GENERAL STRATEGY:
We're going to blow our budget on quarterbacks and running backs. We've got five QB's we really love, and we're going to work them into all our lineups. Kyler Murray and McKenzie Milton are the top plays, but it requires getting really thin with bottom-end receivers. Taylor Cornelius seems to be a steal and could very well be the best value on the board. Gardner Minshew and Brock Purdy should have strong fantasy weeks and can provide a good substitution when you've got to allocate money elsewhere. Regardless, it looks to us like a two-headed signal-calling monster across the board filling up that SuperFlex. "No Tua," you ask? Based on his week-to-week performance, and the recent pounding of LSU, this might be an oversight, but we're not going to bite the week that they've got Mississippi St. We'll be wrong, but man look at those Bulldog defensive stats - something has to give...right?
We're also willing to spend on backs, but only the right ones. Trayveon Williams might be our lock of the week going up against a suspect Ole Miss rush defense. We also really like James Williams catching a million passes out of the backfield for Wazzu, and David Montgomery should continue to rack up fantasy points. A little further down the line, we like "Lil' Bow Wow", Isaiah Bowser. He has a rough matchup with Iowa and fairly stout run defense, but you can't deny the 20+ carries each of the last three weeks. UCF's Taj McGowan also presents plenty of inrigue. Coming at a decent price, he's getting a handful of touches each week. UCF seems to be distributing the load, and there should be enough to go around as they destroy Navy. Chuba Hubbard is another value flyer. His workload has steadily increased this season, and Justice Hill needs a break every once in a while. Bedlam should be a scoring orgy, so we'll bring our Chuba to the party.
Oh boy, now we have to talk about wide receivers. We have no money. This isn't good. The only baller we're crazy about is David Sills V. He's coming in at $1,000 cheaper than a few weeks ago, and this is with six touchdowns in his last four games. TCU is no cupcake in their secondary, but Sills should find the end zone. With going heavy on QB and RB, we were forced to take some stabs at the middle of the pack, and also some deep deep prayers. In the middle, we kinda like choosing an Ohio State receiver and cross our fingers. Michigan St has a dominant run defense, but is susceptible to getting torched through the air. We probably like K.J. Hill the best, but Terry McLaurin and Johnnie Dixon could work. Getting picks like this wrong is so frustrating though, so forget what we just said. Tyron Johnson has been more consistent as of late for Okie St, and could be the benefactor of that game being a shootout. Washington St is also interesting when it comes to WR's. Do you take Tay (Davontavean) Martin at a decent value even though he is completely feast or famine (see: one catch for one yard last week). He's down to $5,000, which might be a steal if you can hit on the week that he catches between 8 and 13 Minshew passes. Or do you go real cheap and try to hit on a flyer with a player like Jamire Calvin. Maybe only target deep Wash St receivers if you don't know what to do with your remaining pocket change. Speaking of our leftover change...... We like Deandre Thompkins for Penn State this week. He's been nonexistent this season, but had a nice little breakout last week with Juwon Johnson on the sidelines. We've definitely got our eye on Tarique Milton of Iowa State. They're going to put up points on Baylor, and there should be enough balls to get value out to a $3,800 player. For super value, we've found a couple in the $3,000 range that might just be the compliment you need for your Murray/Milton lineup. Brandon Smith of Iowa has at least one reception in his last four games, and consistency reigns supreme on these deep flyers (heavy sarcasm). We also like the $3,200 Navy wideout Taylor Jackson coming off his five-catch, 120 yard performance. If he could get half of that we would be ecstatic.
