Fantasy Baseball RPV Breakdown: DFS Starting Pitcher Analysis
Published: Jul 02, 2016
Remember when Drew Pomeranz was a great DFS value? Well, the winds of change have blown and as always in the daily game it’s all about what can you do for me today. It’s time to find some new arms that can be cost effective and return dividends. Tonight’s pitching slate has some land mines and diamonds in the rouh. But as you’ll see, value is just the starting point. Relative Position Value per Dollar (RPVPD) will narrow the field, but then it’s on to statistical analysis to zero in on our targets.
Here’s the RPVPV breakdown for tonight’s FanDuel starting pitcher slate:
Player | FPPG | Raw RPV | Salary | Pts per $ | RPV Per Dollar |
Chad Kuhl | 33 | 0.174 | $ 6,100 | $185 | 0.358 |
31.8 | 0.132 | $ 7,200 | $226 | 0.213 | |
42 | 0.495 | $ 9,900 | $236 | 0.181 | |
44.6 | 0.587 | $ 11,500 | $258 | 0.104 | |
26.6 | -0.053 | $ 7,100 | $267 | 0.073 | |
23.9 | -0.149 | $ 6,400 | $268 | 0.070 | |
23.3 | -0.171 | $ 6,300 | $270 | 0.061 | |
38.2 | 0.359 | $ 10,400 | $272 | 0.054 | |
29.6 | 0.053 | $ 8,500 | $287 | 0.002 | |
31.8 | 0.132 | $ 9,200 | $289 | -0.005 | |
21.3 | -0.242 | $ 6,500 | $305 | -0.060 | |
27 | -0.039 | $ 8,400 | $311 | -0.081 | |
23.3 | -0.171 | $ 7,700 | $330 | -0.148 | |
19.2 | -0.317 | $ 6,900 | $359 | -0.248 | |
18.1 | -0.356 | $ 6,700 | $370 | -0.286 | |
15.9 | -0.434 | $ 5,900 | $371 | -0.289 |
Chad Kuhl may offer the most value per dollar if you’re looking to blow your budget on big-time offense, but there’s plenty of downside here. Kuhl displayed below average strikeout potential at Triple-A (K/9 under 7) and his XFIP suggests he was getting a bit lucky with his 2.58 ERA, which was a tad unrealistic. If you want an outfield of Mike Trout, Bryce Harper and Mookie Betts tonight Kuhl is your man, but he’d have to somehow snag a win to contribute. He’ll face off against Rich Hill making his return from the DL. He, too, is cost efficient on paper, but in his rehab start he threw just three innings, so the chances of him reaching six tonight and/or controlling his own destiny is not terrific at that $9.9K price.
Jake Arrieta has put up back-to-back clunkers by his standards. Although the Mets offense has come to life recently, Arrieta still outranks them and is a strong cash game value despite his high $11.5K salary. If you want to go contrarian, Bartolo Colon will certainly be low on the ownership percentage scale facing Arrieta and the powerful Cubs lineup. The crafty veteran is capable of posting 20 points even without a win.
The best value of the night (and most sensible) is Seattle lefty James Paxton. His last outing versus the Cardinals wasn’t his best, but he still struck out seven in the effort. He was rolling prior to that averaging 36 points over those previous four starts. The Orioles are no cake walk, but he has an advantage being at home and his opponent Tyler Wilson is frankly a below average major league starter to put it kindly.
Joe Pisapia (@JoePisapia17) is the seven-time best-selling author of the Fantasy Black Book Series for baseball and football and hosts Fantasy Sports Tonight on Sirius/XM Fantasy Sports Radio.