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Utah Jazz @ Houson Rockets -12 Total: 207.5

Utah will look to extend this series by picking up their second win in Houston. Utah tied the series at 1-1 with a Game 2 win in Houston, but they lost Games 3 and 4 in Utah by a combined 34 points. It may not be much of an oversimplification to say the difference in this series is that Donovan Mitchell is trying to do it all by himself while James Harden finally has help in the form of Chris Paul. Mitchell has led the Jazz in field goal attempts in every game in this series despite shooting just 32.5 percent against Houston.

On the other side, James Harden and Chris Paul have taken turns carrying the Rockets. Harden was just 8-22 from the field with eight turnovers in Game 4, but Houston still won by 13 thanks to Chris Paul’s double-double. Utah probably needs a great game from Mitchell or terrible games from both Harden and Paul if they are to extend this series.

Game Play Predictions

Utah Jazz

  • This series has been played at the second highest pace of the four conference semi-finals series. Utah ranked 25th in pace during the regular season, lowest out of any of the eight teams to advance to the second round.
  • Opponents took just 28.8 percent of their shots from beyond the arc against the Jazz during the regular season. That ranked fourth in the NBA. In this series, 40.8 percent of Houston’s shot attempts have been three-pointers.
  • Utah ranked 24th in turnover percentage during the regular season at 15.0 percent.
  • The Jazz ranked fifth in opponent’s turnover percentage during the regular season at 15.2 percent.
  • Donovan Mitchell used 29.3 percent of Jazz possessions by shooting, passing or turning the ball over during the regular season, per Cleaning The Glass.
  • The Jazz have allowed 18.9 points off turnovers per game during the playoffs. That ranks 13th out of the 16 playoff teams.
  • The Jazz and Rockets own an identical 52.4 assists percentage during the playoffs.
  • Rudy Gobert won 56.6 percent of opening jump balls this season. He was won four out of six opening tips against Clint Capela this season.

Players to Watch

Donovan Mitchell: It is asking far too much of a rookie to carry an entire offense in the playoffs against one of the best defensive teams in the NBA. Mitchell is shooting 32.5 percent from the field on 20.8 FGA per game in this series. Mitchell hasn’t shot better than 40.9 percent in any game in this series after shooting 43.7 percent in the regular season. He probably needs to shoot around 50 percent for Utah to have much of a chance in this game.  

Rudy Gobert: Gobert is shooting 76.9 percent from the field in this series on just 6.5 FGA per game. If he is going to play 30+ minutes again in this game, he needs to take more shots. Utah will likely struggle to score again with Ricky Rubio and Dante Exum both out.

Derrick Favors: With their backs against the wall, will this be the game Utah finally gives Favors more time at center over Rudy Gobert? Favors has a -5.8 net rating in this series compared to -22.5 for Gobert.

 

Houston Rockets

  • James Harden had a 40.4 percent usage rate during the regular season, per Cleaning The Glass. Chris Paul was second on the Rockets at 29.6 percent while Eric Gordon was third at 23.3 percent.
  • Harden had a 44.9 assist percentage during the regular season, followed by Paul at 38.9 percent.
  • The Rockets have assisted on 52.6 percent of baskets in this series, the lowest percentage in the second round. Utah is right behind them at 53.4 percent.
  • The Rockets shot 46.7 percent of their shots from three-point range during the regular season, tops in the NBA. Brooklyn was second at 38.1 percent.
  • Only the Timberwolves and Warriors have committed fewer personal fouls per game during the playoffs than the Rockets.
  • Only four teams had fewer blocked field goal attempts per game than the Rockets during the regular season.
  • The Rockets ranked third in free throw attempt rate during the regular season.
  • No team has had fewer turnovers or allowed fewer opponent’s points off turnovers than the Rockets this postseason. They ranked 11th in turnovers and 13th in opponent’s points off turnovers during the regular season.
  • Clint Capela won 42.6 percent of opening jump balls during the regular season.

Players to Watch

James Harden: Harden is averaging 29.7 points per game in these playoffs despite going 5-25 on threes over his last three games. If Harden shoots better from deep, Utah is in a lot of trouble.

Chris Paul: Paul and Harden have really only shot well at the same time once in this series. Since Game 1, one or the other has had to carry the team. Game 4 was Paul’s turn, as he had 27 points, 12 rebounds and six assists.

Clint Capela: Capela is averaging 15.0 points, 11.5 rebounds, 2.3 assists, 3.3 blocks and 1.5 steals per game in this series. He has outplayed Rudy Gobert, which is another big reason Houston is up 3-1.

Eric Gordon: Gordon has been up-and-down all series, and Houston probably needs him to produce more consistently against Golden State in the next round. Gordon scored just nine points on 3-10 shooting in Game 4.

Pre-Game Props

Q1. The last made shot is a two-pointer.

The Rockets have made 48 threes and 75 free throws in this series compared to 106 two-pointers. The Jazz have made 40 threes and 55 free throws against 108 twos. By my math, 49.5 percent of made shots in this series have been twos. I’m going NO.

Q2. Which team makes more 3 pointers in the 1st Quarter.

Houston has made 48 threes in this series compared to 40 for the Jazz. Houston is more likely to win, but given the payout, I’m going with Utah. The odds of Houston winning aren’t that great.

Q3. Which team scores more points in the 1st Quarter? Utah has a +4 handicap.

Utah is +12 for the game according to Vegas, so you are getting slightly better than that here. That being said, the Rockets have led by at least seven in three of the four games in this series. The exception was Game 2, and since I’m not expecting Utah to win again, I’m picking Houston here.

Q4. Which team wins the opening tip off.

Rudy Gobert has won three of the four opening tips in this series and four of six against Clint Capela this season. In the regular season, Rudy Gobert won 56.6 percent of opening jump balls compared to 42.6 percent for Cling Capela. Give me the Jazz.

Q5. Both teams score by the 11:00 mark.

Both teams have scored by the 11:00 mark in three of the four games in this series. That’s enough for me to say YES. It doesn’t hurt that this series has the second-highest pace out of the four Conference Semi-Final matchups.

Q6. Either Team makes a 3 pointer within their first 3 FG attempts of the game.

The Rockets have made a three on 13.7 percent of their field goal attempts, and Utah is right behind them at 12.3 percent. If the question was “Either Team makes a 3 pointer within their first FG attempt,” this would be an easy no. Considering each team gets three shots at it, I’m going to pick YES.