If you have made it to this point, congratulations! In the vast majority of fantasy leagues, Week 16 is the end of the road. If your league uses Week 17 to decide the final head-to-head matchup, I’d recommend a change next year. The full season grind shouldn’t be decided when starters are being rested and backups see the bulk of the workload. So, let’s get to it and good luck!
Quarterback
On Monday night, we watched a porous Saints defense get ripped about by Matthew Stafford and that has been the story all season long. So for Week 16, Blake Bortles should be at the top of the must-start list. In his second season, Bortles has definitely come into his own. Assuming everything goes as planned, he will reach 4,000 yards on the season this week and he has already thrown for 31 touchdown passes. He is a franchise quarterback that has used 2015 to set the tone for the future. If you own Bortles, use him with confidence this week. I prefer him to both Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady—that’s how great this matchup is.
With all due respect to Cam Newton (who you should start this week), there is no hotter quarterback in the league than Russell Wilson. On paper, this isn’t the greatest matchup, but with the way Wilson and the Seahawks are playing, that matters not. If you want gaudy numbers, look no further than Wilson’s last five games. He’s thrown for 19 touchdowns with no interceptions and a passer rating of 128.3 or higher. This game will be played in Seattle and St. Louis will be outmatched and outclassed. Expect more of the same from Wilson and start him with the utmost fortitude.
The Steelers are on a roll right now and the Ravens have been a disaster this season and that makes Big Ben Roethlisberger a fantasy god this week. Pittsburgh runs a pass-heavy offense with the best wideout in the NFL (Antonio Brown) and two legit studs (Martavis Bryant and Markus Wheaton). This is exactly the kind of matchup you dream of during a championship match.
Keep Matt Ryan on your bench this week, as he’s been an underwhelming option all season long. He threw for just 224 yards and one interception against the Panthers just two weeks ago.
Strong Matchups
Blake Bortles vs. New Orleans (Ranked 32nd against opposing QBs)
Alex Smith vs. Cleveland (Ranked 30th against opposing QBs)
Ben Roethlisberger vs. Baltimore (Ranked 28th against opposing QBs)
Weak Matchups
AJ McCarron vs. Denver (Ranked 1st against opposing QBs)
Matt Ryan vs. Carolina (Ranked 4th against opposing QBs)
Ryan Fitzpatrick vs. New England (Ranked 6th against opposing QBs)
Running Back
Though he’s had just two games over 100 yards, Latavius Murray is in a prime spot to succeed on Thursday night against the Chargers. San Diego has struggled against the run all season long, including a Week 7 matchup against the Raiders where Murray carried the ball 15 times for 85 yards and a touchdown. Murray came into the season as a big-time sleeper pick, but has been somewhat of a disappointment. With that said, he is in a great spot to validate himself to fantasy owners in a championship game.
The Patriots completely abandoned the run in their last meeting against the Jets as LeGarrette Blount received just three carries for -3 yards. It’s anyone’s guess as to what player will receive the bulk of the carries for New England, but no matter who it is, just avoid the situation completely.
This has been the year of frustrating first-round picks, but none have been more irritating than “Fat” Eddie Lacy. Arizona has a great defense and is especially strong against the run. It’d be a huge gamble to use Lacy this week, but depending on the makeup of your team, you may not have a choice.
Strong Matchups
Latavius Murray vs. San Diego (Ranked 28th against opposing RBs)
Karlos Williams vs. Dallas (Ranked 27th against opposing RBs)
Doug Martin vs. Chicago (Ranked 25th against opposing RBs)
Weak Matchups
New England RBs vs. New York Jets (Ranked 3rd against opposing RBs)
Eddie Lacy vs. Arizona (Ranked 6th against opposing RBs)
Wide Receiver
The Ravens are the worst in the league against the pass and they are facing the Pittsburgh freight train. Things could get ugly early and that makes Antonio Brown, Martavis Bryant, and Markus Wheaton all fantastic options this week.
Following a trend here, DeSean Jackson is another top play this week. The Eagles are brutal against the pass and the Redskins are in rhythm right now. Jackson is coming off a six-catch, 153-yard, one-touchdown performance against the Bills and will be looking for blood against his former team. He’s been up-and-down this season, but it’s an unavoidable matchup that needs to be taken advantage of.
A.J. Green is not 100 percent and faces off against the Broncos in a road matchup that has serious playoff seeding implications. It’s hard to sit a player of Green’s caliber, but there are so many better matchups this week that strong consideration needs to be given.
The Colts do a terrible job defending the pass and a possession receiver like Jarvis Landry should rack up a ton of points in PPR leagues. He is right on the borderline of being a top-10 option this week.
Strong Matchups
Antonio Brown/Martavis Bryant/Markus Wheaton vs. Baltimore (Ranked 32nd against opposing WRs)
DeSean Jackson vs. Philadelphia (Ranked 31st against opposing WRs)
Jarvis Landry vs. Indianapolis (Ranked 30th against opposing WRs)
Weak Matchups
A.J. Green vs. Denver (Ranked 1st against opposing WRs)
Sammy Watkins vs. Dallas (Ranked 6th against opposing WRs)
Tight End
It’s important to point out that matchups matter, but some players are matchup proof at every position and that is where Jordan Reed is at this week. Though the Eagles have been terrible against the pass this season, they ranked second against opposing tight ends. Reed has been on fire as of late, as he’s gobbled up plenty of receptions and is Kirk Cousins’ main red zone target. He should feast on Philadelphia.
Julius Thomas continued his resurgence last week with six receptions for 79 yards and gets the dreaded Saints this week. The Jaguars will be doing plenty of passing and that should benefit Thomas assuming that the Allen Brothers (Allen Robinson and Allen Hurns) don’t do all of the damage themselves.
Strong Matchups
Julius Thomas vs. New Orleans (Ranked 32nd against opposing TEs)
Antonio Gates vs. Oakland (Ranked 31st against opposing TEs)
Weak Matchups
Gary Barnidge vs. Kansas City (Ranked 1st against opposing TEs)
Austin Seferian-Jenkins vs. Chicago (Ranked 6th against opposing TEs)
This concludes a look at Week 16 matchups and the edge that you need to win a championship. Now, in the words of Kevin McAllister in the greatest Christmas movie of all-time, Home Alone, “This is it, don’t get scared now.”