The constant change in average draft position is proven in this edition of ADP TV. All it takes it one to two weeks during the heart of draft season for a player to go from being appealing to being cooled off on and if you look at the Texans run-game, you’ll see just how hard it is to predict which RB will be most productive. Situations change constantly as we continue to see, one injury can cause an immediate multi-round rise no matter how talented to the player is. Opportunity is a big part of how ADP is determined and as we’ll see throughout the season from the physicality of the game of football, opportunities will open up weekly.

Risers

Gus Edwards (Last Week ADP 108.92-Today ADP 55.17): J.K. Dobbins was a solidified second round pick in 12-team leagues but after tearing his Knee up, it’s next RB up in Baltimore. Lamar Jackson runs plenty, but the Ravens health issues at wide receiver will likely have them lean more heavily on the run at the start of the season. Even though he’s currently being drafted in the fifth round of 12-team leagues, Edwards will likely cost a late-3rd/early-4th round pick for those drafting over the next few days. Edwards has averaged no fewer than five yards per carry and he hasn’t missed a game in the last two seasons. The big question with Edwards will be if he can handle a bigger workload of at least 200 rush attempts for the season. The most rush attempts he had in a season was 144 in 2020 and he rushed in 6 scores. He will continue to rise up draft boards if the Ravens continue to stand pat and not trade nor sign another running back. The Ravens have Ty’Son Williams and Justice Hill behind Edwards, but it will be Edwards that gets the first chance to fill Dobbins cleats. 

Mike Davis (Last Week ADP 56.79 -Today ADP 53.48): Davis is another player that has never been given 200 carries in a season, but has the potential to eclipse that number in 2021. While Davis can catch passes, can he be an effective runner? He’s rushed for four yards per carry just once in his five professional seasons. The Falcons also just signed Wayne Gallman which is a little bit worrisome for Davis investors because if Davis can’t get it going on the ground, Gallman got plenty of touches last year in the Giants offense and rushed for 4.6 yards per carry and could find himself getting more rushing attempts. Matt Ryan also threw more than any other QB last season. Davis’ recent rise in ADP comes from fantasy players thinking at least he’ll get the volume on the ground. Gallman could threaten that. Davis has been sitting in the fifth round of 12-team leagues and definitely has some risk and you should plan on surrounding him with other RB depth earlier if you’re targeting him.

Courtland Sutton (Last Week ADP 80.53-Today ADP 74.31): Sutton looks healthy and has not had any setbacks and should be fully ready to go for the first week of the season. Sutton’s rise in ADP results from the trust in health after he tore his ACL last year. When the Broncos named Teddy Bridgewater the starter at QB, a lot of the spotlight immediately went to Jerry Jeudy as Sutton is more of a threat further down the field. Jeudy received 113 targets with Sutton sidelined and while we’ve seen a lot of excitement surrounding Jeudy, there are still plenty of targets to go around for Sutton. Sutton posted 1112 receiving yards with 6 touchdowns in 2019. Teddy Bridgewater is coming off of his most successful season from a completion standpoint completing over 69 percent of his passes last season. While there will always be some paranoia surrounding players who missed most of the previous season, Sutton going in the seventh round makes him a good value as your team’s third or fourth wide receiver. 

Fallers

Jalen Hurts (Last Week ADP 99.51-Today ADP 106.04): Even though this is just Hurts second season in the league, he only completed 52 percent of his passes last season. The Eagles have an unproven receiving corps despite drafting DeVonta Smith. Hurts can do a lot with his legs and has two skilled Tight Ends to work with in the Eagles offense. Hurts ran in three touchdowns last season. It’s a new offense and the Eagles just traded for Gardner Minshew and that could have turned off fantasy players being that the Eagles added another QB option. The trade for Minshew could be for depth or it could mean that Hurts will be on a short leash to start the season. He threw for just 70.7 yards per game last year and we can’t forget that the Eagles do have RB’s they could look to utilize more this season and we’ll need more from Hurts than just what he could do on the ground. 

Phillip Lindsay (Last Week ADP 136.32-Today ADP 144.19): Just when we thought Lindsay was on the rise and close to gaining some serious real estate in the Texans backfield, the last preseason game left a sour taste in the mouths of those interested in him as a late draft flier throughout August. Mark Ingram could be getting early down work and let’s not forget that David Johnson is still part of the backfield as well. While we all want to dismiss Johnson entirely, we know that he will have a role of some kind unless he’s traded. They also still have Rex Burkhead who could see a little love in the Texans offense. It obviously won’t be just one RB running the show and we may not have a good read on this run-game for weeks. Lindsay has two seasons in which he rushed for over 1000 yards and he can catch passes as well, but, Mark Ingram has rushed for at least 4.2 yards per carry in each of his last 8 seasons.

JuJu Smith-Schuster (Last Week ADP 67.17-Today ADP 71.54): With Najee Harris aboard in Pittsburgh who can catch passes, recent ADP trends show that Smith-Schuster is the least trusted among Steelers WRs. He’s toggling between being a sixth and seventh round pick in 12-team leagues. The Steelers brought back Smith-Schuster for a reason. They could have let him walk and signed someone else on the cheap and then feature Chase Claypool and Diontae Johnson. He caught 97 passes and has been targeted at least 128 times 2 of his last 3 seasons. Roethlisberger will continue to hit Smith-Schuster on short routes and even though the yardage may not hit 1000, he should get plenty of catches to make up for it and Smith-Schuster caught a career-high 9 touchdowns last season. He should still hit the 100-target mark this season.