Phoenix Suns-Milwaukee Bucks

Over/Under: 220.5

Spread: PHX -5

NBA Finals

Game 2

The first game of the NBA Finals showed that the Suns have the depth advantage between these two teams. Giannis Antetokounmpo is deemed healthy after playing 35 minutes on Tuesday. He did come up lame at times and we saw him in a bit of pain. He was still able to score 20 points and grab 17 rebounds. He only took 11 shots and was used more as a decoy on offense. The Suns weren’t able to fully pull away from the Bucks because of Khris Middleton dropping 29 points. Jrue Holiday shot horribly and the Bucks couldn’t make up for it as the Suns won by 13 points. Chris Paul and Deandre Ayton put up dominant efforts last game and Devin Booker despite not shooting well from the field, made up for it by hitting all 10 of his free-throws. The big questions heading into tonight will be whether or not Antetokounmpo will play more in the paint and not at the elbow on defense and if that’s the case, how will it impact Ayton’s offensive game? Can Antetokounmpo physically limit Ayton? The Bucks will hang in this game a bit more if they can keep Ayton away from the basket.

Injuries:

*Donte DiVincenzo-Out

*Dario Saric-Out

MVP/CAPTAIN 

Giannis Antetokounmpo- Can we truly believe taking post-game soreness and overall health into account that Antetokounmpo will put up more shots tonight? After only taking 11 field goals in 35 minutes, we have to wonder if Antetokounmpo isn’t healthy enough to be fully explosive. He did grab 17 boards, which is encouraging, and blocked a shot for the third straight contest. Antetokounmpo posted a multi-steal game for the fourth time in five games. What’s working in Antetokounmpo’s favor is that he had the ability to jump and was able to produce defensive stats. If he can’t use his momentum to move forward though, expect the lane to be closed down and for him to be passing off more. The Suns would rather sacrifice allowing Khris Middleton to get better shots in order to limit Antetokounmpo. The minutes are there and safe. Should we fear that one misstep can sideline him for the rest of the game and series? Of course, but that’s a worry we have with every basketball player. It didn’t look like Dario Saric tore his ACL from the replay of where the injury occurred, but he’s done now. We have to think Antetokounmpo will find a way to put up at least 15 shots tonight. 

Chris Paul- The opening of last game was ugly from Paul, but it’s about how you respond that helps you overcome adversity. He kept shooting and eventually caught fire using all of his tricks to weave around the elbow and take a central mid-range jumper from one step behind the free-throw line. Booker will take more shots than him, but Paul has the bigger ceiling when it comes to multi-category production. He has dished eight or more dimes in each of his last three games. The Bucks keep putting Brook Lopez one on one against him and Paul continuously fired away over Lopez’ head and scored. Paul’s shot total should once again hover around 20 and he he’ll play between 35-40 minutes. He’s a safer option and probably the safest option to make CPT because we don’t know what to expect offensively from Antetokounmpo and that could impact all other Bucks players and as I stated before, beyond scoring, Booker doesn’t help as much in other stat-categories. Paul has grabbed steals in four of his last five and pulled down four boards in three of his last four battles. 

Khris Middleton- There were many times this game could have gotten out of hand with the Suns destroying the Bucks, but Middleton’s shooting and aggressive play kept the Bucks from getting blown out. Middleton hit five three-pointers and shot over 45 percent from the floor for the 3rd straight game. He’ll provide some assistance when it comes to rebounding and assists, but up until last game he posted three straight multi-steal outings. Expect Middleton to take 22-27 shots this evening and if the Bucks are going keep themselves from falling down 0-2, Middleton has to have the game of his career, which will be tough with Mikal Bridges all over him. He has a safe shot floor assuming Antetokounmpo still isn’t 100 percent. 

FLEX PLAYS 

Deandre Ayton- Ayton had the lane all game last game and the Bucks might be forced to put the hobbled Antetokounmpo in the middle to clog the paint. Not only was Ayton getting inside easily off of the pick-and-roll, but he has these one-handed post moves he was executing that are hard to contest. Ayton once again took 10 shots, and scored 22 points and grabbed 19 boards. He’s grabbed 17 or more in 3 of his last 4 contests. Expect Ayton to play close to 40 minutes in each game. Even though his back up Saric is out, Frank Kaminsky will give Ayton brief breaks throughout the game and that’s all that we can expect. Ayton doesn’t need to stretch the floor like a lot of other centers as he produces completely inside the arc. He attacks the paint with the ball from the elbow and posts up when he draws the mismatch in the lane. Ayton has grabbed steals and blocked shots in four of his last five games. Until Milwaukee clogs that lane, the Suns should continue drawing up plays for Ayton in the post. It was too easy last game and the Suns just need to hit him more on the low block.

