For the second offseason in a row, the WNBA saw a lot of very good players change teams, including several All-Stars and a two-time MVP. With the WNBA season set to begin May 14, now is a good time to catch up with all 12 WNBA teams with an eye towards betting and fantasy.

2020 Results

12-10 Record, sixth in the WNBA. Lost in the first round of the playoffs.

Offseason Moves

?      Signed free agent Candace Parker.

?      Signed free agent Astou Ndour.

?      Signed Lexie Brown to a training camp contract

?      Signed Azura Stevens to a contract extension

?      Signed Brittany Boyd to a training camp contract

Draft Results

Chicago’s only need going into the draft was a true backup point guard, and they attempted to fill that need by selecting Shyla Heal with the eighth overall pick. The last time the Sky made a surprising pick in the first round they passed on Arike Ogunbowale and Napheesa Collier to select Katie Lou Samuelson, who will play for her third team in as many seasons in 2021. Sky general manager and head coach James Wade was impressed by how Heal held her own as a 19-year-old against professional players, including several WNBA players, in Australia. At worst, Heal should fill the role Sydney Colson occupied last season, but it would be somewhat surprising if she started any games as a rookie, even if Courtney Vandersloot has to miss time.

Offseason Breakdown

The Sky were eighth in the league in defensive rebounding rate and defensive rating last season, and they addressed those issues by adding the reigning Defensive Player of the Year and league’s leading rebounder from a year ago in Candace Parker. Parker is 35 years old but made All-WNBA first team last season despite playing for a coach in Derek Fisher who never seemed to appreciate how good she was. Parker should fit in every Sky lineup, mostly at the four but also, I suspect, at the three. She is a huge addition to a team that probably didn’t need to add much.

Sky head coach and general manager James Wade traded Astou Ndour to the Dallas Wings last offseason for the first-round pick they eventually used on Shyla Heal. They essentially replaced Ndour on the roster by traded for Azura Stevens. Both Ndour and Stevens are tall centers whose best attribute is their three-point shooting. I didn’t like the trade because I didn’t trust Stevens to stay healthy, though I did acknowledge Dallas overpaid for Ndour. After one highly disappointing season, the Wings bought out the remaining years on Ndour’s contract and she re-signed with the Sky. At this point, it seems unlikely she will begin the season in the rotation, assuming she sticks on the roster. That being said, she is the perfect insurance if Stevens and/or Stefanie Dolson suffer injuries again.

Lexie Brown went from starting 13 of 17 games for a playoff team to getting waived and signing a training camp contract. This is a great piece of business for the Sky, assuming Brown makes the roster ahead of Brittany Boyd, which she should. Brown did not shoot well in the wubble but she should get a lot more open shots playing alongside so many playmakers in Chicago. For as much shooting as Chicago has in the frontcourt, their wing depth chart features a lot of players who are better at getting to the rim than spotting up. Brown is a perfect fit for this roster and in her fourth season, she still has room for growth.

Projected Starting Five

PG Courtney Vandersloot

SG Allie Quigley

SF Diamond DeShields

PF Candice Parker

C Stefanie Dolson

I am especially excited to see how James Wade rotates his players this season, especially how he starts and ends games. Realistically, the only player who has to start is Courtney Vandersloot. She is fifth all-time in assists in the WNBA and has led the league in assists in three consecutive seasons. The Sky have other players who are capable of running the point, but not at the same level as Vandersloot.

The rest of my projected starting lineup is far from a sure thing. Candace Parker is still playing at an incredibly high level but she is also 35 years old, and bringing her off the bench to limit her minutes wouldn’t be the craziest idea I have ever heard. It would also save James Wade from having to move a player who has started for him in the past to the bench.

Allie Quigley fits perfectly in the starting lineup as a floor spacer who does not need to have the ball in her hands. She is great working to get open off the ball, especially when the bigs setting screens are also capable shooters. That being said, Quigley will also be 35 in June, and bringing her off the bench would allow for a more athletic starting lineup.

Diamond DeShields and Stefanie Dolson have been regular starters in their Sky careers, though injuries in the wubble caused both to have to come off the bench, where they largely struggled. The best version of this team has both DeShields and Dolson returning to the high level of play they showed before the pandemic, and as such, it makes sense for Wade to start them both and give them time to round into form, should they need it. That being said, Kahleah Copper and Azura Stevens both played very well as starters in 2020, and keeping them in the starting lineup would certainly be defensible. Gabby Williams would probably need multiple absences ahead of her on the depth chart to get a chance to start, but coming off a EuroLeague season in which she was named Defensive Player of the Year and All-EuroLeague first team, we probably can’t rule it out.

2021 Outlook

Between their offseason additions and a couple of stalwarts returning to their usual high levels, the Sky will almost certainly be better than they were in 2020. The problem for the Sky is that most of the teams they are competing with also got better. The Sun are getting Jonquel Jones Back, while Washington returns Elena Delle Donne and gets Tina Charles for the first time. Minnesota added Kayla McBride. The Aces bring back Liz Cambage and added Chelsea Gray. Chicago could have a much better team and still finish sixth in the standings for the second consecutive season.

