We are back for a full slate of action on Saturday and we have a lot to cover here. We will again focus on the main slate on DraftKings and provide lineups for you FanDuelers out there. Let’s jump in. I’d like to point out which of the ten games available that we’ll be targeting. You’ll see plenty of players from these teams in there. Here is a look at the 10-game slate with some interesting metrics to go with them. In parentheses, you’ll see my projected points based on vegas implied points and my own little touch on them:
12:00 PM EST:
Alabama (46) at Arkansas (10.5)
Kansas (20.2) at West Virginia (45.5)
Texas (27.5) at Oklahoma (34.4)
Maryland (14.4) at Michigan (32.4)
Northwestern (16.5) at Michigan State (27.3)
3:30 PM EST:
LSU (24.1) at Florida (22.4)
Iowa State (22.3) at Oklahoma State (32.2)
Clemson (40.3) at Wake Forest (21.8)
Florida State (16.6) at Miami-FL (30.2)
Indiana (21) vs. Ohio State (44.4)
When looking at these 20 teams, here is the general strategy/consensus:
-Don’t touch anybody on Arkansas. Anybody.
-Alabama could get away early and even Tua Tagovailoa is risky due to potential playing time concerns. The RB and WR are crap shoots even though they are likely to score 40+ on the Razorbacks (who, by the way, have been better on defense than expected).
-West Virginia should have a field day against the Jayhawks, which makes Will Grier an obvious target. But, where do you go for the wide receivers there? Could make an argument for any/all of them (Gary Jennings Jr., David Sills V and/or Marcus Simms). I do have RB Martell Pettaway as a cheap ($3,500) dart throw in a lineup. He hasn’t scored but has 33 carries and can get involved in the passing game.
-Kansas should have plenty of plays to try to keep pace and RB Pooka Williams has been a nice surprise this season. Could get him in a GPP lineup.
-OU/Texas will be a lot of fun. I expect Texas to keep pace and the Longhorns have a better defense than many OU has seen thus far. QB Kyler Murray is in play every week, but I’m fading him. Can go with either Marquise Brown or CeeDee Lamb at WR here and still waiting to see that breakout from RB Trey Sermon after the season-ending injury to Rodney Anderson. I’m not betting on it this week. I do like Texas QB Sam Ehlinger a little bit as he’s starting to come into his own and the OU defense has been suspect at times this year. Can’t trust any of the backs or pass-catchers there.
-This Maryland offense put up 42 points on a really solid Minnesota defensive unit. They put up 34 on Texas earlier this year. They are not a bad unit and have some intriguing pieces. Though, they get Michigan this week, who is the best they have faced all season and it’s on the road. Both running backs Ty Johnson and Lorenzo Harrison III could find the end zone, but it will be tough sledding. Avoiding many Terps, just because of the matchup.
-The storyline for Michigan is whether or not Chris Evans takes the field and cuts into Karan Higdon’s carries. If not, we will see a lot of Higdon against the suddenly stout Maryland rush defense (just 2.67 yards per carry allowed this year). I don’t trust QB Shea Patterson. Looks like we are avoiding Wolverines too - clearly, Nick Dunning isn’t writing this piece.
-Northwestern is fresh off losing their starting running back Jeremy Larkin to retirement and now get the top rush defense in the land in the Spartans. QB Clayton Thorson may take to the air a bit more than usual as the Spartans secondary has been thrashed at times this year. I’ll be taking a look at WR’s Bennett Skowronek and/or Flynn Nagel with TE Cameron Green, who has emerged as a threat in the passing attack too.
-Michigan State has just been ugly thus far on offense. They get a middle-of-the-pack Northwestern defense and should be able to move the ball. RB LJ Scott is questionable and that’s enough for me to avoid this situation - even if word breaks that he is suiting up. Could take a stab in tournaments with either Connor Heyward or La’Darius Jefferson. The receiving corps is banged up as Cody White is out indefinitely and both Jalen Nailor and Darrell Stewart Jr. are questionable. That leaves Felton Davis III and Laress Nelson as the top two options for QB Brian Lewerke.
-LSU and Florida are two of the top defensive units in the country and will likely make life difficult for each other’s offensive units. Probably best to avoid this one. If you just can’t help yourself, take a stab at one of those Gators WR Tyrie Cleveland or Freddie Swain to get loose. LSU RB Nick Brossette or Clyde Edwards-Helaire will see plenty of volume, but not much running room.
-Iowa State comes to OK State with QB Zeb Noland still filling in for starter Kyle Kempt. RB David Montgomery was once the catalyst for this offense, but has been banged up. He’s probable and should play - and - with OK State’s aggressive defense that likes to dial up pressure, he could be a factor in this one. Somebody to consider certainly - just make sure he isn’t a late scratch. WR Hakeem Butler is their best playmaker on the outside and we have no problem getting him in a lineup as well.
-We all know about Oklahoma State’s offense and while it has been slightly inconsistent, they are still top 15 but will be getting a tough(er) test from the Cyclones. You can certainly go with QB Taylor Cornelius and/or RB Justice Hill. There is no James Washington in the receiving corps but with Dillon Stoner a question mark, we will be looking at Tyron Johnson and/or Tylan Wallace. Wallace leads the team with 30 grabs for 546 yards and three scores. He’s topped 100 yards in four of the five games this year. He’s a cash game play.
