Week 14 has arrived and that means the all-important first round of the fantasy football playoffs are here. This is also one of the last times we expect to see teams play outside of their divisions as the NFL has been scheduling the last two or three divisional games for teams the last few weeks of the season for the last several years in order to try and force a lot more games with playoff implications. There are a few teams that have already clinched playoff spots in Week 13 but with the number one seed being so important this year as well as winning the division, don’t expect any teams to be resting easy yet.
Make sure to keep up-to-date with all of the latest in Covid-19 news ahead of lineup locks with the Fantasy Alarm Live Covid Blog.
Going forward we have added several stats to each match-up table for a total of 33 stat categories that will highlight some key differences between the teams and where we can find the mismatches to take advantage of. All of the same stats are there, though in a slightly different spot, but there are now nine more added on, most of which are under the Advanced Stats section. There will also be a smattering of extra interesting stats for the match-ups.
Click here to see a key for what the stat categories mean, including the newly added ones. The color-coding in each matchup table is geared toward an offensive player’s perspective. So the more green you see, the better that matchup is for an offensive player, and vice versa the more red you see, the worse for an offensive player that matchup is that week.
Def vs. Pos categories are based on ½ PPR scoring formats
Match-Up Breakdowns
New England (6-6) at Los Angeles (8-4)
Jared Goff has a passer rating of 46.1 when under pressure this year and 106.1 when not. Luckily for him though, the Rams’ offensive line has been good against pressure and NE is in the bottom-six of teams in generating pressure with their D-line.
Cam Newton has the lowest passer rating of any quarterback in a qualified season for New England since Tom Brady in 2001 and now faces the best pass defense in the league based on yards allowed and the fourth best in terms of Passing DVOA.
The Rams have the third-best rush defense based on yards allowed but the Patriots offensive line is a run-blocking line and has the third-best advantage in that department according to PFF’s O-Line/D-Line Matchup Chart.
Both teams are predicated on the running game so it may be a quick-moving game on Thursday and the Rams will want to protect Goff who was originally exposed in the Super Bowl against New England and hasn’t been the same since.
Minnesota (6-6) at Tampa Bay (7-5)
On the FAmily Times podcast this week, Jon Impemba, Justin Fensterman and I talked about playing studs and who your studs are at this point and Kirk Cousins should be in that discussion with a 15:2 TD:INT ratio since Week 12.
While the Saints get all the attention for their streak of holding runners under 100 yards, the Buccaneers haven’t allowed a 100-yard rusher since Week 9 of last year, 20 games.
The Vikings also haven’t allowed a 100-yard receiver since Week 7 and are only one of two teams to pull that off.
That being said, and both defenses being in the top-nine of Pass DVOA, there are three wide receiver match-ups in the top-12 of the PFF WR/CB Matchup Chart including Antonio Brown and Justin Jefferson along with Chris Godwin having the second-best match-up of the week.
Neither team generates a ton of pressure on opposing quarterbacks and neither offensive line allows much either so it might be a sneaky spot for a GPP game stack.
Arizona (6-6) at New York (5-7)
This is not the match-up the Cardinals want to get back on track (1-4 in their last five games) as the Giants have been very good defensively the last four games, topping double-digit fantasy points three times and allowing less than 20 points in three-straight games for the first time since 2009.
Arizona’s hope to win may depend on Kyler Murray ’s leg’s rather than arm as he’s 11-5 when he carries it six or more times and 0-11-1 when he carries it five or fewer times.
The Giants’ offense is likely to lean on Wayne Gallman again has he’s had a score in five of the last six games and back-to-back 90-yard games heading into this match-up in which Arizona has allowed 110 or more rushing yards eight times this year.
While Arizona has the best red zone offense in the league, New York has the sixth-best red zone defense in terms of percentage of trips that become touchdowns.
Kansas City (11-1) at Miami (8-4)
This match-up pits the number two scoring offense against the number two scoring defense and in his career, Patrick Mahomes is 7-0 when facing a top-five scoring defense.
Miami has allowed 21 or fewer points in 9-of-12 games this season which is the most in the NFL, however, they have also scored 20 or fewer points in each of the last two starts by Tua Tagovailoa.
Both teams are in the bottom seven in the league in yards per attempt allowed for rushing and both are 24th or worse in terms of DVOA against the run.
We saw Kansas City struggle the last two games inside the red zone on offense (scoring a TD only 57.5-percent of the time on the season) and now they face the Dolphins’ defense that is in the top-10 in red zone conversion percentage defensively while Kansas City is the worst red zone defense in giving up touchdowns.
