Hector Olivera, 3B, Atlanta Braves

Age: 30

Height: 6-foot-2

Weight: 220 lbs.

Bats: Right

Throws: Right

2015 Stats: 87 PA, .253/.310/.405, 2 HR, 11 RBIs

The Los Angeles Dodgers pull no punches when it comes to throwing money around. The team had a $273,440,830 million dollar payroll last season, which was good for highest in the league.  About a week before Opening Day last year, Los Angeles decided to shell out $62.5 million over six years, though $28 million of that was a signing bonus. Prior to inking the deal, the Dodgers knew that Olivera was dealing with a small UCL tear that would require Tommy John surgery if it got any worse. It was a risk Los Angeles was willing to take until something better came along.

Naturally, something better came along. The Dodgers were in the midst of a pennant race last year and were looking for starting pitching depth, so they traded for Alex Wood (and others) and sent Olivera to Atlanta. Luckily for Atlanta, the Dodgers were on the hook for Olivera’s signing bonus, meaning they only had to pay him roughly $22 million for the remainder of the contract. The Braves are currently in full rebuild mode, but Olivera was coveted long before he signed with the Dodgers, so ultimately Atlanta received a player that they wanted at a reasonable discount.

Let’s talk about Olivera the player. As with most Cuban players, the video evidence and scouting reports are quite limited. In Cuba, the regular season pales in comparison to the major leagues, so while Olivera has less mileage on his body, he is also not accustomed to a 162-game grind. Over 11 seasons in foreign leagues (including the Puerto Rican Winter League in 2015), Olivera owns a triple slash of .323/.407/.505 with 96 home runs, 433 home runs, and a stellar walk-to-strikeout ratio of 367-to-251. His numbers aren’t eye-popping, but they’re also not to be taken lightly.

With limited information, we can gather that Olivera is a polished professional hitter that exhibits patience in the batter’s box and the ability to go deep or steal a bag on any given day. While a home run or stolen base is always nice, the important part of Olivera’s game lies in his approach at the plate. Any hitter that can walk over 100 times more than he strikes out over a rather large sample size is a player that should be given credence. Obviously, playing in Cuba isn’t like playing in the United States, but at the end of the day, it’s still the same game. Olivera clearly has a great eye and that shouldn’t diminish too much in the major leagues.

The elephant in the room (in the former) surrounding Olivera is his sore elbow. The Dodgers and Braves both knew that he was damaged goods, but proceeded to sign him—in the former—and trade for him—in the latter. The good news here is that if Olivera needs Tommy John surgery, his recovery time will be half the amount of a pitcher. The bad news is that ultimately Olivera could require Tommy John surgery.

For fantasy owners, Tommy John surgery is a risk that we take daily. Hell, if you held on to Masahiro Tanaka, you look relatively smart even though a betting man would have said, “he’s going under the knife!” Instead, Tanaka missed some time and his UCL has held up relatively well. With Olivera, the risk for a complete UCL is real, but it’s also one worth taking.

Let’s face it, Olivera’s stock is down even though the majority fantasy players didn’t know of him this time last year. With that said, it doesn’t mean he isn’t valuable. His plate discipline is exciting and that is the single most reason to invest in him this season. In mixed leagues he is a late-round pick, though the deeper the league, the more value he has. In NL-Only leagues, Olivera should be viewed as a starter at the hot corner. The position thins out quickly and he could easily be a $10-12 player in auction leagues.

In dynasty leagues, things get even trickier. Olivera has the appeal of the unknown. Much like Jung Ho Kang last season or Jose Abreu the year before, the hype is real, but the risk was credible. While Olivera is unlikely to put up numbers like either of the aforementioned players, he could surprise and that would make him a monster bargain. The chance that he becomes a solid major leaguer is just as strong as the possibility that he flops and that makes him a true wild card. The one element to fall back on is that Olivera has a full-time job to start the season. While certainly a liability, he couldn’t ask for a better situation to excel in 2016.