I hate to be the one that has to break this to you but size does indeed matter. Not just in the bedroom but in life. Reaching the high shelf in the kitchen, seeing over people’s heads at parades, always being in the back when you take pictures, these are all ways in which being bigger is better.
It also helps however if you happen to be an NFL wide receiver. You see, the bigger the wide receiver, the better fantasy impact they will likely make. Let me explain.
About a decade ago or so I started to notice a certain pattern with NFL WR’s. The big guys were having the most fun. Back in those days players like Randy Moss (6’4”, 215 lbs), Terrell Owens (6’3”, 226), Keyshawn Johnson (6’4”, 212), Chad Johnson (6’1”, 200) and Javon Walker (6’3”, 220) were starting to take over the game.
I hopped on the big WR bandwagon right away and over the course of the next ten or so years I was able to uncover such breakout performers such as Anquan Boldin (6’1”, 217), Andre Johnson (6’3”, 230), Roy Williams (6’4”, 210) Marques Colston (6’4”, 225), Brandon Marshall (6’4”, 230) & Dwayne Bowe (6’2, 220). Remember, the only one of these players that had any sort of high expectations was Roy Williams and the rest were all outstanding finds for me later on in drafts.
Now there are people who will have you believe that because of the success of Antonio Brown and Odell Beckham that the size of a WR isn’t as important anymore. Are they right? Let’s take a deeper look.
In 2015 eight of the top 25 fantasy wide receivers were under six feet tall. This is just the third time in the past 20 years that more than five of the top 25 were under six foot. But that is just half of the story. The real story is that the shorty WR’s have been trending over the past three seasons. In 2014 seven of the top 25 fantasy producers were less than six feet tall. At the time I write that it was the first time since 2003 and only the second time in the last 20 years that more than five of the top 25 were shorties. In 2013, just four of the top 25 fantasy WR’s were under six foot in 2013. The seasons that Doug Baldwin and John Brown had last season were flukes. These are not the type of players who will regularly be in the top 25 nor are guys like Emmanuel Sanders or Jarvis Landry given their new offensive surroundings.
Let’s dive even deeper. The average height of WR’s in the top 25 last season was 6’2 and 211 lbs. In 2014 the average height was again 6’2” and 214 lbs. So despite the rise in under six footers breaking into the top 25, it hasn’t stopped the big dogs from eating whatsoever.
Much of this increase in smaller receivers scoring has to do with the scoring formats in fantasy football these days. Points per reception formats allow for these underneath receivers who rack up catches to also ring the fantasy points cash register. But even though the receptions among diminutive WR’s was up each of the past two seasons, they still remain poor at catching touchdowns. In fact, just six of the top 40 (15%) touchdown receptions leaders last year were under 6’1”. A year ago in 2014, only eight of the top 50 (16%) were under 6’1” tall.
This is a popular misconception nowadays because everyone falls in love with the slot receiver who gets a ton of receptions. PPR has ruined fantasy football in this way because players are now confused about what pays the bills. The answer there is easy: Touchdowns. In 2015, only three of the top 25 fantasy WR’s had less 6 TD’s. That is an exact repeat of 2014 where touchdowns also reigned supreme. It is just was too difficult for receivers to generate fantasy points without getting into the endzone. Further, historical data tells us that its just as hard for small receivers to get into the endzone.
But wide receiver isn’t the only position that size matters either. There are direct correlations between the size of a quarterback and fantasy production as well. Of the 32 projected starting QB’s this year only three are under 6’2” tall. Those are Drew Brees (6’0”), Tyrod Taylor (6’0”) and Russell Wilson (5’11”). What’s more is of the top 15 fantasy QB’s last year, only Wilson & Brees were under 6’2”. The average height among the top 15 fantasy QB’s last year was 6’3.
This should not be a big surprise to anybody by the way. The taller a QB is the better they can see over the line, the more passing lanes that are open to them and the harder it is for defenders to knock the ball out when pressured. Many think that Russell Wilson can continue the elite fantasy production he’s showed over the past couple years but I just do not. There are so many holes in what Russell Wilson does that its nothing short of spectacular that he produces such great fantasy numbers. Even if he continues to produce for fantasy, do not assume that other small QB’s can do the same. Wilson is a once in a generation anomaly and if you try and make that the case for the next tiny quarterback you are going to really hurt your team.
Then there are the running backs. This is the position where I think it is the hardest to grasp how size matters. Some think that a giant RB is a good thing and that they could just run over everybody but sadly this is not the case. In fact, the larger the RB, the worse the production usually is. Big RB’s present a larger area for would be tacklers, they are slower moving laterally and have a hard time protecting the football. Scouts are looking for RB’s who are between 5’9” and 6’0” tall. Any smaller and they are easy to tackle and don’t hold up to the abuse.
Last year there were just seven RB’s who rushed for over 1,000 yards. Out of those seven RB’s, only DeVonta Freeman and Todd Gurley didn’t fulfill the size/weight requirement we have. In 2014, 13 RB’s rushed for over 1,000 or more yards. Of those 13, just two (Jeremy Hill and Justin Forsett) were outside of the ideal size for a RB.
In fact, of the top 25 rushers last year just four (Freeman, Jeremy Hill, Giovani Bernard and Gurley) were outside the demographic. There is a lot of specialization at the RB position these days and the temptation to draft these “PPR gold” type players. These kind of players are extremely game flow dependent. If their team gets a lead they could not see the field for long periods of time. Small RB’s also have an awful track record of staying healthy and thus you may get a couple solid games out of them but you’ll eventually have to replace them anyways.
The key to this conversation is to understand how the size of players correlates to fantasy success. I am not saying that you should avoid all players outside of these zones. Established players like Antonio Brown, Russell Wilson and Brandin Cooks defy the odds to attain their success. They key is that when you are drafting and planning on breakout performances you need to take into account their height, weight and other physical attributes. After all, football isn’t a game that everybody has a fair shake. It is a game of physical dominance and thus you should take that into consideration on your fantasy teams as well.