both have been caught stealing five times.
  • Surprisingly, the Nationals have just one stolen base over the last week, and that belongs to Adam Eaton .
  • Taylor should benefit from facing Iván Nova , who isn’t exactly a strikeout pitcher. Only nine qualified batters have a higher strikeout rate than Taylor.
  • Bryce Harper is second in all of baseball with a 19.6 percent walk rate. It has helped make up for his BABIP, which is just .228. Only five players have been worse this season.
  • Mark Reynolds is one of the hottest hitters in baseball of late, going 10-for-16 with 12 RBI and 21 total bases over the last seven days.
  • Matt Adams has been nearly as good in his four games since returning from the disabled list, going 7-for-15, with at least one hit in each game.
  • Daniel Murphy has struggled since returning from knee surgery, but he should be happy to face Iván Nova . Murphy is 4-for-11 in his career against Nova.
  • Bryce Harper is 5-for-10 with zero strikeouts against Nova.

Pittsburgh Pirates

 
  • The Pirates are 25th in MLB with just 86 home runs on the season.
  • They make up for their lack of power by rarely striking out. Pittsburgh has a 20 percent strikeout rate this season; only the Red Sox have been better.
  • Pittsburgh will face rookie right-hander Jefry Rodriguez , who is making just his third start of the season. In an extremely small sample (14.2 innings), Rodriguez has a 4.91 BB/9 and 1.84 HR/9. Both numbers have to come down significantly if Rodriguez is going to stay in the big leagues for long.
  • Homers have never been a problem for Rodriguez in the minors, but walks have. Rodriguez had never pitched above High-A prior to this season, and in 68.0 innings in Double-A this season, Rodriguez had a 9.53 K/9 and 3.71 BB/9. He could be in trouble against a Pittsburgh team that knows how to take a walk and rarely strikes out.
  • Rodriguez did have a 50.9 groundball percentage at Double-A, so if he can get a couple of double plays, it could help him work around the inevitable walks.
  • Grégory Polanco leads the Pirates with a 13.2 percent walk rate.
  • Pittsburgh just got catcher Francisco Cervelli off the concussion disabled list Sunday, and he could help a team that has scored just 19 runs over the last seven days. Only six teams have been worse than Pittsburgh’s .291 wOBA over that span.
  • Despite Pittsburgh’s recent struggles, they do have a couple of hot hitters. Starling Marte is 9-for-17 with four stolen bases over the last week, while Corey Dickerson in 9-for-19.