While the Chiefs are 17-5 September-November the last two years, they are now 6-0 in December and have only allowed 11.3 PPG compared to the 22.5 PPG in the other three months.
Tennessee (8-4) at Jacksonville (1-11)
Jacksonville is allowing nearly 137 yards per game on the ground, third-most in the league, and Derrick Henry has averaged just over 111 yards a game vs. the AFC South in his career.
Ryan Tannehill is the first Titans’ quarterback to post back-to-back seasons with a passer rating of 100 or better.
A sneaky match-up this week might be Tyler Eifert for the Jaguars as Tennessee is dead last in DVOA against TEs and Eifert has seen 17.4-percent of the teams targets in the red zone, for the full season, and he’s cheap.
Based on how much Jacksonville passes (second-most in the league) and how poor the Titans pass defense has been this year, nearly 275 yards a game (fifth-most in the league) and 30th ranked in Pass DVOA, and how little Jacksonville’s defense does in general, this could be a candidate for the high-scoring game of the day.
Dallas (3-9) at Cincinnati (2-9-1)
The Andy Dalton revenge game is here, and in fact, he’s the first quarterback to face his former team that he’s still the franchise leader in touchdowns for, since Peyton Manning in 2013.
The Bengals rush defense hasn’t gotten any better since 2017 as they’ve allowed 125-plus yards per game on the ground each season and Ezekiel Elliott has averaged 127.6 scrimmage yards per game vs. the AFC North in his career.
If Brandon Allen is at quarterback the Bengals' offense should have some life against the 30th-ranked DVOA Cowboys’ defense while Andy Dalton should continue the resurgence he’s had in the last two games against the 29th-ranked DVOA Bengals defense and both teams aren’t good against secondary receiver options.
Gio Bernard is also a nice play as the Cowboys are allowing the most rushing yards per game at nearly 168.
Houston (4-8) at Chicago (5-7)
Two teams that have played better than their records show are matching up this week as Deshaun Watson and Mitch Trubisky both have the stats to prove it.
Watson has a 110.0 passer rating this year despite the losing record which is an NFL record for highest mark with a sub-.500 record. Trubisky meanwhile has been responsible for adding nearly nine points a game to the Bears offense, 96 yards per game, and 83 rushing yards per game in his starts for Chicago.
The Bears have also scored 24 or more points in four of Trubisky’s five starts and now faces the worst Texans’ defense in their team’s history.
If Watson is going to keep that passer rating up and have another good game, he’ll have to rely on his secondary targets as the Bears are the best defense against opposing WR1s based on DVOA.
Denver (4-8) at Carolina (4-8)
Two slumping teams head into this one as Teddy Bridgewater has lost six straight games and Drew Lock is the only quarterback with 10-plus interceptions and fewer than 10 passing touchdowns in the NFL this season.
Christian McCaffrey might be back this week but Carolina is 0-3 with him on the field this year (4-5 without) though it’s a solid match-up for him as the Broncos allow over 130 yards a game. Meanwhile, Melvin Gordon is on pace to be the third Broncos’ running back since 2006 to have 900-plus rushing yards and over eight touchdowns facing the Panthers’ rush defense that’s allowed over 115 yards a game on the ground.
Scoring touchdowns near the 20 might be tough here as well since both teams are 26th or worse in punching in touchdowns in the red zone while both defenses have been good at stopping opposing offenses from scoring touchdowns there as well.
New York (0-12) at Seattle (8-4)
The Jets are heading to Seattle at the perfect time for the Seahawks as they need a get right team and unlike their cohorts in New York, the Jets are the perfect get right team.
The Jets have allowed 30 or more points to all seven non-divisional opponents they’ve faced this year and with the Jets ranking 32nd in Pass DVOA and 30th against opposing WR1 which gives DK Metcalf one the best match-ups of the week.
Jamison Crowder should also see some nice work as the Seahawks are still allowing the most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers and Crowder has been the favorite target of Jets’ quarterbacks.
While Seattle lost last week, they still kept their average points per game allowed under 20 for the last four games and they’ve been getting after the quarterback much better since getting Carlos Dunlap .
Indianapolis (8-4) at Las Vegas (7-5)
Two teams looking to solidify their playoff standings and a potential sneaky shootout candidate this week.
Indianapolis has allowed 30-plus points in two of their last three games with some key injuries but the Raiders have also scored 30 or more points in four of their last five games.
Derek Carr has an 8:0 TD:INT ratio in his career against the Colts while Philip Rivers has the most passing yards and touchdowns against the Raiders in their history and has been far better over the last seven games this year.
