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I love early-season DFS. While there is certainly some value in examining the matchups and predicting which defenses will be good, much of playing DFS at the start of a season is simply identifying players who cost less than their talent and/or opportunity dictates they should. I believe the pricing across the board is a bit more reasonable in Week 1 than it has been in years past, but there are still some players at every price point who I believe will cost more two or three weeks from now. Here they are.
Premium Options
Jordan Reed, WSH – Given the doubt around Rob Gronkowski’s health and his quarterback, Jordan Reed is the top tight end of the week. If you are paying for a top tight end, Reed is the best of the bunch.
Value Options
Zach Ertz, PHI – Zach Ertz averaged 22.8 fantasy points per game over the last four weeks of the season. Jordan Reed was the only tight end with more fantasy points over that span. The Browns will almost certainly have one of the three worst defenses in the NFL this season, and Ertz has an excellent chance of scoring the most fantasy points among tight ends in Week 1.
Antonio Gates, SD – Only six tight ends averaged more fantasy points per game than Antonio Gates last season. Gates is presumably healthy to start the season, and so long as he is healthy he should remain productive. It doesn’t hurt that Gates had six catches for 76 yards against the Chiefs in Week 14 last season.
Jason Witten, DAL – Jason Witten is probably the safest tight end for cash games, and he is cheaper than Ertz and Gates. Witten was almost certainly going to get his share of targets and catches regardless, but the chance that the rookie Dak Prescott leans on his tight end more than usual gives Witten a bit of upside.
Bargain Options
Vance McDonald, SF – The hype has probably gone a bit too far for Vance McDonald, but that isn’t really an issue at this price. There is a pretty decent chance Vance McDonald is a poor man's Gary Barnidge, and that would be just fine so long as you use the money he will save you to get production elsewhere.
Clive Walford, OAK – Walford found his way into this space a lot down the stretch, and of course, he failed to score a touchdown after Week 10. I believe in Walford’s talent, and the biggest question now is how long it takes him to supplant Mychal Rivera and become a key cog in the Oakland offense. There is a decent chance it happens right away, but he is cheap for a reason.
Crockett Gillmore, BAL – I’m not convinced Crockett Gillmore gets more work than Maxx Williams and Dennis Pitta, and it is entirely possible they are all on the field so much that none of them have value. That being said, there is also a chance Gillmore gets a bunch of work and costs $1,000 more next week. That is probably a chance worth taking in a GPP.
| Player | Team | H/A | Opp | G | Snaps | TAR | TAR/G | REC | REC/G | REC/TAR | REYDS | RETDS | FUM | $FD | $DK | $FA |
| Rob Gronkowski | NE | A | ARI | 15 | 759 | 120 | 8 | 72 | 4.8 | 0.6 | 1,176 | 11 | 0 | $8,700 | $7,400 | $5,700 |
| Jordan Reed | WAS | H | PIT | 14 | 627 | 114 | 8.14 | 87 | 6.21 | 0.76 | 952 | 11 | 3 | $7,400 | $6,600 | $5,200 |
| Travis Kelce | KC | H | SD | 16 | 863 | 103 | 6.44 | 72 | 4.5 | 0.7 | 875 | 5 | 2 | $6,400 | $5,000 | $5,150 |
| Coby Fleener | NO | H | OAK | 16 | 587 | 84 | 5.25 | 54 | 3.38 | 0.64 | 491 | 3 | 0 | $5,400 | $4,900 | $4,750 |
| Gary Barnidge | CLE | A | PHI | 16 | 799 | 125 | 7.81 | 79 | 4.94 | 0.63 | 1,043 | 9 | 0 | $6,300 | $4,700 | $4,800 |
| Tyler Eifert | CIN | A | NYJ | 13 | 716 | 74 | 5.69 | 52 | 4 | 0.7 | 615 | 13 | 0 | $6,300 | $4,700 | $4,700 |
| Delanie Walker | TEN | H | MIN | 15 | 648 | 133 | 8.87 | 94 | 6.27 | 0.71 | 1,088 | 6 | 0 | $6,500 | $4,500 | $4,700 |
| Zach Ertz | PHI | H | CLE | 15 | 688 | 112 | 7.47 | 75 | 5 | 0.67 | 853 | 2 | 1 | $5,700 | $4,300 | $4,300 |
