Tonight’s Strategy
Tuesday, you say? Jerry Colvin? Yes. It’s true. I am here to give you my blood, sweat, and research to help guide you through tonight’s eight-game slate, hopefully bringing you into the light financially. Keep in mind, this time of year DFS NBA is a sport to be played lightly, lots of players will be getting rested on a regular basis after lineup lock making you feel like you did that first time you asked a girl out and she said no.
As always, all fantasy ppg numbers are FanDuel specific.
So, with the album Desperate Measures by Leeway playing in the background, I bring you today’s Position Coach Article.
Point Guard
The Lakers and the Nets are always two teams I love to pick on in DFS. Why wouldn’t I? Do you know which team allows the third most fantasy ppg to the one? You guessed it, the Lakers. Chris Paul will be the first player I insert into my main FD lineup tonight.
Mike Conley is facing a Pelicans team that is allowing the seventh most fantasy ppg to the position in a game with a -2.5 line. He is averaging over 40 fantasy ppg in his last four.
Goran Dragic is playing in what is the “who cares” game of the night, going up against a Phoenix team allowing the fifth most fantasy ppg to the one.
Cory Joseph for the price sure seems like a deal facing the Bulls who are allowing the second most fantasy ppg to the one. He is averaging over 25 fantasy ppg in his last three.
J.J. Barea has an incredible true usage rate off the bench and when given the chance can easily put up 30 fantasy points or more. Tonight, he gets the Warriors, this could be a fun one.
Spencer Dinwiddie is among the bevy of risky Brooklyn value that will dominate the DFS landscape tonight. A lot of it will be a bust as usual, but a few will not be. My money is on Dinwiddie facing a Pistons team allowing the ninth most fantasy ppg to the one for the minimum salary.
| 3pt | Stl | Blk | FD | DK | Y! | ||||||||||||||||
| PG | Tm | H/A | Opp | GP | MPG | FT% | m/g | Ppg | Reb/g | Apg | /g | /g | TO/G | FG% | Usage | Pts/g | Pts/g | Pts/g | $FD | $DK | $Y |
| Chris Paul | LAC | A | LAL | 50 | 31.3 | 87% | 2.1 | 17.4 | 5 | 9.3 | 2 | 0.1 | 2.4 | 47% | 24% | 39.2 | 41.7 | 40.2 | $9000 | $8400 | $44 |
| Goran Dragic | MIA | H | PHX | 61 | 33.5 | 79% | 1.7 | 20.3 | 3.9 | 6 | 1.2 | 0.2 | 2.9 | 48% | 27% | 33.7 | 36.1 | 34.5 | $8200 | $8100 | $33 |
| Mike Conley | MEM | A | NOP | 58 | 33.3 | 85% | 2.4 | 20 | 3.6 | 6.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 2.2 | 45% | 25.8% | 35 | 37.5 | 36.2 | $8200 | $7600 | $36 |
| Cory Joseph | TOR | H | CHI | 68 | 24.3 | 78% | 0.6 | 9 | 2.8 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 0.1 | 1.2 | 45% | 18.3% | 17.8 | 18.8 | 18.1 | $5000 | $5000 | $14 |
| J.J. Barea | DAL | H | GSW | 24 | 23.1 | 88% | 1.3 | 11.3 | 2.5 | 5.3 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 1.8 | 42% | 25.9% | 21.6 | 23.2 | 22.2 | $4900 | $4100 | $11 |
| Spencer Dinwiddie | BKN | H | DET | 46 | 22.5 | 81% | 0.6 | 7 | 2.6 | 3.2 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 1.2 | 43% | 13.9% | 15.6 | 16.6 | 15.9 | $3500 | $3800 | $10 |
Shooting Guard
DeMar DeRozan although not exactly putting up the numbers I would like remains the top play at the two tonight if you are paying up, but honestly, I am not.
Klay Thompson, bad match-up, or not, I find a much better value than DeRozan tonight. He also put up three 30-spots, and two 40-spots in his last three.
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, or KCP (whose name always makes me hungry for fried chicken) is facing a Nets team allowing the second most fantasy ppg to the two. He is a little unpredictable but is my favorite play here tonight.