That being said, sixth feels like Chicago’s absolute floor. The Sparks didn’t replace Chelsea Gray or Candace Parker, and I don’t think they are a lock for a playoff spot. Phoenix did well to add Kia Nurse but I don’t know if that is enough to keep them ahead of Chicago in the standings.

Chicago was fourth in offensive rating last season, and that will almost certainly improve. With Parker, Dolson, Stevens and Ndour, Chicago has four bigs who can space out to the three-point line and a point guard who will find them when they are open. That should open up plenty of space for Diamond DeShields and Kahleah Copper to get to the basket, and it will also make it more difficult to defend Allie Quigley or Lexie Brown when they are flying off the screens on the weak side.

The Sky were second in offensive rating in 2019 with Dolson, Ndour and DeShields healthy, and by adding Parker and Azura Stevens to that group, I think they could challenge Washington, Seattle and Las Vegas for the best offense in the league.

What could determine if the Sky are actual title contenders is how much they improve defensively. This team has underperformed its defensive talent under James Wade, but it certainly has more proven ability on that end with Candace Parker replacing Cheyenne Parker. Gabby Williams can be a lockdown defender as well, though she sometimes isn’t fast enough to chase around wings when she plays the three. When she is completely healthy, Diamond DeShields has the size and athleticism to be very good defensively, but she hasn’t shown it yet in the league. I think the Sky will be better on that end, but if they are only average, it probably won’t be enough for them to win a title.

Outside of their rookie draft pick and the health of a couple of veterans, the Sky roster is full of players who are known commodities at this point in their careers. The wild card for this team may be Gabby Williams. Williams’s WNBA development has been uneven at best, most likely due to James Wade’s obsession with turning Williams into a point-forward and his loathness for playing her at the four, which is probably her best position. On the one hand, adding Parker and Ndour probably guarantees Williams will never play the four in a Sky uniform. On the other hand, if Williams shows the game that landed her on the All-Euroleague Women First Team and led her to be named Euroleague Women Defensive Player of the Year, the Sky could be unstoppable.

Betting Outlook

At 14/1, the Sky are my favorite bet to win the championship. I think there are a few different ways we can look at Chicago’s championship hopes, and all of them point to this being a ridiculously good price. First of all, the Sky were 9-4 last season when Azura Stevens played and 3-6 with her out. I don’t necessarily expect Stevens to stay healthy, but Chicago’s added frontcourt depth should allow James Wade to play her fewer minutes during the regular season. The Sky are also much better-positioned to replace Stevens if she suffers another absence.

With that in mind, another way to look at the Sky is that they added a first-team All-WNBA player to a team that finished sixth last season, yet they somehow have the seventh-best championship odds. That also indicates we’re getting very good value here, and that hasn’t even factored in better health for Stefanie Dolson and Diamond DeShields.

Last season my take on the Sky was that they needed Diamond DeShields to play at an All-WNBA level to be serious title contenders. They probably can get to the WNBA finals even if DeShields doesn’t get there, but we can’t forget that she is only 26 and almost certainly has that kind of upside.

Fantasy Outlook

For fantasy, the Sky may be a better version of the Atlanta Dream. Chicago has a ton of offensive talent and the best outside shooting in the league, especially in the frontcourt. With so many good players, don’t expect anyone to get a ton of minutes or have a super-high usage.

Of course, these players have proven they can be productive even in limited opportunities. Diamond DeShields and Stefanie Dolson could be nice values following disappointing seasons, though I worry Dolson won’t go back to playing 25+ minutes per game as she did in each of her first three seasons with Chicago.

Candace Parker is a bit of a wild card for fantasy. She could see her minutes decrease, and it may take some time for her to develop chemistry with her new teammates. That being said, getting away from Derek Fisher is certainly a positive, and I think she probably fits better with Chicago’s roster than she did in Los Angeles. I think she’ll be a GPP play until we see for ourselves how James Wade uses her.

I think the rest of Chicago’s roster could be overpriced to begin the season because the Sky are so much deeper now than they were at the end of 2020. That being said, anyone who gets a spot start would likely have a ton of fantasy value, and I could also see myself targeting some of the cheaper bench players in potential blowout games, like whenever the Sky face Indiana.

The other thing to keep an eye on for the Sky is how fast they play. They have been in the top four in pace in seven consecutive seasons, leading the league in pace in 2019. Courtney Vandersloot is always going to look for hit-ahead passes and opportunities in semi-transition, which is why this team is always in the top third in pace. With more athleticism in the frontcourt and Diamond DeShields hopefully at full strength, I suspect the Sky will lead the league in pace yet again. Combine that with an efficient offense and they should generate a ton of fantasy points, even if those points are distributed fairly evenly amongst several players.