In my look at Charles Clay last week, I mentioned Austin Hooper as a tight end target with some upside who fantasy players in deeper leagues could pair with somebody like Clay to get a nice balance of safety and upside. It is easy to think of Hooper as a young tight end with upside, especially if you only give him a cursory glance. The Falcons drafted Hooper in the third round in 2016 out of Stanford, which has developed a reputation for producing tight ends thanks to the success of Zach Ertz and Coby Fleener. The learning curve is usually pretty steep for tight ends, so it isn’t unreasonable to think Hooper could take a leap in his second season. Hooper should be in a pretty good situation with a pretty good quarterback, even if the Falcons do not lead the NFL in points per game for a second consecutive season.
That being said, just because a young player has a high ceiling, that does not necessarily mean he is particularly likely to reach it, or that he is worth pursuing in fantasy drafts. To make that determination, we require a deeper dive into his statistics and, just as importantly, his film.
As a rookie last season, Hooper had 19 receptions on 27 targets for 271 yards and three touchdowns. Those numbers are remarkably similar to Cameron Brate’s 2015 campaign, when he had 23 receptions on 30 targets for 288 yards and three touchdowns. Brate broke out last season, finishing seventh among tight ends in PPR scoring. If Hooper can make a similar leap this season, he would be a huge boon to whoever drafted him in fantasy.
Of course, Brate’s breakout was aided by the demise of Austin Seferian-Jenkins. Had ASJ stayed out of trouble, Brate might have remained largely irrelevant for fantasy. Levine Toilolo probably isn’t as talented as Austin Seferian-Jenkins, but he did play 54.9 percent of Atlanta’s offensive snaps in 2016 compared to 39.0 percent for Austin Hooper. The good news on that front is Jacob Tamme is gone. Tamme played 31.7 percent of Atlanta’s offensive snaps last season, so at least one impediment to playing time has been removed.
The other encouraging sign as far as playing time goes is the way the Falcons used Hooper. Hooper ran out of the slot 61 percent of the time at Stanford, but he was all over the formation last season, including on the line, split out wide and even occasionally in the backfield. The Falcons got more creative with Hooper as the season went along, including in the playoffs, and it is reasonable to think they will find even more ways to incorporate him into the offense in 2017.
Hooper is also a solid run-blocker. It is rare to see him whiff on a block, and he has the size and strength to hold his own against linebackers. The Falcons had some success running behind Hooper, and while Toilolo is probably a better blocker, Hooper is a much greater threat as a pass catcher. Hooper probably won’t lead tight ends in offensive snaps next season, but I suspect he leads Atlanta’s tight ends in offensive snaps, which would be a big step in the right direction.
If you include the playoffs, Hooper had four touchdowns on 25 receptions last season. The Falcons had a lot of success getting Hooper one-on-one against a defensive back in a red zone, something that is easier to do with Julio Jones getting double-teamed. Hooper has demonstrated the ability to use his size to get some separation and go make a play on the ball. Unlike some tight ends like Charles Clay and Eric Ebron, Hooper was not limited to underneath routes. While he can sit down in the middle of a zone if needed, he is also capable of making plays down the field.
There were a couple of times during the season, including the SuperBowl, where Matt Ryan went to Hooper but was unable to connect, only to go right back to Hooper on the next play. I think that demonstrates Ryan’s confidence in Hooper, and that confidence is only likely to grow in his second season.
The more I watch Hooper’s film, the more I like the comparison to Cameron Brate, at least in terms of breakout potential. On the field, Hooper and Brate are different players. Brate is taller, slimmer and faster than Hooper, and was used almost exclusively as a receiver last season. Hooper is bigger and stronger, and moves well for his size. He didn’t get too many opportunities to catch the ball and turn upfield last season, but I think defensive backs will have a difficult time bringing him down. Hooper is also a better blocker than Brate, and if I had to guess, I’d probably pick Hooper to get more snaps than Brate this season. Cameron Brate caught 57 passes for 660 yards and eight touchdowns in 2016, and while the touchdowns may be a bit high, I think the other numbers are totally attainable for Hooper if things go well. I also feel like the probably of things going well for Hooper is pretty high.
I had Austin Hooper 19th in my tight end rankings prior to writing this article. He is now 16th, ahead of Jason Witten, O.J. Howard and Julius Thomas but behind Charles Clay. After watching their film I actually think Hooper is the better player with the better quarterback, but Clay’s role is much more assured, even with Anquan Boldin in the mix. I give Clay the slight edge, but I think both players are worth targeting, especially in deeper leagues.