QB Kyler Murray | Okla | Ok St | $10,800 | Risk: Very Low | Upside: Very High | |
The Murray train keeps rolling. He’s accounted for 24 TDs in his last 5 games. He’ll put up numbers no matter who is across the line of scrimmage. That includes the middle of the road Oklahoma State Cowboys. There is no reason to believe that he won’t put up 300+ passing and 100+ rushing once again. | ||||||
QB McKenzie Milton | UCF | Navy | $10,500 | Risk: Very Low | Upside: Very High | |
UCF has taken a lot of heat for their cupcake baking skills and while it may not help them in the CFB playoff rankings, it is helping them in the QB stats department. Milton is a dual-threat nightmare for opposing defensive coordinators. Navy is pretty bad in both rush and pass defense so expect to see Milton used in a lot of lineups. | ||||||
QB Gardner Minshew | Wash St | @Col | $8,700 | Risk: Very Low | Upside: Very High | |
Washington State in a shootout? It seems hard to believe, right? Pirate Mike Leach’s signal-caller should throw the ball 50+ times in this one. That much volume provides a great “low floor, high ceiling” type of play. | ||||||
QB Brock Purdy | ISU | Bay | $8,200 | Risk: Low | Upside: High | |
There isn’t a player in college football who’s stock is on the rise more than Brock Purdy. He’s single-handedly made the Cyclone offense one to be reckoned with. Yes, his price tag has also gone up week by week as well but his stats are still worth what you can get him for. | ||||||
QB Taylor Cornelius | Ok St | @OU | $7,700 | Risk: Medium | Upside: Very High | |
Taylor Cornelius checks all the boxes we’re looking for in a value QB. He has the capability to sling the rock with the best of them, has an elite receiver that can take a game over, commands a high-powered offense, and is playing in a game that should also be a shootout. | ||||||
RB David Montgomery | ISU | Bay | $7,600 | Risk: Very Low | Upside: Very High | |
We’ll assume the low work load last week against Kansas was a product of the lopsided score early. Without that outlier Montgomery is routinely getting 25+ carries, topping the 100 yard mark and finding the end zone. This week Montgomery will get the joy of outrunning a 97th ranked Baylor rush defense. | ||||||
RB Trayveon Williams | Tx A&M | Ole Miss | $7,500 | Risk: Very Low | Upside: Very High | |
Trayveon Williams is another player who, thanks to one bad week against a great defense, is undervalued. Excluding the game against Miss State, WIlliams is a production machine. Pair that with an Ole Miss rush defense that ranks 108th and you have a very low risk, high reward DFS play. | ||||||
RB James Williams | Wash St | @Col | $6,900 | Risk: Medium | Upside: High | |
It’s tough to recommend a running back that routinely get less than 10 carries a game but there’s a reason James Williams is fantasy relevant week in and week out. What he lacks in touches on the ground he makes up for in catches out of the backfield. Not only does this give him the total touches of other backs but you’re getting reception points as well as a high probability Williams will have the ball in open space. | ||||||
RB Isaiah Bowser | Northwestern | @Iowa | $5,100 | Risk: Medium | Upside: High | |
Bowser seems to have solidified himself as the number one back at Northwestern. Over his last three games he has over 20 carries in each and is averaging over 100 yards per game. The Iowa run defense is staunch, which makes this a risky play but at $5,100 I have a feeling Bowser will slot nicely into lineups. | ||||||
RB Taj McGowan | UCF | Navy | $4,300 | Risk: High | Upside: Medium | |
McGowan’s volume won’t turn any heads but twice in the last three weeks he’s had multi-touchdown performances. You can’t go big everywhere and if you chose to skimp out on running back McGowan isn’t a bad option. Keep in mind this game against Navy should get out of hand so McGowan could see more work than normal. | ||||||
RB Chuba Hubbard | Ok St | @OU | $3,700 | Risk: Medium | Upside: Low | |
Hubbard hasn’t found the endzone in his last four contests but his consistency sets him apart from other players in this price range. With about ten touches per game, maybe this is the weekend he finds the endzone in a game that’s called Bedlam for a reason. | ||||||
WR David Sills V | WVU | TCU | $7,700 | Risk: Low | Upside: Very High | |
There are a lot of mouths to feed in Morgantown but also a lot of touches to go around. Sills has gotten his week after week after week so we’re not too worried about him having a dud of a game. As mentioned above he has 6 TDs in his last 4 games and he should find the endzone in this contest as well. | ||||||
WR KJ Hill | OSU | @MSU | $5,800 | Risk: Medium | Upside: High | |
