We are back at for week three college football DFS.  Man, what a strange start to the season it has been. Some big-time players have disappointed in Bryce Love and Khalil Tate and others are really starting to make a name for themselves.  Keep in mind that when building your lineups, you really want to balance risk (which there is plenty of) with reward (also, plenty to be had) as much as humanly possible. We went for it last week and cashed big-time in the main slate.  The night slate was not so kind as we went too risky at quarterback and Ty Storey ended any hope quickly. Lesson learned. It does not change the fact that we will build around the big boys and try to find the best value to pair them with for success.  We are also doing everything we can to get a two-quarterback lineup in the Super-Flex spot. We’ve found that this provides the best chance to win, especially if you can hit on a lower-priced quarterback to provide a nice return.

FEATURED

This slate features ten (10) games:

Oklahoma at Iowa State
Florida State at Syracuse
Hawai’i at Army
Kent State at Penn State
Georgia Tech at Pittsburgh
Vanderbilt at Notre Dame
LSU at Auburn
Boise State at Oklahoma State
BYU at Wisconsin
SMU at Michigan

You’ll notice us staying away from some of the games that figure to be a bit more defensive-minded (Auburn/LSU; Vanderbilt/ND) and ignoring some road teams in tough situations (Kent State; BYU, SMU).

QB Trace McSorley

PSU

Kent St

$9,900

Risk: Low

Upside: Very High

This Penn State offense got going last week against Pittsburgh and it’s scary to think what they will do to the Golden Flashes. We have Kent State ranked 101st on the defensive side of the ball and the Lions, led by their signal-caller McSorley should push 50+ points this week. A wise investment.


 

QB Eric Dungey

Syr

FSU

$9,300

Risk: Medium

Upside: Very High

Syracuse has no problems scoring points as we’ve seen through two weeks (117 points scored) and even though the resistance from the schedule has not been the quality (?) of Florida State - they will get theirs. This total in Vegas is 68 and should be a back-and-forth affair.  Speaking of that Seminoles defense, they didn’t look great against Virginia Tech in week on and allowed 26 to Samford. So...

 

QB Deondre Francois

FSU

@Syr

$8,700

Risk: High

Upside: High

Assuming the above write-up comes true, it’s time for Francois to display his skills in a big way.  He had a good game fantasy-wise in week two against Samford, throwing for 320 yards and three touchdowns.  It can be argued that the Orange defense is about on par with that of Samford. Seriously. His price is where it should be. We like him.

 

QB Kenny Pickett

PITT

GATech

$6,400

Risk: High

Upside: High

A tournament play here with Pickett, who struggled against a hungry Penn State defense a week ago.  You can’t fault him for that. It was enough to depress his price against a Georgia Tech defense who was picked apart by South Florida a week ago. He can do it with his arm and legs - which we always lean towards the dual-threats when possible.  High risk, high reward play.

 

RB Jonathan Taylor

Wisc

BYU

$9,700

Risk: Very Low

Upside: Very High

If Wisconsin is playing and a part of the main slate on DraftKings, you can expect to see him here.  He’s just that good. He fueled a big week for us last week with his 253 yards and three scores against New Mexico last week.  BYU will challenge the Badgers NFL-quality offensive line more so than the previous two opponents, but this is a sure-fire low risk play in Taylor - the Heisman front-runner in my book.

 

RB Miles Sanders

PSU

Kent St

$8,300

Risk: Low

Upside: Very High

As mentioned in the McSorley write-up, Sanders has clearly established himself as the first option in the running game - taking over for the great Saquon Barkley. He has 35 carries through two weeks and has managed just under six yards per carry and scored twice.  Appalachian State in week one was a tough opponent and Kent State won’t offer nearly the resistance. Expect two scores before giving way to his backups (who you’ll hear more about in a bit).

 

RB Justice Hill

OKSt

Boise

$7,800

Risk: Medium

Upside: High

We haven’t seen the best from Hill yet.  Sure, Boise is going to put up a fight in Stillwater on Saturday, but that just means the high-powered offense will lean on their best player that much more.  He’s taken 19 carries for 154 yards and three scores on the ground so far. Where he separates himself a bit from the pack is in that passing game, where he’s yet to be needed (2 catches).  This week, expect QB Taylor Cornelius to look Hill’s way a bit more and 4-5 catches are in the cards for sure. Solid price for a top-tier option.

