First and foremost, Happy Thanksgiving to everyone! We’re all very fortunate in the grand scheme of things, so it’s always nice to take some time to remember how lucky we really are. Glass half full!
With the holiday and multiple large slates, we’re going to do try tweak the format of the playbook a little bit this week. We’re going to go through each game in the main slates with some relevant data and then add a couple notes and list out the guys we think make for good plays and any interesting tidbits that go along with the logic behind them. We’ll do one for Friday and follow the same format on Saturday. As always, we’ll put together a few lineup examples for you at the end. Don’t hesitate to let us know what you think! Let’s jump in...
TEXAS @ KANSAS
Texas -15, O/U 49, Implied Total - Texas 32, Kansas 17
Texas Defense Alllows - 136.5 Rush YPG, 264.5 Pass YPG
Kansas Defense Allows - 174.4 RYPG, 255.2 PYPG
Unfortunately, we aren’t sure who will play QB for Texas. All signs point to Ehlinger being available, but there’s certainly a chance that both he and Ehlinger see snaps, so we’ll probably avoid most of the Texas passing game due to DNP/injury risks and there are plenty of other options. Steven Sims and the Kansas passing game seem undervalued against a team that’s know to give up chunk plays through the air. That said, the line may struggle to give them enough time to develop.
Targets:
WR Lil’Jordan Humphrey
RB Keontay Ingram
RB Tre Watson
QB Peyton Bender - cheap contrarian play
RB Pooka Williams
WR Steven Sims Jr
WR Stephon Robinson Jr - Minimum Dart
NEBRASKA @ IOWA
Iowa -10, O/U 53.5, Implied Total - Iowa 32, Nebraska 21.5
Nebraska Defense Allows - 194.2 RYPG, 248.6 PYPG
Iowa Defense Allows - 100.8 RYPG, 180.1 PYPG
The obvious play would be to target the Iowa run game, but who leads in carries this week is anyone’s guess. Prevailing wisdom says it will be Mekhi Sargeant, but technically the banged up Ivory Kelly-Martin is the depth chart starter. For this reason, there’s risk with any Iowa RB, but the upside will be there if they hit. Similarly, there’s risk with JD Spielman, but he’s “expected to play”. The risk is all yours…
Targets:
RB Mekhi Sargeant
RB Toren Young
WR JD Spielman
WR Stanley Morgan
RB Devine Ozigbo
HOUSTON @ MEMPHIS
Memphis -7, O/U 75, Implied Total - Memphis 41, Houston 34
Houston Defense Allows - 178.5 RYPG, 298.9 PYPG
Memphis Defense Allows - 156.0 RYPG, 241.5 PYPG
This should be a shootout and one that you’ll want tot archer for the dart throws and discounted players due to the volume of possessions and opportunities for points. With D’Eric King our for the year, it sounds like both Quinton Dormandy and Clayton Tune will see action, so it’s hard to recommend anything there, though Tune should get the first shot. He may get hot and go crazy as a low ownership guy, but that’s not much more than a shot in the dark lottery ticket. Everyone from Memphis is in play and with Damonte Coxie questionable, Pop Williams gets a boost for cheap numbers. That said, it would be nice to see him not drop 5 balls a game.
Targets:
WR Marquez Stephenson
WR Raelon Singleton
RB Patrick Carr
QB Brady White
RB Darrell Henderson
RB Patrick Taylor
RB Tony Pollatd
WR Damonte Coxie
WR Pop Williams
BUFFALO @ BOWLING GREEN
Buffalo -14.5, O/U 61.5, Implied Total - Buffalo 38, BGSU 23.5
Buffalo Defense Allows - 179.6 RYPG, 177.5 PYPG
BGSU Defense Allows - 276.7 RYPG, 170.5 PYPG
I’m genuinely curious to see how Buffalo attacks Bowling Green. Typically they are a run first, play action deep ball team, but I’m not sure they will need to play action based on Bowling Green’s atrocious run defense (noted above, almost 300 RYPG allowed). This gives me pause for Anthony Johnson/Tyree Jackson and makes discounted guys like Kevin Marks and Emmanuel Reed attractive, as there is a committee at RB for the Bulls. Patterson is their Mekhi Sargeant and has the upside to go for 200 and 3 scores IF he can dominate carries. But that’s the same kind of upside that Johnson has in the passing game if they use it. In other words, Buffalo will have their way however they choose, my guess is on the ground.