J.J. Redick is another one of them riskier players but always worth a shot in an elite match-up like tonight. The Lakers are allowing the sixth most fantasy ppg to the two which could allow Redick to tap into that 30-fantasy point upside. He is also the player I have paired with KCP in my main FD lineup.
Denzel Valentine is another cheap option at the two tonight. He is averaging over 25 fantasy ppg in his last three in a bad match-up versus the Raptors.
| 3pt | Stl | Blk | FD | DK | Y! | ||||||||||||||||
| SG | Tm | H/A | Opp | GP | MPG | FT% | m/g | Ppg | Reb/g | Apg | /g | /g | TO/G | FG% | Usage | Pts/g | Pts/g | Pts/g | $FD | $DK | $Y |
| DeMar DeRozan | TOR | H | CHI | 63 | 35.2 | 85% | 0.4 | 26.8 | 5.3 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.2 | 2.4 | 46% | 33.9% | 38.8 | 40.5 | 39.1 | $8600 | $7700 | $42 |
| Klay Thompson | GSW | A | DAL | 67 | 34.1 | 85% | 3.3 | 22.3 | 3.7 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 1.7 | 47% | 25.9% | 30.6 | 33.3 | 32.3 | $7000 | $7000 | $32 |
| Kentavious Caldwell-Pope | DET | A | BKN | 65 | 33.8 | 83% | 2.1 | 14.2 | 3.3 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.2 | 1.1 | 41% | 18.9% | 23.9 | 25.6 | 24.9 | $4700 | $5600 | $19 |
| Denzel Valentine | CHI | A | TOR | 45 | 15.8 | 77% | 1.2 | 4.9 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.8 | 36% | 15.7% | 10 | 11.1 | 10.6 | $4600 | $4500 | $10 |
| J.J. Redick | LAC | A | LAL | 68 | 28 | 88% | 2.5 | 14.7 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 1.3 | 44% | 21.9% | 19.9 | 21.9 | 21.1 | $4300 | $4500 | $12 |
Small Forward
I feel like Jimmy Butler makes each of my position coaches, a lot like Blake Griffin. It seems I have hidden man crushes embedded deep within my subconcious. The fact is Jimmy has scored over 45 fantasy ppg in two straight.
Harrison Barnes benefits from the best defensive match-up tonight for Dallas starting in the four, and should have a fruitful night in what for the Warriors is a close expected game at -4.
Like earlier mentioned, it is easy to pick on the Nets, and Marcus Morris comes into play with Brooklyn allowing the most fantasy ppg to the three.
Brandon Ingram is facing a Clippers team allowing the fourth most fantasy ppg to the three while averaging over 25 fantasy ppg in his last three.
Maurice Harkless, talk about boom-or-bust? The truth is, he does offer some near 30 fantasy point upside and benefits from the best defensive match-up from the Portland side of things. For $3,900 on FD? I will take a flyer in a GPP or two.
| 3pt | Stl | Blk | FD | DK | Y! | ||||||||||||||||
| SF | Tm | H/A | Opp | GP | MPG | FT% | m/g | Ppg | Reb/g | Apg | /g | /g | TO/G | FG% | Usage | Pts/g | Pts/g | Pts/g | $FD | $DK | $Y |
| Jimmy Butler | CHI | A | TOR | 64 | 36.7 | 87% | 1.2 | 23.3 | 6.2 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 2.1 | 44% | 26.5% | 40.9 | 42.8 | 41.5 | $8900 | $8900 | $48 |
| Harrison Barnes | DAL | H | GSW | 69 | 35.7 | 85% | 1 | 19.8 | 5.2 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 1.3 | 47% | 26% | 29 | 30.5 | 29.5 | $5800 | $6300 | $26 |
| Marcus Morris | DET | A | BKN | 69 | 33 | 79% | 1.6 | 14.2 | 4.8 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 1.1 | 42% | 20.1% | 24.1 | 25.6 | 24.9 | $5300 | $5400 | $18 |
| Brandon Ingram | LAL | H | LAC | 70 | 29.1 | 63% | 0.7 | 8.8 | 4.1 | 2 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 1.4 | 39% | 15.9% | 17.4 | 18.6 | 17.7 | $4500 | $5000 | $14 |
| Moe Harkless | POR | H | MIL | 65 | 29.2 | 60% | 1 | 10.3 | 4.7 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 49% | 15.6% | 20.6 | 21.9 | 21.1 | $3900 | $4000 | $15 |
Power Forward
Honestly, I am not in love with any player tonight at the four. I kind of feel like outside of my man crush on Blake Griffin I am really forcing choices, because I must pick two on FD. Griffin does however top the list tonight facing a Lakers team allowing the most fantasy ppg to the four.
