Week 5 of the fantasy baseball season wraps up today but not before we take a look at some of the fantasy baseball top plays from Saturday which includes some players that may still be on your fantasy baseball waiver wire and may garner quite a few FAAB bids come Sunday night. We also woke up this morning to some tough fantasy baseball injury news as one of the early season fantasy baseball sleepers that was looking like a hit lands on the injured list.

 

 

Jesús Luzardo Lands on the Injured List

One of the players on many fantasy baseball sleeper lists this season was Marlins pitcher Jesús Luzardo who was acquired last season in the deal that sent Starling Marte to the A's. Luzardo struggled mightily for Miami last season but came into spring training and looked dominant. In fantasy baseball drafts we often saw Luzardo being taken in the later rounds of drafts, with an ADP of 263.4 but he was easily outproducing that draft spot, posting a 4.03 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP while striking out 41 over 29.0 innings. His 12.7 K/9 and 34.5% strikeout rate were among the league leaders and while he has a 4.03 ERA his xFIP was 3.07 and his xERA was 3.50 indicating he was actually pitching better than the ERA would indicate. 

Now for the injury, he is currently dealing with a left forearm strain which is never what you want to hear when it comes to a pitcher. Forearm strains are often the first indicator that a potentially more serious injury is down the line. The term “forearm tightness” often is a precursor to Tommy John surgery.  Luzardo had Tommy John surgery back in high school and by his own account he doesn't feel like this is going down a similar path. 

The Marlins will take precautions when it comes to bringing Luzardo back to ensure his arm is fully healthy before he steps back onto the mound.

Fantasy Baseball Buy-Low Window on Trevor Rogers is Closing

While a lot of focus today will be on the Jesús Luzardo news around the Miami Marlins there should also be some confidence building when it comes to second-year starter Trevor Rogers who had another strong outing on Saturday. Rogers has had a few tough starts this season which has caused his ERA to balloon to over 6.00 following his outing against the Arizona Diamondbacks but he has since bounced back over his last two starts to throw 10.1 innings of one-run baseball while striking out 11. Rogers ERA now sits at 4.45 but his xERA is 3.88 which indicates he is pitching a bit better than the actual ERA would make you think. The strikeout numbers have been down so far this year for Rogers after boasting a K/9 over 10.0 last season but on Saturday he struck out a season-high eight hitters. The window to buy-low on Trevor Rogers seems like it is quickly closing. 

Taylor Ward with Another Grand Performance 

There may be no bigger surprise this fantasy baseball season than that of Taylor Ward who went undrafted in nearly every fantasy baseball draft this season yet as we finish Week 5 of the fantasy baseball season Ward currently leads the league in walks, batting average, OBP, Slugging % and OPS.  He's hitting .384 with eight home runs, 23 runs and 22 RBI. Is this type of production sustainable? Unlikely, Ward has a .439 BABIP and a 30.8-percent HR/FB ratio. Both are due for regression. Ward does have a 19-percent walk and strikeout rate which are both great numbers and if he is able to keep up the walk rate he should be able to get good pitches to hit.

Bryce Harper Homers in Third Straight Game

Apparently, you don't need a fully intact UCL to hit home runs because Harper is dealing with a partial UCL tear and yet on Saturday he homered in his third straight game. On the season the defending NL MVP is hitting .305 with nine home runs, 29 runs, 27 RBI and six stolen bases. Over the past week, he is hitting .516 with four homers, 10 RBI and three stolen bases. Fantasy baseball managers are certainly breathing a sign of relief knowing that Harper is not only not missing time with his injury but hasn't seen any drop-off in his production here either. 

Sunday MLB Best Bets

 

Justin Verlander Over 18.5 Outs (+115 DraftKings Sportsbook)

I'm not sure if the oddsmakers have noticed but Justin Verlander is ALL THE WAY BACK. Through six starts this season he has a 1.55 ERA and a 0.64 WHIP. To hit the over on today's prop he needs to pitch at least 6.1 innings to get us to 19 outs. He has gotten at least 19 outs in four of his six starts this season, including three straight. Verlander is coming off eight innings of one-hit baseball against the Twins in which he only threw 89 pitches.  We are getting plus-odds here on the other which is too appealing to pass up. Today he does draw a tougher opponent in the Washington Nationals who do rank third in the league in batting average against RHP and 11th in wOBA but I am putting my trust into Verlander who is looking like an early American League Cy Young candidate. 

 

Tarik Skubal Over 6.5 Strikeouts (+105 DraftKings Sportsbook)

Going with another plus-odds prop here with Skubal over 6.5 strikeouts against the Orioles.  In the past, the O's have been a team that handles left-handed pitching well but that has not been the case this season as they have the fourth-highest strikeout rate against lefties at 26.8-percent while ranking in the bottom five in both batting average and wOBA. When it comes to strikeouts, Skubal owns a 9.09 K/9 and has twice hit the over on this number which came in starts against the Astros and Royals. 

 

Hunter Greene Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-125 DraftKings Sportsbook)

There has been no bigger wild card it feels like this season when on the mound than Hunter Greene as the Reds rookie right-hander has struck out 35 over 29 innings with a K/9 of 12.12 but his ERA on the season is 7.62. Betting on Greene is essentially betting on a race of whether or not he can get to six strikeouts before he gives up six runs. That said, Greene has gone over 5.5 strikeouts in five of his six starts this season. He is even pitching a bit better of late, allowing just five runs over his last 10.1 innings while striking out 13 during that stretch. The Pirates have the fifth-highest strikeout rate against RHP this season at 25.1-percent.

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