This NBA offseason has seen a ton of player movement, even prior to draft night. Teams are re-tooling and while we expect to see it from teams who struggled/tanked last season, we have actually seen some of the Top Contenders in the league change their on-court personnel. The Boston Celtics and Cleveland Cavaliers made a blockbuster trade involving two of the top Guards in the league from 2017. The Boston Celtics traded Isaiah Thomas, Jae Crowder and Ante Zizic to the Cavs for Kyrie Irving.
For the last few months, Irving expressed his unhappiness in Cleveland. Stories of Irving keeping his distance from his teammates during the Playoffs have come out and we all wonder, is it the team as a whole? Management changes? LeBron James? Irving wanted out, but why? Cleveland has been a contender each season since James returned to his homeland. If winning a Championship IS the goal, why leave? The reason all of these questions must come up is because of the fate of Isaiah Thomas from a fantasy perspective.
To say Thomas had a career year in 2016-2017 is an understatement. For a good amount of the season teams could not stop him in the lane. Thomas scored nearly 29 points per game last season and led Boston to the Eastern Conference Finals. Thomas had to do all he did in the postseason with a heavy heart as he lost his sister in a car accident. A hip injury took him out of the playoffs and Boston couldn’t hang.
Now Thomas takes his 28.9 ppg to the Cavs in which King James gets to hold court whenever he wants. After all, he is still the best all-around player in the league. I can care less whether or not Russell Westbrook stat-packed his way to the NBA MVP, James Harden is still the Webster Dictionary definition of a complete NBA player. For those in keeper leagues debating what to do with Thomas, here is what he’s facing coming into next season.
Thomas is dealing with a hip injury and for a Guard that is certainly not ideal. Thomas beat most of his opposition with quickness and agility, both that are impacted by hip problems. There is NO WAY Thomas has as productive of a season from the scoring front. The Cavs have a ton of shoot-happy players and he will even lose shot opportunities to J.R. Smith. Unlike the Celtics, the Cavs have inside and outside scoring big men. Thomas will have to feed Tristan Thompson on the give and go often on transitions and as for Kevin Love, when he sets up at the arc, he’s shooting the ball. It will be hard for Thomas to once again average over 20 points per game (at least for next season).
Thomas’s injury has no timetable. It is possible that he may not play next season if his hip does not heal correctly. It’s possible! The Celtics look like geniuses for not only trading Thomas at peak value, but damaged as well. Are you going to keep a player who may not play next season? Thomas was amazing at reading screens and that will be very difficult with a hip ailment. Once Thomas does come back, he will have to acclimate himself into an offense in which he’s not the top priority. He moves down to third on this scoring depth chart. I’m convinced the Cavs Management didn’t fully do their homework when making this trade. If Thomas comes back healthy, I see him scoring 16-19 points and dishing 7-8 assists per game. Thomas will have to learn to to play more of a traditional Point Guard role on the Cavs and he’s already going to likely start the season in pain. The Cavs paid minimum salary for Derrick Rose and they won’t rush Thomas back.
On the other side of the coin, Irving’s fantasy value should not take too much of a hit. Teammate Gordon Hayward will be taking a lot of shots, but won’t be as demanding with possessing the ball as James was. Hayward is more effective off the ball. He’s solid at running the floor and that should keep the ball in Irving’s hands a bit more. The Celtics system is already used to the Guards being the major scorers and Irving who averaged a career-best 25.2 ppg should be able to score around the same amount, maybe a couple of points less. Irving dished 5.8 assists last season and I’m expecting his assist numbers to be in the 7-8 range even with no true inside big man presence.
Irving will be focusing more on hitting players at the key and on the curl right inside the arc rather than on the lower block. Irving is a good driver and the Celtics offense is very familiar with quick drivers. The transition for Irving should be smoother than Isaiah Thomas. A lot of Thomas’s success over the last couple of seasons can be credited to Celtics Coach Brad Stevens. Irving will fine-tune his game under Stevens and if he can do what Thomas did last season, he can be in the MVP discussion. A logical explanation I can see for Irving wanting to leave Cleveland is also because unlike Stevens, who has made a positive impact on most of the players he’s coached (including Hayward back in College), Tyronn Lue is a figurehead in Cleveland and does not make his players better. He bows to King James and James is the on-court floor general.
Could this trade mean fewer minutes for LeBron James next season? Hold the phone! The whole time while explaining why Irving would want to leave (James controlling everything on the court) this trade should start the preservation of LeBron James the Basketball player. While the Cavs got their picks, and an injured Thomas (who could walk after next season), the Cavs did pick up a strong perimeter defender in mid-range Forward Jae Crowder. In the Cavs current lineup, expect Crowder to come off the bench and still play 30 plus minutes per game. The NBA is looking to crack down on player resting, and rather than ruling James out of certain games, Crowder’s strong defensive presence allows the Cavs to hold James back a bit and play him fewer minutes in the chunk of their games.
Crowder was a key piece of this deal because the Celtics lost a ton defense (along with the departure of Avery Bradley to Detroit), but he can hit knock-down mid-range jumpers. Crowder shot nearly 40 percent from the outside and he will find himself open often and teams will struggle regarding who to put the extra defender on between Crowder and Kevin Love. Crowder can definitely score 14 points per game again and similar responsibilities will be asked of him in Cleveland.
This trade should make for an easy transition for Crowder and Irving. Both should average similar stats to last season and Irving should become a more matured guard by the end of next season. The Cavs know Zizic is a long-term project, but the tape shows he’s a rugged defender inside and with the Celtics lack of depth at the position, they will want to get him moving quickly. As for Thomas, your guess is as good as mine as to when we will see him take the floor again, but we can absolutely say with confidence that his days of being a top three-point scorer in the league are over. I didn’t think he would repeat what he did last season BEFORE the trade to Cleveland. Now? Production only goes down until he gets used to the new offense.