-Wake Forest has a pretty good offense but Clemson’s defense is just mean. Avoid like the Razorbacks - except, maybe - take a look at WR Greg Dortch who is just dominating and it doesn’t appear to matter who is playing against him. Or, a minimum dart-throw on Scotty Washington and his $3,000 price tag when you need some salary relief.
-Clemson looks like they are getting QB Trevor Lawrence back in time for this one. Keep an eye out just in case, but he seems to be a popular GPP pick. RB Travis Etienne is starting to find his groove and Wake doesn’t do much in the way of stopping opposing backs, allowing 4.74 yards per rush and 8 rushing scores. Etienne is a top play in my book. The receivers spread it out a bit too much for my liking, but would certainly throw big-play prospects in GPP’s with Tee Higgins and/or Justyn Ross.
-Florida State’s offense has been much maligned this year but appears to have cleared a small hurdle. They managed 37 on a solid (but undersized) NIU defense and put up 28 last week in an ugly 28-24 win over Louisville - who doesn’t have a bad defense. But, this is Miami. No thanks.
-Miami will likely keep going with N’Kosi Perry at quarterback and with WR Ahmmon Richards still sidelined, we could make an argument for Jeff Thomas and/or Lawrence Cager. At running back, Travis Homer is solid but DeeJay Dallas keeps cutting into his production. And, FSU is still a decent defense.
-We are seeing Indiana scoring three touchdowns against Ohio State - mainly because of volume and likely needing to play catch-up. If the game script goes that way, we could live with QB Peyton Ramsey at a discounted price as a super-flex option and/or one of the few healthy receivers: Nick Westbrook, Ty Fryfogle and/or Donavan Hale. Even J-Shun Harris II could be a GPP dart throw. RB Stevie Scott isn’t a bad value at his discounted price and may find his way into some lineups for me as well.
-You can’t go wrong with building around Dwayne Haskins in any of your lineups. Let’s be clear about that. Sure, after week one, J.K. Dobbins has separated himself from the threat of Mike Weber, but we know another Weber-week is coming soon and this could be it. Saving both of those guys for Tourneys. Take your pick at WR between Parris Campbell, K.J. Hill and/or Austin Mack. All three are likely to contribute similarly and you can hope the one (or two?) you choose breaks out from the pack.
DraftKings: Example Cash Lineup
QB - Dwayne Haskins, OSU - $9,800
RB - Karan Higdon, Mich - $7,700
RB - Kennedy McCoy, WVU - $5,000
WR - Hakeem Butler, IASt - $6,400
WR - Felton Davis III, Mich St - $5,600
WR - Bennett Skowronek, NW - $4,000
Flex - Nick Westbrook, Ind - $3,900
S-Flex - Sam Ehlinger, Tex - $7,400
DraftKings: Example GPP Lineup
For this one, I just wanted to see if it is possible to get a Grier/Haskins/Etienne lineup created. Here is what that looks like:
QB - Will Grier, WVU - $10,400
RB - Travis Etienne, Clem - $8,800
RB - Stevie Scott, IU - $4,900
WR - Felton Davis III, MSU - $5,600
WR - Bennett Skowronek, NW - $4,000
WR - Scotty Washington, Wake - $3,000
Flex - Martell Pettaway, WVU - $3,500
S-Flex - Dwayne Haskins, OSU - $9,800
FanDuel includes UCF and SMU - which is great. You can’t go wrong with McKenzie Milton at QB. They also include Kentucky / A&M and Wildcats RB Benny Snell is always a solid option. That Kentucky defense is mean so I’m not so interested in Trayveon Williams or Kellen Mond for the Aggies. Also, Mizzou/South Carolina (FD likes the SEC) is included and you could throw in a QB Drew Lock along with either Emanuel Hall or Albert O. and be just fine. Even Johnathan Johnson makes an appearance in our Tourney lineup. South Carolina is getting a first career start from Michael Scarnecchia and at a really cheap $6,000, he could be a solid GPP play. That’s not confirmed 100% so check up on that before the game starts...
FanDuel: Example Cash Lineup
QB - McKenzie Milton, UCF - $10,300
RB - Travis Etienne, Clem - $9,900
RB - Stevie Scott, Ind - $7,600
WR - Shi Smith, SoCar - $6,900
WR - K.J. Hill, OSU - $7,900
WR - Albert Okwuebunam, Mizz - $7,500
S-Flex - Drew Lock, Mizz - $9,900
FanDuel: Example GPP Lineup
QB - Will Grier, WVU - $10,500
RB - Mike Weber, OSU - $7,700
RB - Adrian Killins Jr., UCF - $9,600
WR - Marcus Simms, WVU - $9,000
WR - Parris Campbell, OSU - $9,100
WR - Johnathan Johnson, Mizz - $8,100
S-Flex - Michael Scarnecchia, SoCar - $6,000
If Jake Bentley gets the call for South Carolina, switch him out of S-Flex for Trevor Lawrence (who others will be scared away from with the injury) and swap out Killins Jr. for Leddie Brown at West Virginia.
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