Jrue Holiday- The assists and boards were there last game for Holiday, but he couldn’t get his shot going and shot a miserable 28.6 percent from the field. Expect Holiday to be in more attack mode tonight. With Antetokounmpo’s lane-attacking ability clearly limited, Holiday will have to use his strong drive even more. Antetokounmpo being back lowers Holiday’s shooting ceiling, but we should still see him take at least 15-18 shots tonight. Hopefully, a lot of those shots are layups off of strong drives. Holiday has the safe floor when it comes to playing time, but his shooting has been all over the place throughout the playoffs and we can normally rely on him for boards, dimes and steals, but if the Bucks are going to stay alive in this series, Holiday will have to hit most of his shots as a lot of the Bucks back up shooters are too streaky to trust. This is setting up to be a good bounce-back spot for Holiday when it comes to his scoring. 

Devin Booker- Booker bring the same risk every game as the vast majority of his production is scoring and unless we can expect him to put up 35 points every game, it’s hard to justify not spending up a little more for Chris Paul in DFS. Booker has the minutes, shots and steals on his side, but his assist-numbers will be limited with Paul in the lineup handling most possessions and his rebounding has been inconsistent lately. Booker has shot under 41 percent from the floor in 4 of his last 5 games. He hit more than one three-pointer just once during that stretch. Yes, Booker has grabbed steals in each of his last five games and he’ll play over 40 minutes. Booker continues to shoot poorly from the floor, but gets bailed out because he attacks the rim with force and draws contact and hits most of his free-throws he takes and he’s taken at least 10 in 3 of his last 4 games. 

Brook Lopez- He’s been rebounding a little more grabbing at least six in his last three contests, but his playing time raises a red flag. Lopez wasn’t an effective defender last game and because he’s soft in the post, the Bucks will likely need to put Antetokounmpo right in the center of the paint to prevent the Suns from exploiting them inside the arc. Lopez took 14 shots in 23 minutes, but will that happen again? Does Bobby Portis bring more toughness than him and both their minutes will be limited with a pretty even split? Lopez has blocked shots in nine of his last 10 outings and he continues to score in double figures consistently. We can’t count on a double-double from Lopez and seeing him play just 23 minutes is a bit discouraging. He can absolutely score in double figures just playing 20 minutes, but Lopez isn’t an effective inside scorer once he’s contested. He gets forced out of the lane despite being over seven feet tall. With the way the Bucks will need to adjust to shut down the Suns on offense, it could hinder both Lopez and Portis even more.

DART THROWS 

Cameron Johnson- We’ve seen Johnson get noticed a bit more for his ability to hit shots, but his minutes and shot-ceiling still remain limited, thus making him a dart throw type of play once again. He’s taken six shots in both of his last two games and played over 20 minutes in both contests. Johnson has grabbed five steals total in his last two games. He was excellent at using his speed to get back on defense when the Bucks were on transition and trying to push the ball. Despite the limited amount of shots he gets, Johnson has hit at least 50 percent of his field goals in each of his last 5 games. We’ve been able to count on Johnson for minimal rebounding help as well. Jae Crowder will be prioritized over Johnson because of his defense limiting Johnson’s minutes, but if both he and Bridges shoot poorly and offense is needed, Johnson could be featured a bit more. The fact that he was able to snag 21 minutes off the bench in the finals and made critical defensive plays shows that he’ll be relied on once again heading into tonight.

P.J. Tucker- Tucker continues to play over 30 minutes and unlike Lopez and Portis, we know going into tonight that Tucker’s defense and physicality is needed, especially with Antetokounmpo hurt a bit. Tucker has taken six or more shots in his last two games and he’s grabbed steals in each of his last three games. Tucker continues to be used primarily as a bailout option on offense. He’ll look to be open for a three-pointer from the corner. That’s his spot! I’ve noticed lately that Tucker will cut back door and put up an easy layup from time to time. The Suns forget he’s out there and when their backs are turned, Tucker attacks the rim from the side and gets an easy bucket. Tucker has scored over 20 DraftKings points in 2 of his last 3 games. His minutes are safe and value on the board is very limited.