NBA DFS Showdown Preview: Bucks vs. Hawks, Game 1

Milwaukee Bucks-Atlanta Hawks

Over/Under: 225.5

Spread: MIL -8.5

Eastern Conference Finals

Game 1

After a hard fought series against the Nets and taking advantage of their injuries, the Bucks now face the upstart Hawks who have pulled two upsets thus far in the NBA Playoffs, including taking out the No. 1 seeded 76ers. Unlike Joel Embiid, Giannis Antetokounmpo is 100 percent healthy and so are Khris Middleton and Jrue Holiday. The Hawks will need to shoot better this series in order to compete with Milwaukee. The Hawks defeated the Bucks back in April without Trae Young the last time these two teams met up. Atlanta has a lot of fight and were one of the hottest teams in the final few weeks of the season and despite their poor shooting, they’re still here! The Hawks have taken game one of their previous two series and the Bucks would be stupid to take them lightly at this point. The Bucks beat the Hawks twice out of three match ups this season.

Injuries

*Bogdan Bogdanovic - Questionable

*Cam Reddish - Questionable

*De’Andre Hunter - Out

*Donte DiVincenzo - Out

MVP/CAPTAIN 

Giannis Antetokounmpo - If the Bucks are going to advance, it all falls on Antetokounmpo’s game-play. He’s shot well from the field in recent games and he shouldn’t have a problem getting inside and taking advantage of the post with his massive size. John Collins and Clint Capela have their work cut out from them in this series. Antetokounmpo scored 30-plus actual points in each of his last 5 games. He posted two double-doubles in three games versus Atlanta in the regular season and he scored 27 and 31 points in those games. Antetokounmpo should be expected to play between 35-40 minutes and he should take at least 20 shots tonight. We’ll have to see if he has similar success on the glass this evening because the Hawks have a bit more skilled size inside. Antetokounmpo exceeded his season-long rebounding average of 11.7 in each of his last 5 games. 

Trae Young - Young has to shoot better if the Hawks are going to have any chance of pulling another upset. They’ve been streaky as a team, but, even last game, Young shot only 21.7 percent from the field. The good news is, he’s minutes and shot proof and the Hawks need him on the floor and he played 40 minutes or more in his last four games. He’s taken 23 or more shots and if Bogdan Bogdanovic is out, expect him to take even more shots. He’ll be relied on heavily. Expect Young to test the Bucks wings and see if they drop back in the paint giving him open teardrops all night. He had trouble getting away from Ben Simmons due to his length. We’ll see if Jrue Holiday can contain him, even a little bit. If Young’s three-pointers aren’t falling, he’ll be on the run more and will continuously attack the rim. Young was inactive for two of the Hawks three games versus Milwaukee. Young has also dished 10 or more dimes and grabbed multiple steals in 2 of his last 3 games. 

Khris Middleton - If you want to be a little different, Middleton made a major impact in the series versus the Nets and he posted double-doubles in three of his last five games. His shots have ranged from 15 to 26 throughout his last few games. Middleton scored 19 or more points in 2 of his 3 games versus the Hawks this season. Not only has the rebounding been there, but the assists have been as well as he’s provided at least five in each of his last four games. Middleton has been a very helpful defender grabbing steals in his last four games and he grabbed five steals in both of his last two outings. Middleton should continue seeing minutes in the 40’s and despite him having a high price tag, a lot more people will naturally flock to Antetokounmpo, but Middleton has held his own as well and when the defense collapses on Antetokounmpo when he drives, Middleton will be left open for high-percentage shots.

FLEX PLAYS 

Jrue Holiday - The Hawks were one of the weaker teams versus Point Guards this season, but they are coming off of playing against a non-factor offensively in Ben Simmons. Holiday will be a much bigger challenge. He’s scored 19 or more points in 2 of his last 3 games and he’s dished 8 or more assists in 3 of his last 4 contests. Holiday scored 19 and 23 points in 2 of the games he played in against Atlanta. Holiday’s minutes are safe and he should play 40. His defense improved throughout the season and he will be the first to try to contain Young. Holiday has even grabbed seven or more boards in his last couple of games along with taking more than 20 shots in both. Holiday will try to get open at the arc, but his drive-game will need to be utilized a bit more so the Hawks don’t get set on transition as much. The Hawks were able to slowdown Philly’s offense because of Simmons fears of shooting. It will be an entirely different match up for Young against Holiday.