Targets:
QB Tyree Jackson
WR Anthony Johnson
RB Jaret Patterson
RB Kevin Marks
ARKANSAS @ MISSOURI
Missouri -23, O/U 61.5, Implied Total - Missouri 42, Arkansas 19
Arkansas Defense Allows - 166.6 RYPG, 247.0 PYPG
Missouri Defense Allows - 129.4 RYPG, 267.1 PYPG
Big Albert O is questionable and there are plenty of other injury issues at wide receiver for the Tigers. We like the matchup for Lock, but don’t really know who he’s going to throw to past Emmanuel Hall, limiting his ceiling. Larry Rountree is the top ground option for Mizzou.
Targets:
QB Drew Lock
RB Larry Rountree
WR Emmanuel Hall
WR Albert O (if he plays)
WR Johnathan Johnson
WR Cheyenne O’Grady
VIRGINIA @ VIRGINIA TECH
Virginia -4.5, O/U 50, Implied Total - Virginia 27, Va Tech 23
Virginia Defense Allows - 148.3 RYPG, 178.4 PYPG
Virginia Tech Defense Allows - 208.2 RYPG, 228.4 PYPG
Virginia Tech defense is a shell of its former self and as long as Bryce Perkins plays, Virginia should find plenty of success. Not much else to write home about here beyond him and Olimade Zaccheaus.
Targets:
QB Bryce Perkins
RB Olimade Zaccheaus
EAST CAROLINA @ CINCINNATI
Cincinnati -18.5, O/U 50, Implied Total - Cincy 34, ECU 16
ECU Defense Allows - 155.6 RYPG, 242.6 PYPG
Cincy Defense Allows - 104.2 RYPG, 185.3 PYPG
I’m not convinced Vegas has this right. I know Cincy has a good defense, but I really like Holton Ahlers at the helm of the ECU offense and his dual threat ability with tempo. For betting purposes, I think this goes over pretty easily. With Deandre Farrier out, Tyler Snead gets a bump again. Hussein Howe is expected to start at RB for ECU, replacing the injured Darius Pinnex, thought Anthony Scott and Trace Christian will also see carries and the matchup isn’t great. For Cincy, Michael Warren is a bellcow stud and will be in most of my lineup options.
Targets:
RB Michael Warren
QB Holton Ahlers
WR Trevon Brown
WR Tyler Snead
OREGON @ OREGON STATE
Oregon -17.5, O/U 69.5, Implied Total - Oregon 43.5, Oregon State 26
Oregon Defense Allows - 151.2 RYPG, 244.3 PYPG
Oregon State Defense Allows - 271.8 RYPG, 267.4 PYPG\
Oregon State defense is (insert emoji for fire and poop here). Dillon Mitchell has been (fire emoji) for two months now and should feast again. He’s a lock for every cash lineup and I also really like CJ Verdell (supposed to be back) and even Travis Dye, as I think Oregon will score a bunch. For State, Jermar Jefferson is a volume option, probably better for cash games.
Targets:
QB Justin Herbert
RB CJ Verdell
RB Travis Dye
WR Dillon Mitchell
RB Jermar Jefferson
UCF @ SOUTH FLORIDA
UCF -14, O/U 69.5, Implied Total - UCF 42, USF 28
UCF Defense Allows - 213.2 RYPG, 205.9 PYPG
South Florida Defense Allows - 231.6 RYPG, 200.0 PYPG
For DFS purposes, UCF has been frustrating for me. They spread the ball around so much and defy trends well enough that the model doesn’t project well for them. They have 4-5 receivers that all have similar skill sets and projecting which if them will go off is a crapshoot. That said, we expect them to score and it’s worth getting the exposure to Milton and a couple of receivers. South Florida is no cloudy offensively either and will need to score to keep pace. Johnny Ford has eaten into Jordan Cronkrite’s workload, and Blake Barnett has a stable of receivers to utilize as well. Everyone here is in play too.
Targets:
Hard to go wrong here
Example Lineups:
Main
QB - Holton Ahlers
RB - Michael Warren
RB - CJ Verdell
WR - Trevon Brown
WR - Steven Sims
WR - Tyler Snead
FLEX - Tony Pollard
SFLEX - Brady White
Main (more for cash)
QB - McKenzie Milton
RB - Jaret Patterson
RB - Michael Warren
WR - Dillon Mitchell
WR - Steven Sims
WR - Dredrick Snelson
FLEX - Emmanuel Reed
SFLEX - Peyton Bender
Main (afternoon eligible)
QB - McKenzie Milton
RB - Jermar Jefferson
RB - CJ Verdell
WR - Darnell Salomon
WR - Tyler Snead
WR - Dredrick Snelson
FLEX - Larry Rountree
SFLEX - Bryce Perkins
Main (afternoon eligible)
QB - Bryce Perkins
RB - CJ Verdell
RB - Michael Warren
WR - Dillon Mitchell
WR - Darnell Salomon
WR - Tyler Snead
FLEX - Travis Dye
SFLEX - Holton Ahlers