For those hoping to capitalize on Darren Waller after his huge game against the Jets, be aware the Colts haven’t given up 100 or more receiving yards to a tight end since Week 8 of 2016.
Washington (5-7) at San Francisco (5-7)
While both teams come in with the same record, they are in two different places at this point as the Niners are playing in another teams’ stadium for home games now and are all but out of the NFC playoffs while Washington is coming off the biggest win of the year and are fighting for a division title.
On the surface, Washington’s defense has been great this year and good at shutting down opposing passing attacks as they’ve been in the top-five spots nearly all year in most metrics, though a weakness is their DVOA against number-one wideouts where they are the worst in the league.
While San Francisco’s pass defense is quite good as well, Terry McLaurin might still be in good shape because the two corners he’s likely to see the most on Sunday are the two that give up the most FP/RT and allow the best catch rates on the team as well.
New Orleans (10-2) at Philadelphia (3-8-1)
Congratulations Jalen Hurts, you now get to face one of the better defenses in the NFL for your first start as the Saints are top-five from PPG through pass yards per game. Rookie QBs are also 1-6 against the Saints since 2016.
New Orleans hasn’t allowed over 13 points to a running back since Week 5 of this year and with the Eagles bad offensive line, that may not change this week either. Interestingly, he’s not the only one who may find issue as Alvin Kamara hasn’t registered more than 100 yards from scrimmage with Taysom Hill at QB and six times with Drew Brees under center.
The Saints have allowed fewer than 17 points in five straight games and the Eagles haven’t scored more than 17 points in four straight games as well so this may be a bit of a defensive battle as the Eagles have a solid defense as their top-15 in many defensive categories in the table.
Atlanta (4-8) at Los Angeles (3-9)
This game has shootout written all over it as the Falcons and Chargers both have strong offenses but defenses that aren’t very well versed in shutting down opposing offenses.
Atlanta is allowing the most points to quarterbacks this year and Justin Herbert is putting up the eighth-most per game at just under 22 points a game.
Justin Herbert is one of five quarterbacks in the league to post more than 275 yards a game, over 20 touchdowns and less than 10 interceptions this year.
If all else fails for the Falcons, they can turn to Younghoe Koo as he’s posted 38 points the last three games while the rest of the team has posted 24 combined.
The Chargers rank 30th in DVOA against WR2 and 27th against TEs so Calvin Ridley and Hayden Hurst might be in line for good days.
Green Bay (9-3) at Detroit (5-7)
The Packers have destroyed NFC North opponents this season as they’re averaging 37.0 PPG against them, the third-most versus divisional opponents by any team in the Super Bowl era.
Detroit’s defense has been their downfall this year as they haven’t stopped the run at all, in fact, are the worst defense against the run in some metrics, and they can’t stop the pass either.
Detroit is heading into this game with a new coach this week, and typically over the last several years teams have won their first game after firing their former coach have won 66-percent of the time, but in this case, firstly two teams have already won their year after firing their coach, and secondly, the Lions haven’t beaten the Packers with an interim head coach since Week 14 of 1988.
Davante Adams will be nearly impossible to stop as he’s the only wide receiver this year to have 10 or more targets on seven different routes this season.
Pittsburgh (11-1) at Buffalo (9-3)
Fresh off their first loss of the season, the Steelers might be looking to change things up offensively this week as they’ve run less than 40-percent of the time in seven straight games which is the longest streak for them in the last 50 years.
For the Bills it will be key for them to get some work out of their running game aside from Josh Allen to keep the Steelers’ defense honest, though Pittsburgh is allowing the second-fewest fantasy points to running backs and Devin Singletary has been struggling.
The interesting match-up here is Eric Ebron as the Bills are allowing the most catches to TEs this year and Ebron has posted 10 or more FP in six of his last seven games and has been a big red zone target for Ben Roethlisberger and the Bills defense is middle of the road in red zone conversion rate.
Baltimore (7-5) at Cleveland (9-3)
So last week the Browns helped their case by beating a winning team for only the second time this year and Baker Mayfield continued to look good in the last few games, this is a tougher opponent though.
The Ravens still have a venerable defense that is top-10 in numerous defensive categories including DVOA, Pass DVOA, and Rush DVOA.
The four losses for Baltimore have been by six or fewer points so they are keeping them close and with both offenses putting up very similar numbers in rushing and with the quarterbacks this should be another close game.
Both teams are top-five in rushing offense and top-three in percentage of run plays called but the Browns are also better at stopping the run allowing just 104 yards a game.