Phoenix Suns-Milwaukee Bucks

Over/Under: 222

Spread: MIL -5

NBA Finals

Game 6

Last game broke the trend of the home team winning every game after the Bucks won their third straight in this series Saturday night in Phoenix. Besides the usual Bucks leaders Giannis Antetokounmpo and Khris Middleton putting up stellar scoring performances, Jrue Holiday added 27 points alone to go along with 13 dimes and 3 steals. The Suns took an early lead led by Devin Booker who ended up scoring 40 points and were up by 16 after the 1st quarter. Chris Paul and Deandre Ayton put up double-doubles, but it wasn’t enough as the Bucks dominated the second and third quarters and the Suns fell short of a comeback after cutting their deficit to one point with under a minute to go in the game. Jrue Holiday came up with a timely steal and Antetokounmpo scored on the other side of the court to extend the lead. The key to tonight’s game is defense and clock management because it’s been virtually a race to 118 points. Can one of these teams clamp down and limit the other even when the opposing team is shooting well? Both teams shot over 55 percent from the floor last game and if the Bucks can match the Suns shooting again, they will win the Championship. It’s hard to keep Antetokounmpo out of the lane just like it’s hard to always keep up with the speedy Booker. If the Suns have the lead, they need to use the clock to set plays up and not rush shots because they see an opening. Both teams are clearly driving the lane more, especially Holiday and Booker and both teams need to keep the pressure on the lane and not just back out to the arc with the ball. 

Injuries:

*Donte DiVincenzo-Out

*Dario Saric-Out

*Thanasis Antetokounmpo-Out

*Sam Merrill-Questionable

MVP/CAPTAIN 

Giannis Antetokounmpo- It continues to be difficult trusting another CPT option because the Bucks offense specifically runs through him and he continues to shoot well from the floor despite struggles at the free-throw line. Antetokounmpo has shot over 60 percent from the field while taking at least 22 field goals in 3 of his last 4 contests. He scored 32-plus points during that stretch. Antetokounmpo is doing what he wants in the lane and in recent games he’s been hitting cutters in the lane more and his assist-numbers reflect that. Antetokounmpo has dished six or more dimes in each of his last three games. Even though he only grabbed nine boards last game, he’s pulled down at least 12 in every other game in the series. Every little bit helps and he’ll help produce blocks and steals more often than not. He’ll play 40-plus minutes the rest of the series, as the Bucks need him on the floor as much as possible. 

Devin Booker- With the Suns backs against the wall, expect Booker to take 30 or more shots once again. He will have the eternal green light to shoot and after seeing him score in the 40’s for the 2nd straight game, he continues to be another option if you want to be different with your lineups. Booker has blocked shots in his last two contests, but it really all comes down to his scoring when we’re looking at areas of production. He’s grabbed four to six boards in three of his last four outings, but as the series has continued, his assists have dropped. His steals production has also been inconsistent. As stated above though, the shot-floor is going to be very high as the Suns face elimination. Booker has shot at least 51.5 percent from the floor in his last 2 battles and he’s not staying at the arc. He has taken advantage of driving the lane when Antetokounmpo was planted at the elbow. When Antetokounmpo isn’t set up in the middle of the paint, the Suns should continue to drive because it’s hard for Antetokounmpo to get in position in time without fouling. Booker has done a great job of getting to the hoop and we should expect him to play 40 minutes tonight. 

FLEX PLAYS 

Khris Middleton- If the Suns are bringing their A-game when it comes to shooting, Middleton is going to have to help Antetokounmpo out a lot. He is going to have to take at least 25 shots tonight and he’s shot at least 42.9 percent from the floor in his last 3 contests. He’s dropped 29-plus points in 3 of 5 games in this series. Middleton has done a good job of stepping inside the arc when the three-pointers aren’t falling. He has hit three in each of his last three games, but he’s not married to the arc. Middleton has been getting a lot of open mid-range shots off of screens. Middleton will need to play mid-40’s minutes to help keep the pace with the Suns offensive flow. Middleton continues to be consistent in other stat categories such as grabbing six to seven rebounds and dishing four to six dimes. He’s even grabbed steals in three of his last four games and being that he draws tough match ups against Mikal Bridges and Jae Crowder, he has been able to put more shots up in his last two games and that should give us a lot more confidence about spending up to get him in our lineups tonight. 

Deandre Ayton- Ayton has pulled down at least 10 boards in all but 1 game in this series and we even saw him play 45 minutes last game. The Suns don’t have much of an inside game. Ayton is truly all they have and the reason why it’s very difficult for Ayton to get plays called for him in the post is because if enough time passes in the possession, Antetokounmpo will switch on him and Ayton hasn’t been putting the ball up strong against him. Ayton continues to take double-digit shots regularly in this series and he’s scored 18-plus points in 3 out of 5 games. Ayton has also blocked multiple shots and grabbed at least one steal in three of his last four battles. Frank Kaminsky isn’t effective inside and the Suns need Crowder to hang at the arc because he’s the Suns primary bailout shooter from downtown if the Bucks defense collapses on any of the Suns drivers. Foul trouble has only hindered Ayton once this series the Suns are going to have to continue trying to run pick and rolls for him immediately before the Bucks defense gets set.

