Houston Rockets at Golden State Warriors

Game 4: GS 2-1

GS: -8.5 / Total: 224

Is this the day we finally get a good game in the Conference Finals? No game in either series has been decided by fewer than nine points, and most of the games haven’t even been that close. The Rockets probably need to win to have any chance in this series, even with Games 5 and 7 in Houston.

Houston’s role players stepped up in the Game 2 win, and the Rockets will probably need a similar performance on the road to even the series. Also, if Steph Curry scores 35 points on 23 FG like he did in Game 3, this series is probably over. The first two games both went over 224, but Game 3 was under, mostly thanks to Houston scoring just 85 points.

Game Play Predictions

  • The Rockets have won the tip in two of the three games this series.

  • James Harden had a 40.4 percent usage rate during the regular season, per Cleaning The Glass. Chris Paul was second on the Rockets at 29.6 percent while Eric Gordon was third at 23.3 percent.

  • Harden had a 44.9 assist percentage during the regular season, followed by Paul at 38.9 percent.

  • The Rockets are averaging 13.9 3PM per game during the playoffs. Nobody else in the playoffs is averaging more than 10.8 3PM. The Warriors actually rank ninth at 10.2 3PM per game.

  • The Warriors and Rockets rank seventh and ninth in the playoffs with 18.0 and 16.9 FTM respectively.

  • The Warriors have a 99.2 defensive rating with Andre Iguodala on the court and a 102.3 defensive rating when he is off the court.

  • Kevon Looney has a 23.1 net rating when he is on the court, and they may need to play him more if Iguodala is out.

  • The Warriors have the best offensive rating and defensive rating in the playoffs. The Rockets rank third in offensive rating and seventh in defensive rating among the 16 playoff teams.

  • The Warriors have assisted on 65.0 percent of made baskets in the postseason. Only the 76ers have a higher playoff assists percentage. The Rockets, meanwhile, are 13th in assist percentage at 52.6 percent.

  • The Warriors had an 8.8 percent turnover rate in their two wins in this series and a 14.9 percent turnover rate in their Game 2 loss.

  • The Warriors have allowed the fewest opponents’ free throw attempts in the playoffs at 19.5 per game.

 

Players to Watch

Houston Rockets

James Harden: Harden is averaging 29.3 points, 6.3 rebounds and 6.3 assists on 46.9 percent shooting in this series. Like Kevin Durant, Harden can get a shot whenever he wants, but the Rockets have been at their best when they are pushing the pace and getting open shots for their role players.

Chris Paul: Among the things Houston needs to have go their way to win this series, they probably need Chris Paul to outplay Steph Curry. That hasn’t happened to this point, as Paul is averaging 17.3 points, 8.3 rebounds and 4.3 assists on 40.4 percent shooting in this series.

Clint Capela: Capela hasn’t led his team in rebounds in any of the three games in this series. He is averaging just 10.0 points and 8.0 rebounds, and he was held to 22 minutes in Game 3. On the one hand, Houston might be better off with P.J. Tucker at the five. On the other hand, Capela has been great for Houston all season, and they probably need him to be great again in Game 4.

 

Golden State Warriors

Stephen Curry: Much has been made of Steph Curry’s health, as well as the way Houston targeted him relentlessly on defense in Game 2.

Kevin Durant: Durant has been the only constant in this series for either team. He is unstoppable offensively, and at this point, Houston is probably best served letting him get his points while trying to limit Steph and Klay.

Draymond Green: Green has been impactful on both ends of the court despite shooting 6-19 from the field and 1-7 from three. Green has at least six assists in every game in this series, and it might be time for Houston to give him the Tony Allen treatment and just dare him to shoot.

Klay Thompson: Thompson went off for 28 points on 15 field goal attempts in game one, but he scored 21 points on 25 attempts combined over the next two games. Houston fans have to be scared Klay is just going to start raining threes again at some point in this series.

Andre Iguodala: Iggy is doubtful for Game 4 due to a left knee contusion, and it could be a huge blow for the Warriors if he is out. Iguodala has allowed just one field goal in 41 matchups against James Harden and Chris Paul in this series, and Golden State is woefully thin behind him. They may have to play Nick Young and Quinn Cook heavy minutes, and that could be a disaster defensively.