There was a flurry of activity throughout the NFL this offseason. There were a number of free agent signings, veteran releases, suspensions and even trades that landed some key fantasy players in new locations. So, let’s take a few minutes to reacquaint ourselves with these players in their brand new homes. 

 

DeMarco Murray, RB, Philadelphia Eagles

There is little doubt that DeMarco Murray propelled thousands of fantasy owners to a Championship in 2014. Though fantasy owners are still indebted to Murray for his strong campaign last season, the Cowboys didn’t seem to feel the same way as they reportedly offered him just $5 million per year to stick around. Either Dallas knew something we don’t or they never had any intention of paying top dollar for him to begin with; the latter seems like a more logical bet. We will find out soon enough whether Dallas was correct in their assessment, but for fantasy owners, Murray is now an Eagle and it is time to look ahead to the 2015 season.

By signing with Philadelphia, Murray is moving from one high-powered offense to another and that means his fantasy value will remain strong. Murray was an absolute freak in 2014, rushing the ball a whopping 392 times for 1,845 yards and 13 touchdowns. He also set a career high with 57 receptions for 416, but never found the end zone through the air. Always labeled with an injury risk tag, Murray did suffer a broken hand last year, but didn’t miss a game.

Dallas boasted the best overall offensive line last season and that certainly contributed to Murray’s excellent season. The good news for Murray—and fantasy owners—is that he will line up behind a Philadelphia offensive line that ranked first in run blocking and second overall. The Eagles released guards Todd Herremans and Evan Mathis during the offseason, but Lane Johnson and Jason Peters are still around to anchor both tackle positions. Because of that, Murray should be protected well and have plenty of room to run to the outside.

Aside from the offensive line, there are two other factors at play when it comes to Murray’s projected production in 2015.  While Tony Romo has his flaws, he has managed to stay healthy throughout his career and in turn be a solid fantasy quarterback. The Eagles are handing the reigns to Sam Bradford after acquiring the sixth year pro in a trade for Nick Foles. Murray was certainly comfortable in Dallas and you would have to assume that there would be a comfort factor involved with Bradford.

It is anyone’s guess as to how Bradford will fair on a much better offense than any that he played with in St. Louis. With a rock solid RB1 in Murray and a couple of solid wide receivers, Bradford shouldn’t have much issue posting the best numbers of his career. As for Murray, it seems logical that he would still be able to catch 40 or so passes on dump offs, but there is one other glaring issue at play in the backfield and that brings us to…

 

Ryan Mathews, RB, Philadelphia Eagles

Finally, Ryan Mathews isn’t a feature back and that is excellent news for those of you in deeper leagues. As a player that has disappointed fantasy owners mainly because of injury, Mathews is going to see his workload decrease dramatically. In turn, his production should increase; think addition by subtraction. The Philadelphia Inquirer reported last month that Mathews would likely receive between 100-130 carries this season. Mathews’ career high for carries was 225 in 2013, so the sharp decline should keep him fresh.

If Murray were to go down with an extended injury, Mathews would slide right into the starting lineup. At that point, you will need to fervently pray that Mathews will stay healthy. Even without an injury, do not be surprised if Mathews steals some goal line touches from DeMarco Murray this season. Case in point, Mathews will be one of the best handcuffs in the league and he should not be forgotten on draft day regardless of his checkered injury history.

 

LeSean McCoy, RB, Buffalo Bills

The Bills have a new coach, continuing questions at quarterback, and most importantly, a new go-to guy in their backfield. With Rex Ryan at the helm, we are going to see plenty of smash mouth running schemes. The quarterback situation in Buffalo is a mess. During OTAs this summer, Matt Cassell has reminded us why he should have been a career backup. The other options for the Bills are E.J. Manuel—bust city, and former Ravens backup Tyrod Taylor; just awful, awful options. The Bills are going to have to rely on Shady McCoy in a big way this season and he appears to be ready to take on a monster role in Buffalo’s offense.

Last season, there were two glaring factors that really reduced McCoy’s fantasy value: lack of touchdowns and a reduction of receptions. After averaging 58 receptions between 2010-2013, McCoy hauled in just 28 passes last season. In PPR leagues, that represents a drastic drop in production.

With three below average options at quarterback, it would be foolish to think that Buffalo will have a legitimate passing game. McCoy is going to see a ridiculous amount of carries and plenty of dump offs out of the backfield. The Bills don’t have a dynamic offensive line, but that really won’t matter. The pure quantity of touches will allow McCoy to lead the NFL in rushing yards and get back to double-digit touchdowns.  A strong argument can be made for McCoy to be the first overall pick this season.

