Golden State Warriors at Houston Rockets
Game 5: Tied 2-2
GS -1/ Total: 219
This series returns to Houston tied 2-2 after the Warriors saw their 16-game home playoff winning streak snapped in Game 5. Golden State appeared to be on the brink of taking a commanding 3-1 series lead, as they led 80-70 after three quarters.
Both teams shortened their bench considerably in Game 5, but they might need to dig a bit deeper as injuries start to mount on both sides. The Rockets got 57 points combined from Chris Paul and James Harden in Game 4, and they are awfully difficult to beat when both stars are playing well.
Game Play Predictions
Clint Capela and Kevin Durant have contested the opening tip in every game of this series, with each team winning the tip twice.
James Harden had a 40.4 percent usage rate during the regular season, per Cleaning The Glass. Chris Paul was second on the Rockets at 29.6 percent while Eric Gordon was third at 23.3 percent.
The Warriors were +17 in the third quarter of Game 4. They are +32 in the third quarter for the series.
Harden had a 44.9 assist percentage during the regular season, followed by Paul at 38.9 percent.
The Rockets are averaging 13.8 3PM per game during the playoffs. Nobody else in the playoffs is averaging more than 10.8 3PM. The Warriors actually rank ninth at 10.1 3PM per game.
The Warriors and Rockets rank eighth and ninth in the playoffs with 17.6 and 17.4 FTM respectively.
The Warriors have a 99.2 defensive rating with Andre Iguodala on the court and a 102.3 defensive rating when he is off the court.
The Warriors have the best offensive rating and defensive rating in the playoffs. The Rockets rank third in offensive rating and sixth in defensive rating among the 16 playoff teams.
The Warriors have assisted on 63.5 percent of made baskets in the postseason. The Rockets, meanwhile, have assisted on just 51.9 percent of made baskets.
The Warriors had an 8.8 percent turnover rate in their two wins in this series and a 15.8 percent turnover rate in their losses.
The Warriors have allowed 20.1 free throw attempts per game in the playoffs. Only the Pelicans have allowed fewer.
Players to Watch
Houston Rockets
James Harden: Harden was just 3-12 from beyond the arc in Game 4, but he was great defensively, with two blocks and three steals. Harden is 8-33 on threes since Game 1, but he will almost certainly shoot better sooner than later.
Chris Paul: Paul has been dealing with foot soreness in this series, and Rockets’ head coach Mike D’Antoni credited Paul’s improved health with his 10-20 effort from the field in Game 4.
Eric Gordon: Gordon was 4-14 from the field and 1-8 on threes in Game 4. He is averaging 21 points per game at home in this series compared to 12.5 on the road.
Golden State Warriors
Stephen Curry: Curry was otherworldly in Game 3 and in the third quarter of Game 4, but he and his teammates could muster just 12 points in the fourth quarter. Curry was 2-13 on threes in Games 1 and 2 in Houston compared to 12-25 at home in games 3 and 4.
Kevin Durant: Durant is averaging 31.8 points on 48.9 percent shooting in this series, but he was just 9-24 in Game 4. Durant can get his shot off whenever he wants, and it is safe to assume he will shoot better in Game 5.
Klay Thompson: Thompson is listed as questionable for Game 5 with a left knee strain, and it is hard to see how the Warriors can compete if Thompson is out. Shaun Livingston would likely start in Thompson’s place, but he can’t provide the same defense or outside shooting as Thompson. Even if Thompson does play, it is hard to believe he will be 100 percent.
Andre Iguodala: It probably isn’t fair to the Rockets to point out Golden State probably would have won Game 4 if Andre Iguodala had played. The Warriors had to play Jordan Bell and Kevon Looney quite a bit in that game, which is probably one of the reasons Paul and Harden were both able to get their points.