We have a solid looking MLB slate of games tonight when it comes to our PrizePicks MLB player props board. When looking at some of today's MLB top player props to target we are finally starting to get a little bigger of a sample size when it comes to split matchups for teams but where we are still early enough in the season that some of these props remain low. We are also going to start benefiting from pitchers going deeper into games as they build up their innings and it may take the prop makers a bit to adjust to those as well. With that said, let's take a look at today's top MLB player props to build our tickets around!

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PrizePicks MLB Top Plays

 

Walker Buehler Over 5.5 Strikeouts

So, Dave Roberts obviously terrifies me when it comes to any of the Dodgers starters as it is pretty clear they have a plan in place when it comes to pitch count and it does not matter if you have a perfect game going into the eighth inning because you are coming out when you hit your limit. Buehler was afforded 78 pitches in his first start, leading me to believe that he was expected to throw 80 in his first outing. My hope is that he gets a little bit of a longer leash here tonight against a Reds team that has a league-high 31.1-percent strikeout rate this season against right-handed pitching. This feels like a spot for Buehler to dominate and a strikeout total that feels just a little low.

 

Case Mize Under 3.5 Strikeouts

Here are things we know. First, the Royals have just a 15.6-percent strikeout rate on the season, good for the 2nd best mark in the league so far. Last season, the Royals had the third-lowest strikeout rate at 21.0-percent. So, the Royals do not strike out. Second, Casey Mize does not have a high strikeout rate. Last season, his K/9 was 7.06 and his strikeout rate was at 19.3-percent. In his first start this season he faced the White Sox and struck out just two over 5.0 innings before being removed. So, to summarize, we have a team that does not strike out vs a pitcher who does not strike out anyone. Let's take the under.

 

Zack Greinke Over 16.5 Pitching Outs

The most dangerous game right now in prop betting outside of the NRFI is the pitching outs given the innings and pitch limits some of these starters are seemingly on to begin the year but for Greinke I think we may be in the clear. In his first start of the season, he actually hit the over on this mark, recording 17 outs against the Guardians while throwing an even more encouraging 84 pitches. Assuming he gets a bit of a longer leash today when it comes to pitch count he draws a very favorable matchup against a Tigers lineup that is hitting just .188 against RHP this season with an OBP of just .280. The veteran right-hander isn't striking many guys out these days and that may actually be in his favor as hitters are swinging at pitching and making bad contact which keep the pitch count low and the outs, hopefully, coming easy.

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