 

Darren McFadden, RB, Dallas Cowboys

No player has been the poster boy for injured NFL players over the last several years quite like Darren McFadden. With all of the talent in the world, he’s played in 16 games just once and rushed for over 1,000 yards a single time. At age 27, McFadden isn’t getting any younger, but he is in a position to have a solid season or two before his time runs out.

First, let’s look at the positives and why McFadden could very well post the best numbers of his career. He is moving from one of the perennial worst teams in the league in Oakland to one of the better teams in Dallas. Behind a dynamic offensive line, McFadden could see enough daylight to be a clear RB1. We saw throughout DeMarco Murray’s time in Dallas that he hauled in his fair share of receptions. The same could be true for McFadden if he can stay on the field.

Now, here are the glaring negatives. Obviously, McFadden has a history of injuries—turf toe, sprained shoulders, multiple hamstring pulls, and a pair of ankle sprains. Things are not off to a rousing start this year as McFadden already pulled his hamstring during OTAs. On top of seemingly constant injuries, McFadden’s production has dipped while on the field. Over the 2010 and 2011 seasons, McFadden averaged 5.3 yards per carry.  Since that time, he’s averaged just 3.3 yards per carry. Running backs age faster than any position in the NFL, so to think that McFadden will revert to his glory days is just absurd.

McFadden should be viewed as a flyer this season and nothing more. Sure, he’s behind a great offensive line in Dallas, but he is a damaged player that cannot be trusted. If you head into the season with McFadden as your RB1, you may as well light your league fee on fire.

 

Jimmy Graham, TE, Seattle Seahawks

The Seahawks’ finally found a big time passing threat when they traded for Jimmy Graham this past March. Along with Rob Gronkowski, Graham has been one of the top two tight ends in the NFL over the last five years. He plays like a wide receiver with the size of a tight end. It is truly a perfect combination.

In Seattle, he will be Russell Wilson’s top option through the air. Wilson’s game isn’t quite like Drew Brees, but that hardly matters. Marshawn Lynch will still be “beast-moding” and defenses will have to continue to respect that. Expect more of the same from Graham in his new home. Grabbing a tight end in the first two rounds is not something I would recommend, but with Graham, you know the numbers will be there.

 

Torrey Smith, WR, San Francisco 49ers

A lot of unwarranted criticism has been given to Joe Flacco over the years, but the fact of the matter is that he is a very solid NFL quarterback. For Torrey Smith, he is going to wish he still had Flacco throwing the ball to him instead of his quarterback, Colin Kaepernick. Over his four-year career, Smith has netted over 1,000 receiving yards just once, but he’s made up for it with strong touchdown numbers.

The 49ers run a different style of offense that plays to Kaepernick’s strengths. He will use his legs, whereas Joe Flacco was a pure pocket presence. Kaepernick’s scrambling ways and lack of accuracy combined with Smith’s knack for dropping passes are not going to benefit Torrey Smith in any way.  It wouldn’t be surprising if Smith had the worst season of his career. I would steer clear of Smith this season and let another owner fall on that sword.

 

Andre Johnson, WR, Indianapolis Colts

Imagine being forced to eat Hamburger Helper everyday for a year. Now think about how you’d feel if at the end of those 365 days if you found out you’d be eating Surf ‘n Turf for the next six months. This is what Andre Johnson is experiencing now that he has Andrew Luck as his quarterback.

At age 34, the majority of players have either taken on a secondary role or they’re out of the league. For Andre Johnson, he could very well see a career resurrection. The Texans chose to play Johnson in a decreased role last year and the 13-year veteran posted the worst numbers in a non-injury season of his career. It may have been a mediocre season by Johnson’s standards, but he still managed to haul in 85 passes for 936 yards and three touchdowns.

In Indianapolis, Johnson figures to be a very intricate part of the Colts’ dynamic offense. Johnson’s career is winding down, but he still has enough gas in the tank to have one more monster year. In Houston, Johnson went over 1,500 yards on three separate occasions. It is somewhat shocking to know that Johnson has never found the end zone more than nine times in a single season. That will change this year. Johnson is going to be a strong WR2 that puts up WR1 numbers. Make sure you are along for that ride.

 

Jeremy Maclin, WR, Kansas City Chiefs

Jeremy Maclin has steadily progressed as a solid NFL wideout throughout his five-year career. From a role-player during his early days in Philadelphia to a featured role last year, Maclin has averaged 952 yards per season while grabbing 36 touchdowns. He will move from a gun-slinging type offense with the Eagles to a more conservative team in Kansas City. Sadly, this is not a positive development.