KJ Hill had an off week last week against Nebraska but put up 9 catches each of the two games before that. We have a feeling last week was more of an outlier than a trend. Michigan State has the 98th ranked pass defense so there are several Ohio State receivers that could be good plays. KJ Hill has the highest odds of being the guy. | ||||||
WR Davontavean Martin | Wash St | @Col | $5,000 | Risk: Medium | Upside: High | |
Tay Martin is hit or miss. Washington State has every opportunity to put up points and if Martin can get open his stats should pile up. His price is coming down after the aforementioned 1-for-1 performance last week. The guy is better than that and will show up this week. Be there. | ||||||
WR Cody White | MSU | tOSU | $4,200 | Risk: Medium | Upside: High | |
Cody White has the talent to be a receiver worth a lot more than $4,200. He’s proved that he can be that type of receiver for the Spartans earlier this year before breaking his hand. He was worked back into the lineup last week but was held on a play count. This week he has the opportunity to break out back into the spotlight. | ||||||
WR Tarique Milton | ISU | Bay | $3,800 | Risk: Medium | Upside: Medium | |
Milton has benefited from Brock Purdy’s success, and Purdy should have a lot of success in this one. His targets, receptions, and yards are all a good choice for the money, but the game-changer for Milton is if he can find the endzone. | ||||||
WR Deandre Thompkins | Penn St | Wisc | $3,300 | Risk: High | Upside: Medium | |
Thompkins emerged last week for Penn State with five catches for 59 yards. With Juwan Johnson dinged up it seems that Thompkins is the man to fill that offensive void. Johnson is questionable for this weekend so it might be worth more research prior to kickoff. | ||||||
WR Taylor Jackson | Navy | @UCF | $3,200 | Risk: High | Upside: Medium | |
In a very similar story to Deandre Thompkins, Jackson brokeout last week for a 5/120/1 stat line. He hadn’t done much up to that game but Navy should be in just as much of an early hole as they were last week. | ||||||
WR Brandon Smith | Iowa | NW | $3,000 | Risk: Low | Upside: Low | |
If you get any production out of a $3,000 you should be happy about it. Smith has a low ceiling but seems to catch at least a few passes every game. Brandon Smith isn’t too bad of a $3,000 dart. | ||||||
Main Example Lineup:
QB Kyler Murray $10,800
RB Trayveon Williams $7,500
RB James Williams $6,900
WR Deandre Thompkins $3,300
WR Cody White $4,200
WR Brandon Smith $3,000
Flex Chuba Hubbard $3,700
SFlex Mckenzie Milton $10,500
Main Example Lineup:
QB Kyler Murray $10,800
RB Trayveon Williams $7,500
RB James Williams $6,900
WR Tarique Milton $3,800
WR Davontavean Martin $5,000
WR Taylor Jackson $3,200
Flex Isaiah Bowser $5,100
SFlex Taylor Cornelius $7,700
Main Example Lineup:
QB McKenzie Milton $10,500
RB Trayveon Williams $7,500
RB David Montgomery $7,600
WR Davontavean Martin $5,000
WR Brandon Smith $3,000
WR Deandre Thompkins $3,300
Flex Taj McGowan $4,300
SFlex Gardner Minshew $8,700
Main Example Lineup:
QB Brock Purdy $8,200
RB Trayveon Williams $7,500
RB James Williams $6,900
WR David Sills V $7,700
WR K.J. Hill $5,800
WR Taylor Jackson $3,200
Flex Brandon Smith $3,000
QB Taylor Cornelius $7,700
Saturday Night Example Lineup:
QB - D'Eriq King - Hou - $11,300
RB - Ryquell Armstead - Temple - $7,300
RB - Rakeem Boyd - Ark - $4,700
WR - Ventell Bryant - Temple - $4,900
WR - Tre' McKitty - FSU - $3,100
WR - TJ Vasher - TTech - $6,200
Flex - Zach Austin - TTech - $3,100
SFlex - Sam Ehlinger - Texas - $9,300
FanDuel
As always, the Fandual slate is mostly similar but has a few key differences. Here is what we think the optimal lineup will look like:
QB - Kyler Murray - $10,700
S-Flex - QB McKenzie Milton - $10,400
Can’t go wrong with these two.
RB - David Montgomery - $9,100
RB - Damien Harris - $8,100
Montgomery should answer the call against Baylor as we talked about above. Damien Harris is the first new face we see in this lineup. We weren’t able to work him into our draftkings lineups but his pricepoint fit perfectly into our lineup here. With Najee Harris having injury concerns hopefully the Tide will lean on their experienced lead back against Mississippi State.
WR - David Sills V - $9,700
WR - Zach Abey - $6,800
WR - Cody White - $5,200
I’m not sure if doubling down on Cody White was the best of decisions but we like him significantly more than anyone else in his pricepoint. The real excitement here is Zach Abey. The former Navy QB was moved to WR this season but took back over the Navy offense last week. It appears that he could be starting under center again this week and if you can get Navy QB fantasy numbers for middle of the road receiver value, it could payoff big.