DFS CFB Playbook: Week 7 Saturday

Ohio State

44

UCF

43

Memphis

39

Texas A&M

37

Notre Dame

37

Oklahoma State

34

Penn State

33

Auburn

31

Washington

30

Georgia

29

Texas A&M

27

Oregon

27

Kansas State

27

South Carolina

25

Baylor

23

LSU

22

Michigan State

20

Pitt

17

Tennessee

16

Minnesota

15

QB McKenzie Milton

UCF

@Mem

$10,400

Risk: Low

Upside: Very High

Easily the best player on the slate, Milton is priced accordingly. He’s also expected to be in a bit of a shootout, though I think he’ll be playing with the lead, which may hurt his passing numbers. He does run a lot as well though, but at his price it’s hard not to factor some gameflow risk. He very well may score 50+ too, so there’s definitely more than enough upside to pay it off.

QB Ian Book

ND

Pitt

$8,700

Risk: Low

Upside: Very High

Book has changed the entire complexion of the ND offense since taking over 3 games ago. He gets the benefit of taking on a struggling Pitt defense. In games not against Georgia Tech and decided by less than 45 points (Penn State), Pitt has allowed an average of 275 yards passing and 2 scores. I obviously discount those because GT doesn’t throw the ball and nobody does when they are up 40, but Milton put up 328 and 4 scores passing on them two weeks ago for reference. Unfortunately, they don’t really stop the run either...more on that below.

QB Brady White

Mem

UCF

$7,800

Risk: Medium

Upside:Very High

ON the other side of Milton will be Brady White. He certainly appears to have found a home finally, and has showcased well playing off of the dominant ground game of Darrell Henderson and company, with a 15-1 TD:INT ratio through 6 games so far. There can be games where his production gets overshadowed (read: swallowed) by the ground game, but against UCF they won’t be able to have the luxury of being one-dimensional. Add in that they will likely be playing from behind and that short passes can be huge gains in the hands of his explosive playmakers, and he’s a good value play.

QB Charlie Brewer

Bay

@Tex

$6,500

Risk: Medium

Upside: High

Another value option, Brewer has emerged as to top option for Baylor over the past three weeks. It’s a game he’s sure to be needed in at Texas, whose defense has been solid, but not impenetrable through the air. Baylor won’t stop Texas very often, so he might actually approach the 60 attempts he had a few weeks back as they try to keep up. If you spend for someone like MIlton, you’ll probably want to land here.

QB Skylar Thompson

Kan St

Ok St

$5,600

Risk: High

Upside: Very Good

He’s cheap. He’s the better passing option of the revolving QB door for the Wildcats. In a game they are sure to be trailing, it’s certainly plausible he gets on a bit of a run and cannibalizes the snaps and puts up solid numbers. Oklahoma State’s defense has been susceptible to the pass this year, so his upside is ahead of other flex options, which gets him in the playbook.

RB Dexter Williams

ND

Pitt

$8,200

Risk: Low

Upside:Very High

The risk here is the inverse risk of Book earlier. Either could go for 50 because Pitt doesn’t really stop much run or pass. In his 2 games since returning from injury/suspension (Va Tech and Stanford) he has run for 239 yards and 4 scores. It’s hard to see him being under 100 and a score.

RB Justice Hill

Okla St

@KSt

$6,900

Risk: Low

Upside: Very High

Remarkably, Justice Hill has scored in 12 straight games. It’s easy to see that streak continuing and his price has started to slide down as well, probably in large part to the fact that he’s only had 6 receptions on the year and one multi-TD game. The talent is there for a big game and he has shed a lot of the committee since conference play started, dominating caries recently.

RB Darrell Henderson

Mem

UCF

$9,500

Risk: Medium

Upside: Very High

The man who is actually tasked with staring down Milton is Henderson. This kid is an absolute monster, with 4/6 games over 174 rushing yards and multiple TDs in every game this year.

RB JaMycal Hasty

Bay

@Tex

$4,500

Risk: Medium

Upside: High

Trestan Ebner stole a bunch of carries last week and is also someone to keep an eye on as well ($4700). He was non-existent before last week, so I’m going with Hasty over him, but acknowledging the risk. It’s been a fluid committee, but Hasty has gotten consistent carries every week and is an explosive playmaker. He also has some involvement in the passing game (as evidenced by his 7 catch performance against Oklahoma while trailing). He’s a value option.

RB Otis Anderson

UCF

@Mem

$5,500

Risk: Medium

Upside: Good

A cheaper option in the projected shootout where there should be enough points to go around. Involved in both the pass and run game, with 5 total TD’s on the year. Also coming off his best game of the year, with 74 rushing yards and 2 scores.

RB Patrick Taylor

Mem

UCF

$4,000

Risk: Medium

Upside: Good

Like Anderson, he’s the backup running back who is still well involved in the offense consistently and a discounted cost. Broke 3 TD’s last week and racked up 161 yards in the process. Obviously, that’s not repeatable, but it’s more to show that he’s a threat to score with every touch and there will be a ton of possessions so he should see some increased chances. ALso in this same mold is Tony Pollard at $3300 if you need additional cost cutting. He will get less chances but he’s cheaper.

WR Miles Boykin

ND

Pitt

$7,300

Risk: Low

Upside: Very High

Boykin has been another emerging star since Book took over at QB. In the past two games with Book, he has 19 catches for 261 yards and 3 scores. His pice isn’t prohibitive and ND will score at will. He should get his.

WR Aaron Fuller

Wash

@Ore

$6,900

Risk: Low

Upside: High

Fuller has topped 100 yards in 3 of his last 4 games, though he’s only scored twice on the year. Oregon has some secondary issues and I think Jake Browning will be able to exploit them if he’s given the chance. Fuller will be beneficiary in that event.

WR Jalen Hurd

Bay

@Tex

$6,500

Risk: Low

Upside: Hugh

The converted running back has been a pleasant surprise as a receiver this year. Added bonus is that there is still a wildcat package for him around the goal line, so he’s got multiple ways to score. I’ve gone over the Texas defense ad nauseum already, but he makes a nice pair with Brewer at a very reasonable price.

WR Denzel Mims

Bay

@Tex

$5,700

Risk: Low

Upside: High

Mims is more of a true receiver but fits everything else written about Hurd. I’ve even come up with scenarios where i package all three and have lots of money for studs.

WR Damonte Coxie

Mem

UCF

$6,000

Risk: Medium

Upside: Very High

He’s been a little bit boom or bust recently, but that’s been more gameflow based and I chalk that Friday night Tulane debacle as an aberration. Winning by 40 against UConn and running for a million TD’s took him out of the other one. He’s the primary target for Brady White and has tons of talent and should be highly involved in this one.

WR Landon Wolf

Okla St

@KSt

$5,300

Risk: Medium

Upside: Good

In the two games since his return (and Jalen McCleskey’s departure) Wolf has taken 12 catches for 179 yards and a couple scores. He’s another mid-value guy to take a long look at.

WR Darrell Stewart Jr.

MSU

@PSU

$3,700

Risk: High

Upside: Solid

Someone has to be a secondary target to Felton Davis following the injury to Cody White and it is going to be either Stewart or Brandon Sowards ($3800). Stewart is the better player and should get a bump as I expect Sparty to be trailing Penn State most of the day. They’re both a super cheap dart throw that lets you spend elsewhere.