| Antonio Gates | SD | A | KC | 11 | 371 | 85 | 7.73 | 56 | 5.09 | 0.66 | 630 | 5 | 0 | $6,200 | $4,200 | $4,300 |
| Jason Witten | DAL | H | NYG | 16 | 952 | 104 | 6.5 | 77 | 4.81 | 0.74 | 713 | 3 | 1 | $5,500 | $4,100 | $4,200 |
| Eric Ebron | DET | A | IND | 14 | 559 | 70 | 5 | 47 | 3.36 | 0.67 | 537 | 5 | 0 | $5,100 | $3,900 | $4,250 |
| Jimmy Graham | SEA | H | MIA | 11 | 536 | 74 | 6.73 | 48 | 4.36 | 0.65 | 605 | 2 | 0 | $6,100 | $3,800 | $4,900 |
| Julius Thomas | JAC | H | GB | 12 | 508 | 80 | 6.67 | 46 | 3.83 | 0.58 | 455 | 5 | 0 | $5,800 | $3,800 | $4,400 |
| Zach Miller | CHI | A | HOU | 15 | 480 | 46 | 3.07 | 34 | 2.27 | 0.74 | 439 | 5 | 0 | $0 | $3,700 | $3,600 |
| Martellus Bennett | NE | A | ARI | 11 | 600 | 80 | 7.27 | 53 | 4.82 | 0.66 | 439 | 3 | 2 | $5,100 | $3,400 | $4,200 |
| Jesse James | PIT | A | WAS | 8 | 162 | 11 | 1.38 | 8 | 1 | 0.73 | 56 | 1 | 0 | $4,500 | $3,400 | $3,000 |
| Charles Clay | BUF | A | BAL | 13 | 636 | 77 | 5.92 | 51 | 3.92 | 0.66 | 528 | 3 | 1 | $5,000 | $3,400 | $4,200 |
| Will Tye | NYG | A | DAL | 13 | 439 | 62 | 4.77 | 42 | 3.23 | 0.68 | 464 | 3 | 1 | $5,200 | $3,300 | $3,500 |
| Dwayne Allen | IND | H | DET | 13 | 487 | 29 | 2.23 | 16 | 1.23 | 0.55 | 109 | 1 | 0 | $5,500 | $3,200 | $4,200 |
| Richard Rodgers | GB | A | JAC | 16 | 739 | 85 | 5.31 | 58 | 3.63 | 0.68 | 510 | 8 | 0 | $4,800 | $3,100 | $4,000 |
| Vance McDonald | SF | H | LA | 14 | 400 | 46 | 3.29 | 30 | 2.14 | 0.65 | 326 | 3 | 2 | $4,700 | $3,100 | $3,500 |
| Jordan Cameron | MIA | A | SEA | 16 | 698 | 70 | 4.38 | 35 | 2.19 | 0.5 | 386 | 3 | 1 | $5,000 | $3,000 | $4,150 |
| Justin Perillo | GB | A | JAC | 9 | 79 | 13 | 1.44 | 11 | 1.22 | 0.85 | 102 | 1 | 0 | $4,600 | $3,000 | $3,000 |
| Clive Walford | OAK | A | NO | 16 | 393 | 50 | 3.13 | 28 | 1.75 | 0.56 | 329 | 3 | 0 | $4,700 | $3,000 | $3,500 |
| Kyle Rudolph | MIN | A | TEN | 16 | 804 | 73 | 4.56 | 49 | 3.06 | 0.67 | 495 | 5 | 0 | $5,300 | $3,000 | $4,300 |
| Jared Cook | GB | A | JAC | 16 | 630 | 75 | 4.69 | 39 | 2.44 | 0.52 | 481 | 0 | 2 | $5,300 | $2,900 | $4,450 |
| Cameron Brate | TB | A | ATL | 14 | 257 | 30 | 2.14 | 23 | 1.64 | 0.77 | 288 | 3 | 0 | $4,600 | $2,900 | $3,500 |
| Larry Donnell | NYG | A | DAL | 8 | 389 | 41 | 5.13 | 29 | 3.63 | 0.71 | 223 | 2 | 0 | $4,900 | $2,900 | $3,600 |
| Austin Seferian-Jenkins | TB | A | ATL | 7 | 189 | 39 | 5.57 | 21 | 3 | 0.54 | 338 | 4 | 0 | $5,400 | $2,800 | $4,250 |
| Jacob Tamme | ATL | H | TB | 15 | 770 | 81 | 5.4 | 59 | 3.93 | 0.73 | 657 | 1 | 0 | $5,000 | $2,800 | $3,900 |
| Luke Willson | SEA | H | MIA | 14 | 415 | 26 | 1.86 | 17 | 1.21 | 0.65 | 213 | 1 | 0 | $4,800 | $2,700 | $3,950 |
| Marcedes Lewis | JAC | H | GB | 16 | 586 | 37 | 2.31 | 16 | 1 | 0.43 | 226 | 0 | 0 | $4,600 | $2,700 | $3,300 |
| Darren Fells | ARI | H | NE | 14 | 548 | 28 | 2 | 21 | 1.5 | 0.75 | 311 | 3 | 0 | $4,700 | $2,700 | $3,400 |
| Jace Amaro | TEN | H | MIN | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | $4,700 | $2,700 | $3,000 |
| Tyler Kroft | CIN | A | NYJ | 16 | 311 | 15 | 0.94 | 11 | 0.69 | 0.73 | 129 | 1 | 0 | $4,900 | $2,700 | $3,600 |
| Brent Celek | PHI | H | CLE | 16 | 415 | 35 | 2.19 | 27 | 1.69 | 0.77 | 398 | 3 | 1 | $4,900 | $2,700 | $3,800 |
| Garrett Celek | SF | H | LA | 11 | 392 | 28 | 2.55 | 19 | 1.73 | 0.68 | 186 | 3 | 0 | $4,500 | $2,700 | $3,000 |
| Vernon Davis | WAS | H | PIT | 6 | 264 | 30 | 5 | 18 | 3 | 0.6 | 194 | 0 | 0 | $4,800 | $2,600 | $3,700 |
| Ryan Griffin | HOU | H | CHI | 9 | 237 | 34 | 3.78 | 20 | 2.22 | 0.59 | 251 | 2 | 0 | $4,700 | $2,600 | $3,300 |
| Crockett Gillmore | BAL | H | BUF | 10 | 487 | 47 | 4.7 | 33 | 3.3 | 0.7 | 412 | 4 | 0 | $4,900 | $2,600 | $3,500 |
| Dennis Pitta | BAL | H | BUF | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | $4,900 | $2,600 | $3,000 |
| Maxx Williams | BAL | H | BUF | 14 | 439 | 48 | 3.43 | 32 | 2.29 | 0.67 | 268 | 1 | 1 | $4,800 | $2,600 | $3,500 |
| Mychal Rivera | OAK | A | NO | 16 | 331 | 46 | 2.88 | 32 | 2 | 0.7 | 280 | 1 | 2 | $4,600 | $2,600 | $3,600 |