John Collins - You can get to the Bucks by attacking the rim and Collins did a lot of that versus the Sixers and he’ll need to keep it up. Antetokounmpo will need to watch the low-block a lot so Clint Capela doesn’t get open lobs all day and that could cause Brook Lopez to switch on Collins and Lopez is slower than Collins. Lopez doesn’t line up in the low-post, he stays high and that’s where Collins is going to be. Collins will have to cut a good portion of the game to keep Lopez moving when he is on him. Collins grabbed 10 or more boards in each of his last 4 games and he blocked shots in 3 of them. Collins didn’t take a lot of shots in his last couple of games. Collins had a 30-point game against the Bucks earlier in the year. He should play 35-40 minutes easily in this game. My one fear with Collins is at somepoint in this series, he and P.J. Tucker are going to get in each other’s face and hopefully it doesn’t get physical. Both have been in people’s faces throughout the playoffs. Collins see’s an over 2.5 percent usage bump with Bogdanovic off the floor.

Clint Capela - After previously having a 16 and 14-rebound game against the Bucks within 10 days of each other, Capela should be able to have similar success. He’ll likely draw Brook Lopez to start unless the Hawks are on the run the whole time. Lopez isn’t a good post defender and Capela should be able to barrel his way inside and it will get very physical in the paint versus Antetokounmpo. Capela scored in double figures in three of his last four games. He’s hit double-digits in rebounding and grabbed steals in three of his last five battles. When the Hawks are on the run, Capela will more often than not, be the recipient of an ally-oop and he should take eight to 10 shots in tonight’s game He continues to play over 30 minutes for the most part and he offers size and power that the Nets couldn’t against Antetokounmpo.

Kevin Huerter - The ceiling will rise for Huerter if Bogdanovic sits, but even if he doesn’t Huerter will get time with the rock with the Hawks second unit. Huerter put up at least 42 DraftKings points in his last 2 games and you can get to the Hawks Forwards as their mid-range game defensively isn’t as strong. Huerter can hit long three-pointers and he often has the presence of mind to step inside the arc and hit an open mid-range jumper. Huerter has taken 10 or more shots in and grabbed a steal in 3 of his last 4 outings. We saw Huerter a bit more aggressive on the glass late in the series versus the Sixers grabbing seven or more boards in his last two contests. His shooting of at least 46 percent from the floor in his last two games makes him more enticing and even if Bogdanovic is active for this game, the Hawks would be smart to rely a bit heavier on Huerter giving him a few more shots and minutes. 

DART THROWS 

P.J. Tucker - It’s risky but we know Tucker will get the minutes. He’s the Enforcer for the Bucks and they’ll need him to keep the Hawks out of the paint. Tucker has grabbed steals in each of his last four games and he blocked shots in his last two games. Tucker on offense is used primarily as a bailout option from downtown. Tucker plays a lot of minutes and should play 33-37 in this game. Tucker has scored in double figures in two of his last four games. There aren’t many other options to trust in Milwaukee besides their big three and Brook Lopez, but in showdown, we need a value and from the Milwaukee side, Tucker has the safe minutes floor and as long as he stays out of foul trouble, he’ll be out there for mid-30’s minutes. 

Lou Williams - Again, it’s showdown and if you want a true dart throw (by definition), the veteran Williams could be relied on more if Bogdanovic sits. It’s hard to trust that he’ll get a full workload of 20 minutes, but we have seen him come in and help out defensively and every little bit helps. A few games ago, Williams came up huge against the Sixers scoring 15 points to help lead the Hawks back when they were down big in the fifth game of the series. Williams has a good baseline leaner and he continues to fake defenders out of his shoes to get open shots. This is a more trustworthy option if indeed the Hawks injured Guards are sidelined for tonight’s game. If the Hawks (who are 8.5-point underdogs on the road) go down big early, expect more of Williams on the floor.