Milwaukee Bucks-Atlanta Hawks
Over/Under: 225
Spread: MIL -8.5
Eastern Conference Finals
Game 2
Between missed shots from Khris Middleton and the Hawks being all over the glass, the Hawks were able to take another Game 1 on the road. Trae Young scored 48 points and notched a double-double by adding on 11 assists and John Collins and Clint Capela joined him in double-double land. Capela grabbed 19 rebounds and Collins grabbed 15 and the Bucks for some stupid reason decided to limit both Brook Lopez and Bobby Portis’ minutes. They went a bit smaller and it cost them and even towards the end of the game, we saw the Hawks get more second-chance scoring opportunities. The Bucks looked more organized and saw success when Portis was in the game. Cam Reddish was active for Atlanta bit did not play. The Hawks still struggled shooting from downtown only hitting 25 percent from long-range, but they shot 49.5 percent from the field overall. The Bucks shot even worse from downtown, hitting only 22.2 percent of their shots with Khris Middleton going 0-9 from beyond the arc. The Bucks will need to shoot better in order to keep up with the Hawks. Milwaukee looked fatigued down the stretch and the endurance factor has favored the Hawks in each match up.
Injuries:
*Bogdan Bogdanovic-Questionable
*De’Andre Hunter-Out
*Donte DiVincenzo-Out
MVP/CAPTAIN
Giannis Antetokounmpo- Business as usual for the Bucks top option as he scored 34 points, grabbed 12 boards and dished 9 dimes. Antetokounmpo got to play a lot of Center and that keeps him on that low block meaning his rebounding ceiling will be raised unless the Bucks come to their senses and utilize their height a bit more than they did in the first game. Antetokounmpo had a ton of easy trips to the lane and from the start of tonight’s game he should be in full attack mode until the Hawks shutdown the lane on his forcing him to pass off. He also grabbed two steals and blocks last game and played 41 minutes. Expect similar minutes as the Bucks are in danger of losing homecourt with the series shifting to Atlanta for the next two games after tonight. He didn’t hit a three-pointer last game, but Antetokounmpo needs to keep using his size to force his way in the paint and draw contact. He shouldn’t spend any time at the arc and should only shoot if the shot clock is down to two seconds. If more Bucks hit their shots tonight, we could be looking at a triple-double.
Trae Young- Like Antetokounmpo, Young saw a lot of success driving the lane except the difference between the two is Young would halt at around the free-throw area and put up a tear-drop and the Bucks didn’t adjust and he was able to get open looks all night long. The Bucks will need to play up on Young more at the top of the paint. Force him to shoot more three-pointers until he gets hot. Young took 34 shots and dished 11 dimes. With Bogdan Bogdanovic looking rusty and not 100 percent, the Hawks will need to rely on Young even more. Young played 41 minutes like Antetokounmpo and we should expect nothing less tonight. He should take between 25-30 shots this evening. Young even grabbed seven boards last time out.
Jrue Holiday- Switching CPT spot options for the Bucks because Holiday has a very easy match up and he will continue to see success. Holiday took as many shots as Antetokounmpo (25) and we should expect him to keep getting fed. He shot over 50 percent from the floor last game and notched a double-double scoring 33 points and dishing 10 dimes. Holiday is a much tougher assignment for the weaker Hawks defenders in their backcourt and Holiday will take advantage once again and he was driving the lane successfully as well. If Middleton has another poor shooting night, Holiday will see even more shots. He played 42 minutes in the first game of this series. Holiday has scored 21 points or more in 2 of his last 3 games. Expect Holiday to play at least 40 minutes tonight.
FLEX PLAYS
Khris Middleton- When it comes to investment percentage expectations, Middleton should be less on the popular side after last game’s miserable shooting display. Middleton has shot under 37 percent from the floor in 3 of his last 4 games. Middleton was able to extend his multi-steal game streak to three, but he was unable to hit a single three-pointer all game. He might be a bit more contrarian because of his recent struggles, but if the Bucks are going to hang in this series, Middleton has to hit shots, even if he has to pull up right inside the arc to get better shots. Middleton wasn’t really moving around. He was waiting to be fed, but he has to stay loose and less stationary. He should try cutting to the rim a bit to keep the Hawks defense on their toes. Middleton has taken at least 23 shots in both of his last 2 games and he should play at least 40 minutes tonight.