Julius Randle would be my next hesitant choice tonight on the opposite side of the fence. He is averaging over 30 fantasy ppg in his last three with some slightly skewed numbers.
Serge Ibaka is up next on this field of crap. Did I mention how much I hate the four tonight? Ibaka gets a positive match-up tonight facing the Bulls and could easily drop a 30-spot.
Tobias Harris is facing Brooklyn, read above. They are allowing the second most fantasy ppg to the four.
Nikola Mirotic is a nice GPP play off the bench tonight and should come with some low ownership. If he gets the minutes, and shots, has a chance at a 30-spot.
| 3pt | Stl | Blk | FD | DK | Y! | ||||||||||||||||
| PF | Tm | H/A | Opp | GP | MPG | FT% | m/g | Ppg | Reb/g | Apg | /g | /g | TO/G | FG% | Usage | Pts/g | Pts/g | Pts/g | $FD | $DK | $Y |
| Blake Griffin | LAC | A | LAL | 50 | 33.9 | 75% | 0.5 | 21.5 | 8.5 | 5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 2.4 | 49% | 28.5% | 39.5 | 41.4 | 39.8 | $9300 | $8000 | $41 |
| Julius Randle | LAL | H | LAC | 62 | 28.9 | 71% | 0.2 | 13 | 8.7 | 3.8 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 2.4 | 48% | 21.4% | 29 | 30.7 | 29.1 | $6600 | $6800 | $30 |
| Serge Ibaka | TOR | H | CHI | 56 | 30.5 | 85% | 1.5 | 15.1 | 6.8 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 49% | 21.1% | 28.1 | 29.8 | 28.9 | $5700 | $5700 | $25 |
| Tobias Harris | DET | A | BKN | 70 | 31.5 | 85% | 1.3 | 16.2 | 5.2 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 1.2 | 48% | 21.7% | 26 | 27.5 | 26.6 | $5400 | $6000 | $21 |
| Nikola Mirotic | CHI | A | TOR | 58 | 22.9 | 78% | 1.6 | 9.5 | 5.2 | 1 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 39% | 19.5% | 19 | 20.6 | 19.8 | $4400 | $4600 | $13 |
Center
The Lakers are allowing the second most fantasy ppg to the center position, he is also a late bullet, and is a great piece to pair with either Paul, or Griffin tonight.
Jusus Nurkic whose name I still must look at to spell is the bargain at his price-point on the slate if you ask me. It is hard to argue with two back-to-back 40-spots in a positive match-up tonight.
Ivica Zubac who sounds like he often speaks very sternly has fallen back into favor and tops the bottom of the position coach today. He is averaging over 25 fantasy ppg in his last two with a 40 fantasy ppg upside.
| 3pt | Stl | Blk | FD | DK | Y! | ||||||||||||||||
| Center | Tm | H/A | Opp | GP | MPG | FT% | m/g | Ppg | Reb/g | Apg | /g | /g | TO/G | FG% | Usage | Pts/g | Pts/g | Pts/g | $FD | $DK | $Y |
| DeAndre Jordan | LAC | A | LAL | 70 | 31.6 | 49% | 0.0 | 12.5 | 13.5 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 70% | 15.3% | 33.6 | 35 | 33.6 | $7900 | $7000 | $27 |
| Jusuf Nurkic | POR | H | MIL | 45 | 17.9 | 50% | 0.0 | 8 | 5.8 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 1.8 | 51% | 23.4% | 17.7 | 18.9 | 17.7 | $6700 | $6900 | $27 |
| Ivica Zubac | LAL | H | LAC | 33 | 15.3 | 60% | 0.0 | 7.2 | 4.2 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 54% | 20.2% | 14.9 | 15.5 | 14.9 | $4300 | $5300 | $13 |
Good luck tonight, any questions email me at therealjerrycolvin@yahoo.com or hit me up on Twitter @realjerrycolvin
Go Dodgers!