Alex Smith is a better real-life quarterback than a fantasy quarterback. He’s smart with the ball and rarely makes bad decisions; he hasn’t thrown more than seven interceptions over the last four seasons. The problem with Smith is that he doesn’t throw a deep ball. The Chiefs’ attempted just 493 passes last season and their offense is centered on Jamaal Charles, so getting Maclin involved like he was in Philadelphia is going to be a stretch.

While Maclin should still be a strong WR3, his yardage and touchdown totals are almost guaranteed to take a significant hit. Do not overdraft him based on last year’s numbers. Outside of workhorse Jamaal Charles, the Chiefs are not an attractive team from a fantasy perspective. A 900-yard season with six touchdowns sounds about right for Maclin.

 

Brandon Marshall, WR, New York Jets

When you get to draft day, there are positions that you take chances and times that you play things very safe. With Brandon Marshall, it really doesn’t get much more secure. If you toss out Marshall’s injury-riddled season in 2014, he went seven consecutive years with over 1,000 yards receiving. In five of those seasons, he hauled in over 100 receptions. Remember when he caught 21 passes against the Colts in 2009? One thing to note about Marshall is that he never played with a true stud quarterback. That is not going to change this season, as Geno Smith will likely be under center to start the season.

It would be a stretch to think that Marshall will dig deep and post numbers like he did three years ago in Chicago when he notched 108 receptions, 1,508 yards, and 11 touchdowns. He is going to be the go-to though, and that counts for a lot. This will be the first time that Smith has played with a legitimate stud wide receiver and it can only help to elevate his game to the next level.

Draft Marshall with confidence, but don’t reach for him. He is a WR2 and a pick in the fourth or fifth round is completely justifiable. Marshall will surprise the doubters during his first season with the Jets.

 

Mike Wallace, WR, Minnesota Vikings

From one former head case to a current head case, it is now time to examine Mike Wallace and what he means for fantasy owners this year. The first thing to realize with Wallace is that the name is bigger than the actual production. It is easy to have mistaken Wallace as a WR2, but in reality he has been a serviceable WR3 the last couple of years. Since leaving Pittsburgh after the 2012 season, Wallace has yet to post a 1,000-yard season. On top of that, he will never post strong reception numbers, so that hurts his value in PPR leagues.

With a young quarterback at the helm in Teddy Bridgewater, Wallace could get easily frustrated if things aren’t going his way—he has a history with that type of behavior. On the flip side, Wallace and Bridgewater could click immediately and become the latter’s favorite target. It will be interesting to see how this plays out, but unfortunately we don’t have the luxury of seeing into the future.

Much like Wallace’s personality, he is a real boom or bust play each and every week. With Adrian Peterson back in the fold, defenses are going to have to show the Vikings’ offense plenty of respect. Because of that, Wallace is going to have a great first season with The Purple and Gold. In his first season with his new squad, he will hit 1,000 yards and haul in eight-to-ten touchdowns. Don’t sleep on Wallace; he will do very well in Minnesota.

 

Michael Crabtree, WR, Oakland Raiders

I will save the worst wideout for last. Crabtree is moving across The Bay from San Francisco to Oakland and things have only gotten worse for the veteran receiver. He has been overhyped his entire career and a torn ACL in 2013 only made his prospects worse. If you head into this season thinking that Crabtree will be a strong WR2 to compliment your Demariyus Thomas or Antonio Brown, think again. Let someone else suffer his poor performance this season.

 

Nick Foles, QB, St. Louis Rams

Sam Bradford, QB, Philadelphia Eagles

In baseball, we like to talk about a change of scenery. With Nick Foles and Sam Bradford, that is exactly what we are seeing. Foles moves from the boom offense in Philadelphia to less talent in St. Louis. Sam Bradford, on the other hand, is trying desperately to get past the injury-prone label.

Bradford needs to stay healthy this season, but naturally, that is not a given. In fact, if you take Bradford’s injury into account, it would be easy to say that he’ll be undergoing surgery after Week 4. Now, if he does manage to stay away from a surgeon during the fall and winter months, Bradford will have a strong offensive line, solid options at wide receiver, and of course, DeMarco Murray. This is a strong concoction for success and Bradford will make a fine backup on any team.

Foles is going to have a much harder path to repeat his limited success this upcoming season. The Rams aren’t in a position to compete this year and with a terrible offensive line and no big-time weapons, we may quickly forget the success that Foles showed in 2013. He is not going to be a QB1 in any fantasy format. Even if he were my backup this year, I would be somewhat skeptical.

Given the choice between the two—take Bradford.