Chris Paul- We saw Paul bounce back nicely last game after he had a miserable game four. Paul shot 60 percent from the field, hit all 3 of his trey’s and he limited his turnovers to 1 after committing 15 collectively in the previous 3 games. He scored 21 points. Paul also dished the most amount of dimes he’s dished all series last game producing 11. Paul has no fewer than seven assists in a game. Paul has had his struggles throughout this series, but he is a huge reason they are in this position and Paul’s minutes should hover around 40 tonight. Paul posted steals in three of five games in this series. After taking 15 shots last game, he should take 15-20 shots tonight. A big key for Paul will be his driving ability and drawing contact. He doesn’t go to the free throw line much and if Ayton isn’t getting the job done in the post, Booker can’t be the only Suns player driving the lane. Paul likes to pull-up inside the arc straight away from the basket to take shots. He needs to draw more contact while driving and because of how much Booker moves around on the court, driving and dishing will help Paul’s assist-total because even Booker will see better shots. 

Jrue Holiday- Holiday has been inconsistent with his shooting throughout the series, but he’s been a multi-category producer and that gives him a little more of a floor. Holiday dished 13 dimes last game and has dished 9 or more in 3 of five games. Holiday has taken 20 field goals in both of his last 2 games and that is very encouraging heading into tonight. Like the Suns, the Bucks don’t get a lot of inside post-play besides Antetokounmpo and Holiday’s slashing ability will be very needed tonight to seal the deal for the Bucks title. Holiday has grabbed multiple steals in three of his last four outings. He’s even blocked a shot in three of his last four games. We can even count on Holiday to grab a few boards as well. He’ll play at least 40 minutes tonight and he must have the awareness that if the trey’s aren’t falling, he needs to utilize his strong drive. It’s not hard getting Ayton out of position and Holiday should look to attack the rack hard and try to draw contact early. The poor shooting throughout the majority of the series is a big concerning for Holiday, but he’s feisty on the perimeter and his defense is needed no matter how many shots he hits or misses.

Jae Crowder- For the fourth straight game, Crowder has scored 25-plus DraftKings points and because of his strong defense, he’ll play into the late-30’s tonight. After missing every shot in the first game of the series, Crowder has shot at least 50 percent from the field in 3 of his last 4 games. Crowder can be relied on to grab at least five rebounds tonight and he’s swiped five balls total in his last two outings. Crowder has even blocked shots in three of five games in this series. He was a key piece in the Heat’s finals run last season and Crowder has been very vital on defense. As mentioned before, Crowder hangs out at the arc a lot waiting to be fed for an open three-pointer. He’s knocked down at least three three-pointers in three of his last four games. Crowder should take seven to 10 shots tonight. View any help he provides with assists as an added bonus. Crowder has had just two games this series in which he has turned the ball over. In order for the Suns to save their season, Crowder is going to have to somehow limit Antetokounmpo when matched up against him in the post while hitting his high-percentage long-range shots.

DART THROWS 

Pat Connaughton- Connaughton is coming off of his best shooting performance of the series hitting four of six treys and he remains a prime dart-throw and has a safe floor when it comes to playing time. He’s scored in double figures for the third time in his last four battles. Connaughton should play at least 30 minutes tonight. He’s prioritized way more than other Bucks benched players. Besides hitting shots as the Bucks bailout shooter, Connaughton has been stepping inside the arc to grab long rebounds. He’s pulled down six or more in three of his last four games. Connaughton should see between five and 10 shots tonight and with the rebounding help he’s provided, he’s proven to be not just reliant on scoring. 

Cameron Johnson- When in showdown we want to invest in players that will at least get a full rotation commitment and as enticing as Cameron Payton was to put in this portion of the article, the safer minutes floor goes to Johnson, especially in an elimination game. Paul and Booker will play as much as they have to in order to save their season. Johnson has been an offensive spark off the Suns bench and if the Suns find themselves down big tonight early and the team is cold shooting from the field, this could lead to Johnson getting more shots out of desperation to get them back in the game. There’s no point in choosing defense over offense when down by 18-20 points early in the 2nd half. If the Suns are down big and Crowder or Bridges aren’t hitting shots, it could bode well for Johnson’s production. Regardless, we can count on Johnson playing 20 minutes tonight and he’s grabbed at least 4 rebounds and blocked 1 shot in 2 of his last 3 contests.