John Collins- For the fifth straight game in this postseason, Collins has grabbed double-digit rebounds. He’s grabbed 15 or more in his last 2 contests. He’s produced 40 or more DraftKings points in 3 of his last 4 games. Collins had a lot of success in the paint, as the Bucks were soft in the post. He kept plays alive and scored 23 points without hitting a free-throw. Expect him to be relied on heavily again. Collins is a good emotional leader for the team and is not afraid to get physical in the post. The Hawks should make sure Collins shoots at least 10 shots tonight. He’s actually shot the ball well from the field lately shooting over 58 percent from the floor in 4 of his last 6 games. We’ve seen games where Collins creeps around the arc, but he’s not settling for long-range shots. When the Bucks defense falls back, Collins would be able to get a step in the lane so he drive harder to the rack or he’d pull up at the elbow or the area surrounding it right outside the paint. We’ve seen Collins pull off some post moves and without a ton of size inside, Collins will continue dominating the post.
Clint Capela- There’s no reason why Capela shouldn’t take eight to 10 shots once again tonight. He continues to stay consistent with how many shots he puts up and Capela has scored in double figures in four of his last five games. Capela should once again grab at least 10 boards. Despite his trends showing he’s grabbed boards in every other game, the Hawks were very successful at controlling the paint and Capela grabbed 19 rebounds last game. Capela has been steadily playing mid-30’s minutes and he’s grabbed steals in 3 of his last 4 contests. Even if the Bucks play Brook Lopez more tonight, Capela has a lot more power and will bully him down on the low block. He may not get as many open lobs in this series but if the Bucks refuse to box out, Capela is going to eat all night from right under the basket.
Kevin Huerter- Huerter took the second most three-pointers for the Hawks last game, but, he didn’t do much else besides score 13 points. If Bogdanovic for some reason doesn’t play, Huerter will see even more shots, but even if Bogdanovic plays, he looks slow and could be once again used as a decoy with Huerter picking up more shots. Huerter should look to drive the lane more tonight as the Hawks had a lot of success taking it to the hoop Huerter is an excellent free-throw shooter and he’s spry and will fight for loose balls. Huerter has a safe floor when it comes to minutes and should play at least 35 minutes tonight. He has tremendous range and can hit three’s from way beyond the arc. Seeing Lou Williams still only play 12 minutes is encouraging and Huerter will continue to get a good helping of shots. He took 12 last game.
DART THROWS
Bobby Portis- The Bucks would be absolutely moronic not to play Portis more, especially if they continue struggling, especially from downtown. It shocked me that he only played 15 minutes. He hit five out of eight shots and even grabbed eight boards in just 15 minutes of action. The Bucks need to put more beef in the lane to help Antetokounmpo and Portis is that guy. He’s tougher than Brook Lopez. He should see 18-20 minutes tonight to clog the lane and Portis can also serve as a bailout option for Milwaukee. They need to give him more shots tonight. When Antetokounmpo is driving and the Hawks defense collapses, Portis will be open every time from the arc and he can even cut inside himself to draw contact. GIVE HIM MORE LOVE!
Pat Connaughton- The minutes have been there for him this post-season, but last game Connaughton didn’t hit his shots. He only took six shots and like Middleton, missed every three-pointer he took. Connaughton still grabbed five boards and seeing him play around 30 minutes is encouraging. He fights in the lane on defense and that will keep him in the rotation for longer. It’s called a dart throw for a reason and Connaughton could be relied on more if Middleton stays cold. Connaughton passed off a lot down the stretch, but he’s coming off of a 29-minute outing and he’s grabbed 4 or more boards in 3 of his last 4 games. If he’s moving around the arc more, he’ll be set up for better shots. The Bucks are still favored by 8.5 points heading in and if they pull away from Atlanta early, we could see more of Connaughton involved the offense.