Here we are with another edition of the DFS MLB Stacks article. We’ve been providing you with stacking options all baseball season long and if there is one thing we’ve learned it is that stacking on the right team increases the chances of success, no matter the type of contest you are playing in. So, we’ll continue to look at some metrics to help identify the offenses that everything is aligning for a breakout performance and then find the right players within that lineup to target.  Instead of just throwing out three teams that I expect to break out, I’m going to look at the areas we should be focusing on and then find the best option from that particular area.

BALLPARK / WEATHER

Since this area will involve two teams, this will be our game stack recommendation. I think the Rockies / D-Backs game in Arizona fits the bill here. It’s going to be warm (hot, really) at game time and we know how Chase Field fosters solid offensive performances. It’s expected to be 105 degrees (yes, that’s right) at game time. Very little humidity (16%) and a slight breeze in that shouldn’t matter too much.

Top targets: OF Charlie Blackmon (COL); 3B Nolan Arenado (COL); C Chris Iannetta (ARI); 1B Paul Goldschmidt (ARI); 3B Jake Lamb (ARI)

Value plays: SS Trevor Story (COL); OF Gerardo Parra (COL); SS Ketel Marte (ARI); 2B Brandon Drury (ARI)

VEGAS ODDS

As we know, Vegas knows a thing or two about what to expect on a given evening around baseball. If they didn’t, some would be making a whole lot more money and the city wouldn’t be adding two major professional sports franchises. I digress.  Our Vegas Odds tool provides us with a glimpse of “implied run totals” and whenever there is a team with an IRT of over a full half run higher than the runner-up, we should take notice. That team tonight is the Texas Rangers. I guess that should be no surprise, considering a number of factors including the Rangers’ offense itself, while inconsistent at times, ranks third in wRC+ over the last two weeks at 129 - behind only the world-beating Indians and Athletics (of all teams). Marco Gonzales gets the spot start for the M’s after his demotion to the bullpen is another reason to suspect a 10+ run output from Texas tonight.

Top targets: SS Elvis Andrus; C Robinson Chirinos (TEX); 1B Mike Napoli; OF Shin-Soo Choo; OF Carlos Gomez

OPPOSING STARTING PITCHER

This is the section that we pick on the weakest link a bit. You see, simply put, you can identify a team that could “go off” based solely on the incompetence of their opponent taking the mound against them. Matt Boyd vs. Cleveland is too easy and that has to end sometime, right? So, how about the Chicago Cubs against the Mets’ Robert Gsellman? Sold. Gsellman has righted the ship a bit over his last few outings, but he still sports an ugly 5.44 ERA and 1.57 WHIP this season over 21 games. The Cubs lineup is in for tonight and we see a few buying opportunities at the top of the order in this one.

Top targets: 2B Ben Zobrist; 3B Kris Bryant; 1B Anthony Rizzo and C Willson Contreras are batting 1-4 in this order. If the damage is going to be done against Gsellman, these are the guys most likely going to be performing.

So, there you go. The game stacks is in the desert for the Diamondbacks/Rockies with optimal weather and ballpark conditions. Then, you can go with a Rangers stack thanks to our bookmakers in Vegas and/or take a look at the Cubs beating up on Robert Gsellman tonight.  Good luck tonight in all of your contests!