 

RB Chris Evans

Mich

SMU

$5,800

Risk: High

Upside: High

This is a Nick Dunning special. He knows his Wolverines and fully expects to see Evans featured predominantly in the offense this week.  Sure, Karan Higdon is the lead back - and he’s priced that way ($8,600). We’ll go with the cheaper option, who has found paydirt twice in just 12 carries so far this year.  Evans is a steal at this price and we’ll go with a 60+ yard outburst for a score to make this return on investment.

 

RB Dontae Strickland

Syr

FSU

$5,200

Risk: High

Upside: High

We normally don’t love timeshares in the backfield when playing DFS.  Too many opportunities for the “other guy” to take the lead. However, when the volume is as it is in Syracuse - we’ll take our chances.  In this case, that “other” guy is Moe Neal and he’ll get his. However, this year, Strickland is the one finding the end zone (four times to Neal’s two) and since he’s $800 cheaper, we’ll go with this end of the share.  No problem if you went with Neal here too. Heck, throw them both in a lineup and hope the Orange post 85 plays and 50+ points on the struggling ‘Noles.

 

RB Ricky Slade

PSU

Kent St

$3,400

Risk: Very High

Upside: Very High

Here is Sanders’ backup.  The true freshman and top recruit is just $3,400 and has potential to breakout in a BIG way against the Golden Flashes.  If the game script goes as we expect, Slade has just ten carries for 52 yards and a score thus far. Though, he’s outperformed fellow backup, Senior Mark Allen (13-37, just 2.8 YPC). He should get his touches and it really just takes one good one to return on this price point.

 

RB Marcelias Sutton

OU

@Iowa St

$4,000

Risk: High

Upside: Very High

Rodney Anderson’s season-ending injury opens the door for some talented backs in the Sooners backfield.  The problem with that statement is its plural nature and the fact that we don’t know who assumes the “lead” role.  If anybody does. We’re just going on a hunch, pure talent and price point here. The other option here is Trey Sermon - who we like a lot too - but is priced at $7,300.  We’ll take the savings and allow flexibility to load up elsewhere. We aren’t mad at a lineup that features Sermon.

 

WR John Ursua

Hawaii

@Army

$8,100

Risk: Low

Upside: Huge

This Hawai’i run-and-shoot offense is just plain fun to watch. They travel halfway across the world for this one and while that isn’t ideal, the Warriors are poised to continue their offensive onslaught.  Thus far, Ursua has 26 catches for 423 yards and five touchdowns thus far. Sure, the price is high and we also recommend throwing his counter-parts Cedric Byrd and/or JoJo Ward in a lineup or two as well.  Many think this the first true test for Hawaii and that the offense will come back to earth - we’re betting against that.

 

WR Marquise Brown

OU

@Iowa St

$7,600

Risk: Low

Upside: Very High

One of the keys to college football DFS is building around “sure things”.  We have found there are very few of those around the game today - especially at the receiver position. Brown is one of those guys that just doesn’t worry you on a weekly basis.  The quarterback question has been answered by Kyler Murray and this offense is clicking on all cylinders. There will be plenty to go around between Brown and CeeDee Lamb. Lamb is a solid option at $6,700 too.

 

WR Tamorrion Terry

FSU

@Syr

$4,000

Risk: Medium

Upside: Very High

Going back to Florida State here. This game being in a dome certainly contributes to its offensive intrigue. Terry is a freshman and a bit under the radar with just four catches - but of those four - two have gone for touchdowns.  Playing a defense that is prone to giving up big plays, we’re looking long and hard at Terry, who is just $4k and has as big an upside as anybody in the slate at the position. Just know - if that one big one doesn't come - disappointment looms.

 

WR Deshaunte Jones

Iowa St

OU

$4,500

Risk: High

Upside: Very High

Iowa State won’t go down without a fight against the Sooners.  We’ve seen that before. With some question marks at who starts under center, there is a bit of pause to invest in this passing game.  The reality is that the Cyclones are taking to the air to keep pace in this one. Don’t let that one catch for 31 yards worry you too much.  Hakeem Butler will be shadowed and it will free up Jones to make a big play or two.

 

WR Tyron Johnson

OKSt

Boise

$5,400

Risk: High

Upside: High

Johnson’s price is suppressed a bit by a slightly less-than inspiring early line with seven catches for 150 yards and no touchdowns.  That changes this week as the Cowboys play a big one against Boise in Stillwater. Again, a nice price for a big, breakout performer waiting to happen.  Risky for sure, but if you want to win a tournament, you need lower owned players and both Jones and Johnson fit that bill and will allow you to load up at the QB and RB positions in your lineups.

 

WR A.J. Richardson

Boise

@OKSt

$6,300

Risk: Low

Upside: High

The Cowboys aren’t going to be the only one scoring in this one. The Broncos will look to build upon their 56- and 62-point performances thus far.  In each game, Richardson nabbed three balls and has 130 yards and a score. Going into the season, he was expected to be a top option for Brett Rypien and while we haven’t seen that 6+ catch game - it may be coming this week and the price is right for that type of risk.

 

Example Lineup:

QB: Eric Dungey - $9,300

RB: Chris Evans - $5,800

RB: Dontae Strickland - $5,200

WR: Marquise Brown - $7,600

WR: Deshaunte Jones - $4,500

WR: Tamorrion Terry - $4,000

Flex: JoJo Ward - $4,900 - big upside in this offense, though a bit risky with so many other options and a decent defense going up against them.  To get both ends of the QB battle in Syracuse, that is the give-and-take.

S-Flex: Deondre Francois - $8,700

 

NIGHT SLATE

The night slate features some big-time matchups and plenty of scoring opportunities.  Note: The Georgia vs. Middle Tennessee State game was originally a part of this slate but was moved up to avoid Hurricane implications.  They no longer count for this slate. They show up in red, so don’t choose any of them. Nick Dunning was heartbroken he couldn’t build around a cheap Ty Lee.  That’s just the way it goes…

The games we DO have are as follows:

Alabama at Ole Miss

Oregon State at Nevada

UL-Lafayette at Mississippi State

Missouri at Purdue

USC at Texas

Ohio State vs. TCU (Dallas, TX)

We usually start our research by identifying the teams that we’d like to pick on and stack up.  This Alabama / Ole Miss game should push 75 points, but we are a bit more leery (for obvious reasons) to jump on too many Rebels against the Crimson Tide defense. QB Tua Tagovailoa and WR Jerry Jeudy are the top targets here. Rebel WR A.J. Brown should get loose once of twice in this one, but his price is probably not worth the risk involved.  The running backs and other receivers seem to cut into each other’s production a bit. Oregon State and Nevada could be just as “pointsy” and we’d take players from either side. This Nevada spread offense had a clunker last week against a good Vanderbilt defense on the road, but we are going back to the combination of QB Ty Gangi and WR McLane Mannix against a brutal Oregon State defense.  You can’t go wrong with some of these bigger names on Mississippi State, including QB Nick Fitzgerald and newly minted starting RB Kylin Hill.  We aren’t banking on any solid performances (even for the reduced price) from the Rajun’ Cajuns.  Don’t trust any of these Mississippi State receivers. QB Drew Lock looks to avenge a poor performance a year ago against the Boilermakers and his top receiving option is WR Emanual Hall is in play as well. Expect the Boilers to try to shut him down and that frees up another solid option in WR Johnathan Johnson.  The Tigers should move it against Purdue.  The Missouri backs tend to split carries and are a bit risky, but their prices reflect that risk so we’d be okay with a dart throw at either RB Damarea Crockett or RB Larry Rountree III.  This Purdue offense just HAS to get going at some point.  Whoever is throwing it will be looking freshman WR Rondale Moore’s way again this week after a clunker a week ago.  He dominated in their first game against Northwestern.  Jump on. USC and Texas is a game to avoid. You can’t go wrong with either quarterback in the big one in Big D.  QB Dwayne Haskins and QB Shawn Robinson are going to have plenty of opportunities - though, each opposing defense at least has a pulse (we think). The Ohio State receiving corps spreads it out so much that there is a bunch of assumed risk there and TCU is the same way.  You can go with either Buckeye RB J.K. Dobbins and/or RB Mike Weber.  Both could perform and/or disappoint.